This book is a joint endeavour of the three partner universities to develop a book with in-depth and state-of-art analysis for the academic community of East Asia and the world. Past disasters, like the 2008 Great Sichuan Earthquake in China and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, saw good efforts of East Asian countries in helping each other. Such a trend has been further strengthened in these countries' recent cooperation and mutual support in their fight against Covid-19 pandemic. While China, Japan, and South Korea are geographically and culturally contiguous and hence may share some characteristics in their risk management principles and practices, there may also be many significant differences due to their different socioeconomic and political systems. The commonalities and variances in East Asia risk management systems are also reflected by their recent responses to the Covid-19 challenges. While all three countries demonstrated overall success in controlling the epidemic, the measures taken by them were different. This research will be of interest to policymakers, scholars and economists.

From natural disasters to cyber-attacks to global pandemics, the modern risk environment is highly complex and challenges our fundamental understanding of risk and crisis management. All senior risk and crisis managers face a similar challenge: maximizing their organization's ability to prepare for a potential high-impact event. Blending practical insights with rigorous research, Strategic Risk and Crisis Management provides a range of realistic solutions for any operational environment. It introduces concepts, frameworks and processes that will allow businesses to not only survive but respond and recover at a time of maximum chaos and confusion. Authored by a recognized global authority on the strategic management of complex events, the book covers the integration of multiple stakeholders and the importance of information exchange and critical decision-making under pressure at strategic, tactical and operational levels. It also includes material on leadership, sense-making, resilience, wicked problems and the challenges of global urban resilience, as well as case studies with detailed analysis of organizational failures and the lessons learned, including COVID-19, the WannaCry attack, the Texas snowstorm, and the Gatwick Airport Drone Incident. Strategic Risk and Crisis Management is an essential read for professionals working in security, risk, crisis management and emergency response. It will also be a valuable text for university students taking modules on security, risk, emergency response and crisis management.

The greatest challenge we face in dealing with the complexity of our world? To think again and to think better. In a world that challenges us with ever more complicated problems, the quality of our thinking is a critical game-changer. As individuals, organisations, societies, and cultures, we need to cultivate thinking that is both insightful and farsighted. We must learn how to mobilise and apply intelligence that goes beyond the ordinary - one that continuously exceeds its own limits. The Postgraduate School of Thinking, at the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels (VUB), is an experimental program with the mission of challenging us all to achieve just that. Deploying an innovative combination of mobilisation methods, the program sets out to define the cognitive strategies, practices, and habits that are the marks of exceptional thinkers. This book features a variety of interdisciplinary research articles and discussions that invite us to explore our capacity for extraordinary thinking.

Teachers stand at the intersection of educational goals, directing students down the road to success or to the byways of diminished opportunities. They are the most important school variable effecting student achievement. Consequently, placing and retaining only qualified and effective teachers in our nation's classrooms is a critical responsibility of school leaders. Effective supervision and evaluation requires that the school leader possess the knowledge of effective instruction, exhibit skills in documentation of professional conduct, and embrace a professional approach with the will to place and keep students at the center of school policy and practice decisions. Supervising and evaluating teachers is a difficult, but essential work. Research shows that time and expertise are necessary to effectively supervise and to build a case for adverse employment decisions, when necessary. Threading the Evaluation Needle: The Documentation of Teacher Unprofessional Conduct addresses the legal and professional knowledge that structures discipline and dismissal in the public schools. The authors, based on their educational, legal, and research experience, provide templates for various types of documentation necessary to effectively build a case for discipline. This book seeks to give principals the tools and knowledge to institute in good faith a fair and accurate documentation system.

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors-including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck-are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.

