This book offers a comprehensive introduction to decision-making in an MCDM framework. Designed as a tutorial, it presents the main concepts and methods to be applied, together with essential background information. This includes the concept of nondominance, Simon's bounded rationality, Tversky and Kahneman's prospect theory, and the concepts of behavioral vs. mathematical convergence and premature stopping put forward by Korhonen, Moskowitz and Wallenius. The book concludes with a non-technical review of many popular decision algorithms, including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), VIMDA, and a number of classic interactive man-machine algorithms. In essence, the book is a "one-stop" source on everything you need to know about managerial decision-making in the multiple-criteria setting.

The purpose of this book is to share with teachers a successful coaching model that has been researched, designed, piloted, evaluated and used across a range of schools. It is a peer coaching model which teachers use with teachers. It is a model which, as a coach or coachee, both parties will learn from. While the model is directed to teachers, it is equally applicable and transferable to other professions.The book is clear and concise with relevant background information, a step-by-step process, and includes case studies.

Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Vastfjall, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.

This book offers a practical solution for every organization that needs to monitor the effectiveness of their risk management. Written by a practising chief risk officer, Risk Maturity Models enables you to build confidence in your organization's risk management process through a tailored risk maturity model that lends itself to benchmarking. This is a management tool that is easy to design, practical and powerful, which can baseline and self-improve the maturity capabilities needed to deliver ERM benefits over time. This book guides the reader through comparing and tailoring a wealth of existing models, methods and reference standards and codes (such as ISO 31000 and COSO ERM). Covering 60 risk-related maturity models in clear comparison format, it helps risk professionals to select the approach best suited to their circumstances, and even design their own model. Risk Maturity Models provides focused messages for the risk management function, the internal audit function, and the Board. Combining proven practice and insight with realistic practitioner scenarios, this is essential reading for every risk, project, audit and board professional who wants to move their organization up the risk maturity curve.

The greatest challenge we face in dealing with the complexity of our world? To think again and to think better. In a world that challenges us with ever more complicated problems, the quality of our thinking is a critical game-changer. As individuals, organisations, societies, and cultures, we need to cultivate thinking that is both insightful and farsighted. We must learn how to mobilise and apply intelligence that goes beyond the ordinary - one that continuously exceeds its own limits. The Postgraduate School of Thinking, at the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels (VUB), is an experimental program with the mission of challenging us all to achieve just that. Deploying an innovative combination of mobilisation methods, the program sets out to define the cognitive strategies, practices, and habits that are the marks of exceptional thinkers. This book features a variety of interdisciplinary research articles and discussions that invite us to explore our capacity for extraordinary thinking.

Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.

"Game Theory" will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.

An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Ten lessons from history on the dos and don'ts of analyzing political risk Our baffling new multipolar world grows ever more complex, desperately calling for new ways of thinking, particularly when it comes to political risk. To Dare More Boldly provides those ways, telling the story of the rise of political risk analysis, both as a discipline and a lucrative high-stakes industry that guides the strategic decisions of corporations and governments around the world. It assesses why recent predictions have gone so wrong and boldly puts forward ten analytical commandments that can stand the test of time. Written by one of the field's leading practitioners, this incisive book derives these indelible rules of the game from a wide-ranging and entertaining survey of world history. John Hulsman looks at examples as seemingly unconnected as the ancient Greeks and Romans, the Third Crusade, the Italian Renaissance, America's founders, Napoleon, the Battle of Gettysburg, the British Empire, the Kaiser's Germany, the breakup of the Beatles, Charles Manson, and Deng Xiaoping's China. Hulsman makes sense of yesterday's world, and in doing so provides an invaluable conceptual tool kit for navigating today's. To Dare More Boldly creatively explains why political risk analysis is vital for business and political leaders alike, and authoritatively establishes the analytical rules of thumb that practitioners need to do it effectively.

