Reginald Van Feisty, owner of the world-famous chocolate factory, Dutch Delight Chocolates, is excited about his brand-new recipe for chocolate. But, before he can manufacture even the first chocolate bar, the recipe is stolen! Have your students discover who stole Van Feisty's famous chocolate recipe and they'll not only be great detectives, they'll be masters of logical thinking. There are nine suspects, but which one is guilty? This mystery becomes a vehicle for teaching logical thinking. In solving the mystery, students will: differentiate between valid conclusions and invalid assumptions, use syllogisms to reach valid assumptions, recognize false premises, solve deductive matrix puzzles, and decode a secret message. Grades 5-8

A challenge to the conventional wisdom surrounding financial risk, providing insight into why easy solutions to control the financial system are doomed to fail Finance plays a key role in the prosperity of the modern world-but it also brings grave dangers. We seek to manage those threats with a vast array of sophisticated mathematical tools and techniques of financial risk management. Too often, though, we fail to address the greatest risk-the peril posed by our own behavior. Jon Danielsson argues that critical risk is generated from within, through the interactions of individuals and perpetuated by their beliefs, objectives, abilities, and prejudices. He asserts that the widespread belief that risk originates outside the financial system frustrates our ability to measure and manage it, and the likely consequences of new regulations will help alleviate small-scale risks but, perversely, encourage excessive risk taking. Danielsson uses lessons from past and recent crises to show that diversity is the best way to safeguard our financial system.

This new edition of Risk Management: Concepts and Guidance supplies a look at risk in light of current information, yet remains grounded in the history of risk practice. Taking a holistic approach, it examines risk as a blend of environmental, programmatic, and situational concerns. Supplying comprehensive coverage of risk management tools, practices, and protocols, the book presents powerful techniques that can enhance organizational risk identification, assessment, and management-all within the project and program environments. Updated to reflect the Project Management Institute's A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK (R) Guide), Fifth Edition, this edition is an ideal resource for those seeking Project Management Professional and Risk Management Professional certification. Emphasizing greater clarity on risk practice, this edition maintains a focus on the ability to apply "planned clairvoyance" to peer into the future. The book begins by analyzing the various systems that can be used to apply risk management. It provides a fundamental introduction to the basics associated with particular techniques, clarifying the essential concepts of risk and how they apply in projects. The second part of the book presents the specific techniques necessary to successfully implement the systems described in Part I. The text addresses project risk management from the project manager's perspective. It adopts PMI's perspective that risk is both a threat and an opportunity, and it acknowledges that any effective risk management practice must look at the potential positive events that may befall a project, as well as the negatives.Providing coverage of the concepts that many project management texts ignore, such as the risk response matrix and risk models, the book includes appendices filled with additional reference materials and supporting details that simplifying some of the most complex aspects of risk management.

What if you had the power to change ANYTHING in your life? Finances, Health, Happiness, even your DNA. Mind Change will help give you the tools to tap into the tremendous potential of the Mind/Body connection. In a world full of "life hacks," you can finally learn how to "hack" into the biochemistry of your brain. The information within this book has helped countless people transform their lives by changing their minds.

After finding herself at death's door and then healing from numerous "incurable" diseases, Heather McKean was on a mission to help empower others to have their own success story. After diving into the cutting edge information on neuroplasticity, epigenetics, psychoneuroimmunology and more...Mind Change takes key research and ideas and makes them practical and easy to digest. Using concepts from Neuro-Linguistic Programming, Hypnosis, EMDR, EFT, and many other useful tools, Mind Change takes all of the best information and slims it down into a few fast and easy-to-follow steps.

Whether you have "tried everything" and you are still stuck in pain, dis-ease, depression, bad relationships, addiction or you are simply not living your BEST life; Mind Change will enable you to live a healthier and happier life. If you are tired of living in a powerless or victimized state and you are ready to challenge everything you thought you knew, then Mind Change is for you!

Are you ready to change your mind? It's time to explore the newest and most unfamiliar territory known to man...the landscape of our mind. See you on the other side!