In Even the Odds, Karen Firestone explains how risk assessment plays a prominent role in all aspects of life. We may all define risk, and our tolerance for it, somewhat differently, but we might all agree it plays a pivotal role in guiding us toward an optimal outcome. As a long-time investment advisor, Firestone has grown accustomed to interpreting risk on a daily basis. She has developed four core tenets of risk-taking we can all apply to anticipating, evaluating, and responding to the risks we face in our business, investing, and personal lives. These tenets are right-sizing; right-timing; relying on skill, knowledge, and experience; and staying skeptical about numbers, promises, and forecasts. Firestone's approach is both practical and accessible to individuals who are making important decisions, such as embarking on new career or life changes, starting or running an enterprise, making a sizable investment, or deciding how to balance across a full portfolio of assets. The book is rich with anecdotes and examples of how many prominent leaders in their fields encountered and dealt with risk along the way. Firestone also shares her own successes and failures, in particular when she decided to risk it all--a fabulous career managing billions of dollars at a premium investment company, her reputation, and the security at home that comes with a strong and stable job--to go out on her own. Even the Odds helps us understand the broader implications of risk--and how it guides our decision-making--so that we can improve outcomes across multiple facets of our lives, from our businesses and investments, to the personal choices we make.

Aware that a single crisis event can devastate their business, managers must be prepared for the worst from an expansive array of threats. The Routledge Companion to Risk, Crisis and Security in Business comprises a professional and scholarly collection of work in this critical field. Risks come in many varieties, and there is a growing concern for organizations to respond to the challenge. Businesses can be severely impacted by natural and man-made disasters including: floods, earthquakes, tsunami, environmental threats, terrorism, supply chain risks, pandemics, and white-collar crime. An organization's resilience is dependent not only on their own system security and infrastructure, but also on the wider infrastructure providing health and safety, utilities, transportation, and communication. Developments in risk security and management knowledge offer a path towards resilience and recovery through effective leadership in crisis situations. The growing body of knowledge in research and methodologies is a basis for decisions to safeguard people and assets, and to ensure the survivability of an organization from a crisis. Not only can businesses become more secure through risk management, but an effective program can also facilitate innovation and afford new opportunities. With chapters written by an international selection of leading experts, this book fills a crucial gap in our current knowledge of risk, crisis and security in business by exploring a broad spectrum of topics in the field. Edited by a globally-recognized expert on risk, this book is a vital reference for researchers, professionals and students with an interest in current scholarship in this expanding discipline.

This book presents the concept of the double hierarchy linguistic term set and its extensions, which can deal with dynamic and complex decision-making problems. With the rapid development of science and technology and the acceleration of information updating, the complexity of decision-making problems has become increasingly obvious. This book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the latest research in the field, including measurement methods, consistency methods, group consensus and large-scale group consensus decision-making methods, as well as their practical applications. Intended for engineers, technicians, and researchers in the fields of computer linguistics, operations research, information science, management science and engineering, it also serves as a textbook for postgraduate and senior undergraduate university students.

Info-metrics is a framework for modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. In Advances in Info-Metrics, Min Chen, J. Michael Dunn, Amos Golan, and Aman Ullah bring together a group of thirty experts to expand the study of info-metrics across the sciences and demonstrate how to solve problems using this interdisciplinary framework. Building on the theoretical underpinnings of info-metrics, the volume sheds new light on statistical inference, information, and general problem solving. The book explores the basis of information-theoretic inference and its mathematical and philosophical foundations. It emphasizes the interrelationship between information and inference and includes explanations of model building, theory creation, estimation, prediction, and decision making. Each of the nineteen chapters provides the necessary tools for using the info-metrics framework to solve a problem. The collection covers recent developments in the field, as well as many new cross-disciplinary case studies and examples. Designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across disciplines, this book provides a clear, hands-on experience for readers interested in solving problems when presented with incomplete and imperfect information.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2021, which was planned to be held in Toronto, ON, Canada, during June 6-10, 2021. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 12 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 74 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: pandemic responses; preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; and collaborative decision making processes.

"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

This is the first book to provide a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the ranking methods for interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets, multi-criteria decision-making methods with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets, and group decision-making methods with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Including numerous application examples and illustrations with tables and figures and presenting the authors' latest research developments, it is a valuable resource for researchers and professionals in the fields of fuzzy mathematics, operations research, information science, management science and decision analysis.