The consequences of taking on risk can be ruinous to personal finances, professional careers, corporate survivability, and even nation states. Yet many risk managers do not have a clear understanding of the basics. Requiring no statistical or mathematical background, The Fundamental Rules of Risk Management gives you the knowledge to successfully handle risk in your organization. The book begins with a deep investigation into the behavioral roots of risk. Using both historical and contemporary contexts, author Nigel Da Costa Lewis carefully details the indisputable truths surrounding many of the behavioral biases that induce risk. He exposes the fallacy of the wisdom of experts, explains why you cannot rely on regulators, outlines the characteristics of the "glad game," and demonstrates how high intelligence or lack thereof can lead to loss of hard-earned wealth. He also discusses the weaknesses and failures of modern risk management. Moving on to elements often overlooked by risk managers, Dr. Lewis traces the link between corporate governance and risk management. He then covers core lessons surrounding the role of risk managers as well as the difficult subject of integrated, single lens analysis of risk. The book also explores aspects of spreadsheet risk and draws on lessons learned in the information systems and software engineering communities to provide guidance on selecting the right risk management system. It concludes with a discussion on the most dominant of risk measures-value at risk. Having a clear understanding about risk separates successful professionals, companies, and economies from history's forgotten failures. Through examples and case studies, this thought-provoking book shows how the rules of risk can work to protect and enhance investor value.

The purpose of this book is to articulate an aspirational vision for education, one that deeply engages students in complex and meaningful work and prepares students for the personal, social, and societal problems and opportunities facing them and our society. However, simply adopting an aspirational vision for a high quality learning environment isn't the real challenge. Most educators, students, and parents don't need a lot of convincing that schools can and should do more. Many educators espouse ambitious goals for their students, articulating the need for "21st century skills," and classrooms that are more innovative, responsive, and collaborative. However, so many of our classrooms fall woefully short of these goals. That's because knowing the why and the what is sometimes not enough. Teachers need help with the how. Accordingly, this book does not stop at simply articulating a vision of the possible; the book also helps individuals visualize what it can look like, and supports teachers, parents, and other engaged community members as they work towards closing the gap between what is possible and what is currently realized.

This new edition of Risk Management: Concepts and Guidance supplies a look at risk in light of current information, yet remains grounded in the history of risk practice. Taking a holistic approach, it examines risk as a blend of environmental, programmatic, and situational concerns. Supplying comprehensive coverage of risk management tools, practices, and protocols, the book presents powerful techniques that can enhance organizational risk identification, assessment, and management-all within the project and program environments. Updated to reflect the Project Management Institute's A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK (R) Guide), Fifth Edition, this edition is an ideal resource for those seeking Project Management Professional and Risk Management Professional certification. Emphasizing greater clarity on risk practice, this edition maintains a focus on the ability to apply "planned clairvoyance" to peer into the future. The book begins by analyzing the various systems that can be used to apply risk management. It provides a fundamental introduction to the basics associated with particular techniques, clarifying the essential concepts of risk and how they apply in projects. The second part of the book presents the specific techniques necessary to successfully implement the systems described in Part I. The text addresses project risk management from the project manager's perspective. It adopts PMI's perspective that risk is both a threat and an opportunity, and it acknowledges that any effective risk management practice must look at the potential positive events that may befall a project, as well as the negatives.Providing coverage of the concepts that many project management texts ignore, such as the risk response matrix and risk models, the book includes appendices filled with additional reference materials and supporting details that simplifying some of the most complex aspects of risk management.

A remarkable look at how the growth, technology, and politics of high-frequency trading have altered global financial markets In today's financial markets, trading floors on which brokers buy and sell shares face-to-face have increasingly been replaced by lightning-fast electronic systems that use algorithms to execute astounding volumes of transactions. Trading at the Speed of Light tells the story of this epic transformation. Donald MacKenzie shows how in the 1990s, in what were then the disreputable margins of the US financial system, a new approach to trading-automated high-frequency trading or HFT-began and then spread throughout the world. HFT has brought new efficiency to global trading, but has also created an unrelenting race for speed, leading to a systematic, subterranean battle among HFT algorithms. In HFT, time is measured in nanoseconds (billionths of a second), and in a nanosecond the fastest possible signal-light in a vacuum-can travel only thirty centimeters, or roughly a foot. That makes HFT exquisitely sensitive to the length and transmission capacity of the cables connecting computer servers to the exchanges' systems and to the location of the microwave towers that carry signals between computer datacenters. Drawing from more than 300 interviews with high-frequency traders, the people who supply them with technological and communication capabilities, exchange staff, regulators, and many others, MacKenzie reveals the extraordinary efforts expended to speed up every aspect of trading. He looks at how in some markets big banks have fought off the challenge from HFT firms, and how exchanges sometimes engineer technical systems to favor certain types of algorithms over others. Focusing on the material, political, and economic characteristics of high-frequency trading, Trading at the Speed of Light offers a unique glimpse into its influence on global finance and where it could lead us in the future.