Given time, scientists reach consensus about the truth or falsity of a wide range of alleged hazards. Today, there is broad agreement that CFCs destroy stratospheric ozone. On the other hand, research does not support claims that electromagnetic fields from transmission lines cause a noticeable increase of leukemia. But new allegations continuously arise. Are manufactured chemicals in the environment distorting normal hormonal processes in our bodies? Are genetically modified foods a cause for concern? Addressing one of the most vexing problems in risk policy, Allan Mazur asks how we can tell, at an early stage, how seriously we should take a new warning. To identify hallmarks that could help predict the truth or falsity of an alleged hazard, Mazur analyzes 31 health warnings raised during the 1950s and 1960s about diverse technologies, including fluoridation, DDT, cyclamate, nuclear weapons testing, and birth control pills. Among his considerations are the initial source of an alarm, the biases held by its primary 'sponsors, ' and the type of media coverage it receives. With 30 to 50 years of hindsight, he identifies characteristics - apparent from the outset of a controversy - that most effectively distinguish true warnings from false alarms. Early recognition and a timely response to a genuine hazard are important to protect our environment, health, and economic well-being. But if we act quickly and a warning turns out to be false, money is wasted, people are needlessly frightened, regulators lose credibility, and our ability to appropriately handle the next set of risks is compromised. Mazur's findings do not provide certainty about which of today's warnings will prove true and which will prove false. But they do help us to make informed judgments about where it is best and most reasonable to direct our worries and resources.

Listening is Learning: Conversations Between 20th and 21st Century Teachers is a unique approach for meeting the challenges of today's teachers. In sixteen chapters of conversations between veterans and young teachers, readers will discover engaged teaching from the previous century that captures the attention of students. The classroom is the perhaps the last vestige of hope where children will discover the joy of being together without intermediary devices. Conversations invite reflection. Listening to respectful discussions between young and older teachers allows readers to slow down and take stock of their own positions and beliefs. Young teachers will come away with not only rich ideas but also a sense of encouragement to meet the challenges of digitally driven students. Face-to-face classrooms are the best hope for students to discover their best selves, without distractions so prevalent in social media. If teachers choose to show students from the first day that they care about them and are willing to listen to their lives, they will build trusted relationships--essential for students--and for teachers.

Richard Pettigrew offers an extended investigation into a particular way of justifying the rational principles that govern our credences (or degrees of belief). The main principles that he justifies are the central tenets of Bayesian epistemology, though many other related principles are discussed along the way. These are: Probabilism, the claims that credences should obey the laws of probability; the Principal Principle, which says how credences in hypotheses about the objective chances should relate to credences in other propositions; the Principle of Indifference, which says that, in the absence of evidence, we should distribute our credences equally over all possibilities we entertain; and Conditionalization, the Bayesian account of how we should plan to respond when we receive new evidence. Ultimately, then, this book is a study in the foundations of Bayesianism. To justify these principles, Pettigrew looks to decision theory. He treats an agent's credences as if they were a choice she makes between different options, gives an account of the purely epistemic utility enjoyed by different sets of credences, and then appeals to the principles of decision theory to show that, when epistemic utility is measured in this way, the credences that violate the principles listed above are ruled out as irrational. The account of epistemic utility set out here is the veritist's: the sole fundamental source of epistemic utility for credences is their accuracy. Thus, Pettigrew conducts an investigation in the version of Iepistemic utility theory known as accuracy-first epistemology. The book can also be read as an extended reply on behalf of the veritist to the evidentialist's objection that veritism cannot account for certain evidential principles of credal rationality, such as the Principal Principle, the Principle of Indifference, and Conditionalization.