Balance the benefits of digital transformation with the associated risks with this guide to effectively managing cybersecurity as a strategic business issue. Important and cost-effective innovations can substantially increase cyber risk and the loss of intellectual property, corporate reputation and consumer confidence. Over the past several years, organizations around the world have increasingly come to appreciate the need to address cybersecurity issues from a business perspective, not just from a technical or risk angle. Cybersecurity for Business builds on a set of principles developed with international leaders from technology, government and the boardroom to lay out a clear roadmap of how to meet goals without creating undue cyber risk. This essential guide outlines the true nature of modern cyber risk, and how it can be assessed and managed using modern analytical tools to put cybersecurity in business terms. It then describes the roles and responsibilities each part of the organization has in implementing an effective enterprise-wide cyber risk management program, covering critical issues such as incident response, supply chain management and creating a culture of security. Bringing together a range of experts and senior leaders, this edited collection enables leaders and students to understand how to manage digital transformation and cybersecurity from a business perspective.

Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.

"Game Theory" will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.

This book is about improving human decision making and performance in complex, dynamic tasks. The defining characteristics of a dynamic decision task are that there are a number of decisions required, that decisions are interdependent and that the environment in which the decision is made is transient and feedback is pervasive. Examples of dynamic tasks include the sustainable management of renewable resources and how businesses might allocate resources for research and development (R&D) projects. Decision making in dynamic tasks can be improved through training with system dynamics-based interactive learning environments (ILE's) that include systematic debriefing. Some key features of the book include its didactic approach, numerous tables, figures, and the multidimensional evaluative model. Researchers can use the developed "evaluation model" to gauge various decision-aiding technologies. How to Improve Human Performance in Dynamic Tasks appeals to those interested in the design and evaluation of simulation-based decision support systems, as well as policy makers, students, researchers, and industrialists concerned by the issue of improving human performance in organizational tasks.

Individual decision making can often be wrong due to misinformation, impulses, or biases. Collective decision making, on the other hand, can be surprisingly accurate. In Democratic Reason, Helene Landemore demonstrates that the very factors behind the superiority of collective decision making add up to a strong case for democracy. She shows that the processes and procedures of democratic decision making form a cognitive system that ensures that decisions taken by the many are more likely to be right than decisions taken by the few. Democracy as a form of government is therefore valuable not only because it is legitimate and just, but also because it is smart. Landemore considers how the argument plays out with respect to two main mechanisms of democratic politics: inclusive deliberation and majority rule. In deliberative settings, the truth-tracking properties of deliberation are enhanced more by inclusiveness than by individual competence. Landemore explores this idea in the contexts of representative democracy and the selection of representatives. She also discusses several models for the "wisdom of crowds" channeled by majority rule, examining the trade-offs between inclusiveness and individual competence in voting. When inclusive deliberation and majority rule are combined, they beat less inclusive methods, in which one person or a small group decide. Democratic Reason thus establishes the superiority of democracy as a way of making decisions for the common good.

The essential reference for financial risk management

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the "Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated Sixth Edition, mirrors recent updates to the new two-level Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam, and is fully supported by GARP as the trusted way to prepare for the rigorous and renowned FRM certification. This valuable new edition includes an exclusive collection of interactive multiple-choice questions from recent FRM exams.

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Sixth Edition" supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion, with the full support of GARP, this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers.Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity riskExamines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instrumentsContains new material on extreme value theory, techniques in operational risk management, and corporate risk management

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The "FRM Handbook" is the official reference book for GARP's FRM certification program.

In Occupational Risk Control, Derek Viner brings together the theoretical aspects of his subject into a coherent whole and then connects them with the needs both of practitioners and educators. The theory embraced by the author spans ideas formed between the industrial revolution and the present day, but he focuses on relatively more recent theoretical developments chiefly associated with people-orientated approaches in the discipline of psychology applied to management practice and in the application of analytical ideas to engineering design. The author looks specifically at developments in defence and petro-chemical systems and also considers the whole theory of risk that originated in the 1970s with the advent of nuclear power stations, but which he argues has advanced little since that time. He also introduces the geological and botanical sciences, on the grounds that they contribute much to our understanding of how to set about classifying phenomena. To this mix, is added the contribution of law to our understanding of moral obligations and that of statistics to our understanding of the management of uncertainty. Viner argues that amongst the observable consequences of the absence of a holistic approach, is the tendency for regulators to form (misinformed) theory on which to base legislation and the prevalence of commercial systems leading to disparate efforts by different industries. The net effect of all this, he suggests, is seen in the disasters of the magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico explosion and oil spill.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.