How do we determine whose positions count in the making of foreign policy? Does it matter how these policymakers are configured? Does the decision-making process such people engage in influence the type of policy that results? This volume synthesizes the literatures on leadership, group dynamics, organizational theory, and coalition politics to demonstrate how the nature of the decision unit shapes foreign policy. Beginning with a systematic assessment of the position of decision-making theory in the study of international politics, contributors explore how policymakers' preferences become aggregated in the foreign policymaking process when there is a predominant leader or they are organized into single groups or coalitions. The book is comparative in nature examining the foreign policy decisions of countries from all regions of the world.

This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Given time, scientists reach consensus about the truth or falsity of a wide range of alleged hazards. Today, there is broad agreement that CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. On the other hand, research does not support claims that electromagnetic fields from transmission lines cause a noticeable increase of leukemia. But new allegations continuously arise. Are manufactured chemicals in the environment distorting normal hormonal processes in our bodies? Are genetically modified foods a cause for concern? Addressing one of the most vexing problems in risk policy, Allan Mazur asks how we can tell, at an early stage, how seriously we should take a new warning. To identify hallmarks that could help predict the truth or falsity of an alleged hazard, Mazur analyzes 31 health warnings raised during the 1950s and 1960s about diverse technologies, including fluoridation, DDT, cyclamate, nuclear weapons testing, and birth control pills. Among his considerations are the initial source of an alarm, the biases held by its primary 'sponsors, ' and the type of media coverage it receives. With 30 to 50 years of hindsight, he identifies characteristics - apparent from the outset of a controversy - that most effectively distinguish true warnings from false alarms. Early recognition and a timely response to a genuine hazard are important to protect our environment, health, and economic well-being. But if we act quickly and a warning turns out to be false, money is wasted, people are needlessly frightened, regulators lose credibility, and our ability to appropriately handle the next set of risks is compromised. Mazur's findings do not provide certainty about which of today's warnings will prove true and which will prove false. But they do help us to make informed judgments about where it is best and most reasonable to direct our worries and resources.

For businesses to grow and be successful their approach to resilience must be defined by a holistic and risk-focused outlook, rather than one which is narrow and dominated by event-oriented continuity practices. The Organizational Resilience Handbook shows that success is as much to do with innovation and the speed with which new products are brought to market as it is with organizations having to deal with unexpected crisis situations. It comprehensively covers the full breadth and depth of the field and introduces related topics such as security, safety, e-commerce, emerging technologies and customer experience. Through adopting a strategic and progressive approach, practitioners can apply the book's methodology to develop an in-depth understanding of resilience within their own organization and use it to effectively engage with the board and senior management in developing strategies for achieving greater resilience capability. A range of high-profile case studies, such as Mercedes, the UK's National Health Service, Alibaba and BP, help to illustrate the concept of resilience by detailing characteristics and behaviours which confirm its meaning. The Organizational Resilience Handbook is a practical guide to self-assessment, benchmarking performance and implementing resilience frameworks in any organization.

Richard Pettigrew offers an extended investigation into a particular way of justifying the rational principles that govern our credences (or degrees of belief). The main principles that he justifies are the central tenets of Bayesian epistemology, though many other related principles are discussed along the way. These are: Probabilism, the claims that credences should obey the laws of probability; the Principal Principle, which says how credences in hypotheses about the objective chances should relate to credences in other propositions; the Principle of Indifference, which says that, in the absence of evidence, we should distribute our credences equally over all possibilities we entertain; and Conditionalization, the Bayesian account of how we should plan to respond when we receive new evidence. Ultimately, then, this book is a study in the foundations of Bayesianism. To justify these principles, Pettigrew looks to decision theory. He treats an agent's credences as if they were a choice she makes between different options, gives an account of the purely epistemic utility enjoyed by different sets of credences, and then appeals to the principles of decision theory to show that, when epistemic utility is measured in this way, the credences that violate the principles listed above are ruled out as irrational. The account of epistemic utility set out here is the veritist's: the sole fundamental source of epistemic utility for credences is their accuracy. Thus, Pettigrew conducts an investigation in the version of Iepistemic utility theory known as accuracy-first epistemology. The book can also be read as an extended reply on behalf of the veritist to the evidentialist's objection that veritism cannot account for certain evidential principles of credal rationality, such as the Principal Principle, the Principle of Indifference, and Conditionalization.