As an Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) practitioner have you ever wondered "How can I shape my career trajectory to reach a C-suite position in business?" Or perhaps-for those who do not aspire to positions of this nature; "How can I develop my ability to persuade and influence top management more effectively?" The 10 Step MBA for Safety and Health Practitioners answers these questions to enable you to achieve your personal and professional OSH goals. Presented over 10 steps encompassing a typical MBA programme, a transformational model establishes key themes which are deemed critical in understanding the world of business to exert greater influence: Strategic - aligning OSH to the overall direction of a business and creating a lasting OSH purpose that all stakeholders can relate to Cross-functional - understanding the different parts of an organisation and integrating OSH within business functions and ways of working Distinctive - looking for creative new ways of presenting OSH data and information to generate interest and enthusiasm. From strategy and leadership to organisational behaviour and human resource management, from marketing and brand management to interpersonal skills, this book shows you how to combine the best of your specialist knowledge with important business tools, so you can embed OSH at the heart of your company. The book is an indispensable reference for OSH practitioners who want to make a positive change in their careers and become more effective in influencing and leading change.

Lara Buchak sets out an original account of the principles that govern rational decision-making in the face of risk. A distinctive feature of these decisions is that individuals are forced to consider how their choices will turn out under various circumstances, and decide how to trade off the possibility that a choice will turn out well against the possibility that it will turn out poorly. The orthodox view is that there is only one acceptable way to do this: rational individuals must maximize expected utility. Buchak's contention, however, is that the orthodox theory (expected utility theory) dictates an overly narrow way in which considerations about risk can play a role in an individual's choices. Combining research from economics and philosophy, she argues for an alternative, more permissive, theory of decision-making: one that allows individuals to pay special attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario (among other 'global features' of gambles). This theory, risk-weighted expected utility theory, better captures the preferences of actual decision-makers. Furthermore, it isolates the distinct roles that beliefs, desires, and risk-attitudes play in decision-making. Finally, contra the orthodox view, Buchak argues that decision-makers whose preferences can be captured by risk-weighted expected utility theory are rational. Thus, Risk and Rationality is in many ways a vindication of the ordinary decision-maker-particularly his or her attitude towards risk-from the point of view of even ideal rationality.

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.

In Occupational Risk Control, Derek Viner brings together the theoretical aspects of his subject into a coherent whole and then connects them with the needs both of practitioners and educators. The theory embraced by the author spans ideas formed between the industrial revolution and the present day, but he focuses on relatively more recent theoretical developments chiefly associated with people-orientated approaches in the discipline of psychology applied to management practice and in the application of analytical ideas to engineering design. The author looks specifically at developments in defence and petro-chemical systems and also considers the whole theory of risk that originated in the 1970s with the advent of nuclear power stations, but which he argues has advanced little since that time. He also introduces the geological and botanical sciences, on the grounds that they contribute much to our understanding of how to set about classifying phenomena. To this mix, is added the contribution of law to our understanding of moral obligations and that of statistics to our understanding of the management of uncertainty. Viner argues that amongst the observable consequences of the absence of a holistic approach, is the tendency for regulators to form (misinformed) theory on which to base legislation and the prevalence of commercial systems leading to disparate efforts by different industries. The net effect of all this, he suggests, is seen in the disasters of the magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico explosion and oil spill.

Very Short Introductions: Brilliant, Sharp, Inspiring Everyone negotiates. Whenever any person, company, or country needs someone else to accomplish something, they must negotiate. Negotiation is essential for peace and international relations, but also for economically efficient trades and bargains in business, and for problem solving skills in workplaces, families, and interpersonal interactions. This Very Short Introduction provides a comprehensive and accessible review of both conceptual and behavioural approaches to the human process of negotiation. Carrie Menkel-Meadow draws on research in constituent fields of human psychology, diplomacy, law, business, anthropology, game theory, decision making, international relations, sociology, public policy, and economics, suggesting models for creative problem solving to often intractable problems. Considering that most people are tense and frightened of what they perceive to be scarce resource confrontations with opponents and competitors, Menkel-Meadow offers different ways to plan for and approach others to solve human problems and seek solutions that satisfy both parties. Alongside this, Menkel-Meadow summarises recent research on the variations of human behaviour, providing vivid examples from history and current affairs to solve some of the most difficult problems. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Globalization is a complex, forceful, legal and social process that takes place within an integrated whole with no regard for geographical boundaries. Financial globalization is criticized for consequential increases in economic volatility and disruptions to monetary policy autonomy. Globalization increases the vulnerability of economies to shock while restraining the apparatus that central banks and policy authorities have for dealing with said shocks engendered at home and abroad. Globalization and corporate governance interact to deal with governance issues arising from the globalization of business. Corporate governance is, to a great extent, a set of means through which outside investors protect themselves against expropriation by insiders. Risk management is at the centre of all financial actions. Moreover, risk management is a two-step course: firstly, it is necessary to uncover what risks exist in an investment and then deal with those risks in a way best-suited to a corporation's investment objectives. Financial markets have been liberalized around the globe. Banks advance their capacity to administer credit risk function with greater leverage by lending more of their assets to risky borrowers. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market advancements are undividable and funding circumstances are tied to fluctuations in the control of market-based financial intermediaries. Risk management has become a momentous element of company management after the modern financial crisis.

This book is about risk conceptions, experiences and reflections. It applies the concept of the risk triangle, with its societal, organisational and personal angles, to two areas of inquiry: financial markets and the military, seeking to demonstrate the challenges, dilemmas and, in many ways, also the impossibilities of risk analysis and risk management. Drawing on empirical and micro- and macro-level analysis, this innovative work will appeal to students of political science, economics and business as well as to risk professionals and risk-takers.

Planning with Multiple Criteria -- Investigation, Communication and Choice provides a creative and practical, down to earth perspective on how to tackle the complex planning problems characterized by multiple criteria or measures of performance.

The book is intended for all who are interested in the theory and practice of planning, no matter whether the field is economic planning, strategic planning, town planning, ecological planning, energy planning -- or just planning itself as a purposeful activity in social systems. It introduces basic notions of how and why we plan, both as individuals and within the context of an organization. In particular, it provides guidelines for how to choose between alternative actions so as to obtain the best balance between the multiple criteria we choose to represent our objectives. In so doing it develops an operational framework for planning which integrates the concepts of values, objectives, criteria, preferences, decisions, and conflicts.

In the wake of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, many are asking what, if anything, can be done to prevent large-scale disasters. How is it that we know more about the hazards of modern American life than ever before, yet the nation faces ever-increasing losses from such events? History shows that disasters are not simply random acts. Where is the logic in creating an elaborate set of fire codes for buildings, and then allowing structures like the Twin Towers-tall, impressive, and risky-to go up as design experiments? Why prepare for terrorist attacks above all else when floods, fires, and earthquakes pose far more consistent threats to American life and prosperity? The Disaster Experts takes on these questions, offering historical context for understanding who the experts are that influence these decisions, how they became powerful, and why they are only slightly closer today than a decade ago to protecting the public from disasters. Tracing the intertwined development of disaster expertise, public policy, and urbanization over the past century, historian Scott Gabriel Knowles tells the fascinating story of how this diverse collection of professionals-insurance inspectors, engineers, scientists, journalists, public officials, civil defense planners, and emergency managers-emerged as the authorities on risk and disaster and, in the process, shaped modern America.

What is a fair distribution of resources and other goods when individuals are partly responsible for their achievements? This book develops a theory of fairness incorporating a concern for personal responsibility, opportunities and freedom. With a critical perspective, it makes accessible the recent developments in economics and philosophy that define social justice in terms of equal opportunities. It also proposes new perspectives and original ideas. The book separates mathematical sections from the rest of the text, so that the main concepts and ideas are easily accessible to non-technical readers. It is often thought that responsibility is a complex notion, but this monograph proposes a simple analytical framework that makes it possible to disentangle the different concepts of fairness that deal with neutralizing inequalities for which the individuals are not held responsible, rewarding their effort, respecting their choices, or staying neutral with respect to their responsibility sphere. It dwells on paradoxes and impossibilities only as a way to highlight important ethical options and always proposes solutions and reasonable compromises among the conflicting values surrounding equality and responsibility. The theory is able to incorporate disincentive problems and is illustrated in the examination of applied policy issues such as: income redistribution when individuals may be held responsible for their choices of labor supply or education; social and private insurance when individuals may be held responsible for their risky lifestyle; second chance policies; the measurement of inequality of opportunities and social mobility.