'Brilliant and highly entertaining, this book is essential reading for every leader, regardless of age or experience.' - Admiral William McRaven, author of Make Your Bed -------- What if you could learn how to expect the unexpected? In business, like in life, foresight is crucial for avoiding pitfalls and disaster - and yet it's something we spend nearly no time developing. Retired four-star general Stan McChrystal has lived a life associated with the deadly risks of combat; he has been forced to analyse and prepare for situations he didn't even know were possible. As a business consultant, he has seen how hundreds of individuals and organizations - too often and to great cost - fail to mitigate risk. Why? Because they focus on the probability of something happening instead of the interface through which any and all risks can be managed. In Risk: A User's Guide, McChrystal presents a new system of responding to risk. He lays out ten dimensions of control which we can adjust at any given time, no matter the context: narrative, bias, action, timing, adaptability, communication, technology, diversity, structure and leadership. Drawing on compelling examples ranging from military history to the business world, and offering infinitely practical exercises to improve preparedness, McChrystal illustrates how these ten factors are almost always in effect - and how, by considering them constantly, individuals and organizations can exert mastery over every conceivable sort of risk that they might face. We may not be able to see into the future, but Risk gives us a framework for improving our resistance and building a strong defense against what we know -- and what we don't. -------- 'A brilliant user's guide that demonstrates how managing risk is about how we lead, rather than getting mathematical equations right.' - Annie Duke, bestselling author of Thinking In Bets and How To Decide 'Measured, meticulous, and filled with practical, pragmatic wisdom from both war and peace, McChrystal's clear-eyed, unsentimental guidance cuts to the heart of our precarious existence. A must-read leadership bible.' - James Kerr, bestselling author of Legacy 'An essential playbook on mastering all dimensions of risk. For soldiers, educators, CEOs, entrepreneurs, government leaders, and everyone in between.' - Keith Krach, former Undersecretary of State and CEO of DocuSign

Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants' own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.

Lara Buchak sets out an original account of the principles that govern rational decision-making in the face of risk. A distinctive feature of these decisions is that individuals are forced to consider how their choices will turn out under various circumstances, and decide how to trade off the possibility that a choice will turn out well against the possibility that it will turn out poorly. The orthodox view is that there is only one acceptable way to do this: rational individuals must maximize expected utility. Buchak's contention, however, is that the orthodox theory (expected utility theory) dictates an overly narrow way in which considerations about risk can play a role in an individual's choices. Combining research from economics and philosophy, she argues for an alternative, more permissive, theory of decision-making: one that allows individuals to pay special attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario (among other 'global features' of gambles). This theory, risk-weighted expected utility theory, better captures the preferences of actual decision-makers. Furthermore, it isolates the distinct roles that beliefs, desires, and risk-attitudes play in decision-making. Finally, contra the orthodox view, Buchak argues that decision-makers whose preferences can be captured by risk-weighted expected utility theory are rational. Thus, Risk and Rationality is in many ways a vindication of the ordinary decision-maker-particularly his or her attitude towards risk-from the point of view of even ideal rationality.

The essential reference for financial risk management

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the "Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated Sixth Edition, mirrors recent updates to the new two-level Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam, and is fully supported by GARP as the trusted way to prepare for the rigorous and renowned FRM certification. This valuable new edition includes an exclusive collection of interactive multiple-choice questions from recent FRM exams.

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Sixth Edition" supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion, with the full support of GARP, this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers.Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity riskExamines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instrumentsContains new material on extreme value theory, techniques in operational risk management, and corporate risk management

"Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The "FRM Handbook" is the official reference book for GARP's FRM certification program.