Behind heart disease and cancer, medical error is now listed as one of the leading causes of death. Of the many medical errors that may lead to injury and death, diagnostic failure is regarded as the most significant. Generally, the majority of diagnostic failures are attributed to the clinicians directly involved with the patient, and to a lesser extent, the system in which they work. In turn, the majority of errors made by clinicians are due to decision making failures manifested by various departures from rationality. Of all the medical environments in which patients are seen and diagnosed, the emergency department is the most challenging. It has been described as a "wicked" environment where illness and disease may range from minor ailments and complaints to severe, life-threatening disorders. The Cognitive Autopsy is a novel strategy towards understanding medical error and diagnostic failure in 42 clinical cases with which the author was directly involved or became aware of at the time. Essentially, it describes a cognitive approach towards root cause analysis of medical adverse events or near misses. Whereas root cause analysis typically focuses on the observable and measurable aspects of adverse events, the cognitive autopsy attempts to identify covert cognitive processes that may have contributed to outcomes. In this clinical setting, no cognitive process is directly observable but must be inferred from the behavior of the individual clinician. The book illustrates unequivocally that chief among these cognitive processes are cognitive biases and other flaws in decision making, rather than knowledge deficits.

Engaging Resistance: How Ordinary People Successfully Champion Change offers an empirically based explanation that expands our understanding about the nature of resistance to organizational change and the effects of champion behavior. The text presents a new model describing how resistance occurs over time and details what change proponents can do throughout three engagement periods to effectively work with hesitant colleagues. The book's findings are illuminated by examples of six different resistance cases, embedded in the transformation sagas of two real-world organizations. A fundamental premise of this work is that resistance should not be something to avoid or squash as people work to change their organizations. In fact, resistance can be viewed as a natural, healthy part of an organic process. When engaged properly, resisters can help to improve change efforts and strengthen an organization's overall transformation.

The ultimate guide to improving ACT scores with practical strategies and examples, comprehensive subject reviews, practice tests and explanations, and much more! Every college-bound student wants the best test scores possible. But with a wide variety of test-prep books available, how do you know you're choosing the right one to help you most? Fortunately, that just happens to be Dr. Gary Gruber's life's work: rather than rote memorization of individual problem solutions, his Gruber Method teaches adaptive strategies to think about test problems as categories, allowing students to solve thousands of questions quickly and effectively. In Gruber's Complete ACT Guide 2019-2020, you'll find all the resources you need to develop the test-taking skills and critical-thinking strategies that are proven to increase your test score. With 33 essential strategies illustrated with examples, three complete practice tests, and much more, you'll see how, for over thirty years, the Gruber Method has helped millions of students master the ability to solve any ACT problem-even the most difficult-easily and efficiently. So read Gruber's Complete ACT Guide 2019-2020, study its lessons, and watch your ACT score increase and your future possibilities expand. Also included in Gruber's Complete ACT Guide 2019-2020: The World's Shortest Practice Test for the ACT (R) Exam: estimate your score in only 20 questions! The 101 most important math questions every student needs to be able to answer Nineteen simple-to-learn math strategies for solving every type of question by breaking them down to their easiest forms Mini Math Refresher + Complete Math Refresher Nine Reading Comprehension Strategies for focus and clarity Complete Grammar and Usage Refresher A special section covering the ACT (R) Writing Test Three complete practice tests with explanatory answers Explanations of why you got questions wrong-plus how to get them right Exclusive four-hour study program for the week before the test

This volume offers new, convincing empirical evidence on topical risk- and risk management-related issues in diverse settings, using an interdisciplinary approach. The authors advance compelling arguments, firmly anchored to well-accepted theoretical frameworks, while adopting either qualitative or quantitative research methodologies. The book presents interviews and surveys with risk managers to gather insights on risk management and risk disclosure in practice. Additionally, the book collects and analyzes information contained in public reports to capture risk disclosure and perceptions on risk management impacts on companies' internal organization. It sheds light on financial and market values to understand the effect of risk management on actual and perceived firm's performance, respectively. Further, it examines the impacts of risk and risk management on society and the economy. The book improves awareness and advances knowledge on the complex and changeable risk and risk management fields of study. It interweaves among topical, up-to-date issues, peculiar, under-investigated contexts, and differentiated, complementary viewpoints on the same themes. Therefore, the book is a must-read for scholars and researchers, as well as practitioners and policy makers, interested in a better understanding of risk and risk management studies in different fields.

This book illustrates how to access the right information for making the best decisions during turbulent times. It is written from an experienced-based perspective that is beneficial for those looking for the development and improvement of the decision-making process. The approach is centered on the author's experience in developing and implementing effective and efficient approaches to decision-making in business and government. Based on those experiences, this book provides insights into how to improve the decision making process of your organization, whether it be large or small. For decision makers and those providing market information for making decisions, this book provide guidelines for a framework which includes systems thinking. For those interested in change management and corporate governance, the book presents examples where it was done well and some examples where it was not and the ensuring consequences. Praise for Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process... "This is an absolutely incredible book by a distinguished practitioner. The range of knowledge and experience that Vince Barabba has had is astounding. I urge everyone who is interested in complex, messy problems to read this amazing book." --Ian I. Mitroff "...Vince has masterfully blended the art of organizational respect with the science of data inquiry to drive change and realize strategic vision. A master storyteller, he does not just teach, his book brings his learnings to life in a meaningful way that if carefully listened to, can change the course of a career." -- Paul D'Alessandro Principal, Health Industries, PwC US "In his latest book, Vince Barabba integrates his vast knowledge from 50 years of dedicated work in both the public and private sectors in order to provide leaders with an actionable framework for radically improving how their organizations collect and use information to make the best decisions for all the wicked messes that now appear in our global village... This book can save your company from living in the dark with false assumptions about all your key stakeholders." -- Ralph H. Kilmann, Ph.D. CEO, Kilmann Diagnostics Co-Author, The Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) "Absorbing just a few of the many smart ideas in this book will make you a better leader and decision maker. Thinking systemically about how the hard-earned lessons from Vince Barabba's brilliant career apply to your enterprise could make you a great one." - Chunka Mui Co-Author, A Brief History of a Perfect Future and Billion Dollar Lessons "...if you are interested in 'thinking in systems,' this book is for you. The 'On Star' story demonstrates to you how the initial product-centered thinking was proselytized to 'thinking in systems'." -- John Pourdehnad Visiting Professor, IESE Business School and Faulty of Systems Leadership, Thomas Jefferson University "In writing Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process: How to Avoid Burnt Toast, Vince Barabba is addressing the limits of knowledge management systems which enable 'organizations as usual' to share best practices on how to scrape toast faster and cheaper... The examples shared by Vince, from his first-hand experiences in corporate America or his services as a marketing consultant, contribute invaluable clarity to his goal of providing a "sketch of an Inquiry Center Learning and Support System" for those with the ambition to lead efforts to work smarter, not harder, firmly against the grain of 'organizations as usual'..." -- Bill Bellows, Ph.D., President, InThinking Services Adjunct Professor, California State University, Northridge and Southern Utah University Advisory Council Member and Former Deputy Director, The W. Edwards Deming Institute (R) "In his 'last book', Vince weaves the experiences and learning of a lifetime into whole cloth of insight and wisdom. He helps us to find relevant information from a rapidly changing world and apply it to making good decisions. This is a masterpiece of knowledge presented in a very entertaining way." -- Carl Spetzler Chairman, Strategic Decisions Group International LLC "This is a truly inspiring and mind changing book directly relevant for our times... Vince has shown through his remarkable work that business and government are a force for good when leaders think long term, work with, not against nature, and use their influence and resources for the many, not the few..." -- Osvald Bjelland Founder and President, Xynteo Founder, The Performance Theatre Foundation