In his entertaining and informative book "Graphic Discovery," Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with "Picturing the Uncertain World," a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a "New Yorker" cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world.

"Picturing the Uncertain World" takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.

We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read "Picturing the Uncertain World" and learn how.

Dieses Open-Access-Buch zur Consumer Decision Neuroscience verfolgt das Ziel, durch die Integration neurowissenschaftlicher Methoden in die Kaufer- und Konsumentenverhaltensforschung die Identifikation verhaltensrelevanter, neurophysiologischer Variablen zu ermoeglichen, um darauf aufbauend eine Theorieerweiterung zu schaffen. In ausgewahlten Beitragen werden Kaufer- und Konsumentenentscheidungsprozesse anhand verschiedener methodischer, neurowissenschaftlich fundierter Herangehensweisen empirisch untersucht, um die Entscheidungsprozesse umfassend beschreiben, effektiver unterstutzen und erfolgreich vorhersagen zu koennen.

What if our ability to make decisions was more a matter of chance than a rational process? It has long been recognized that the mind decides, the body obeys. However, as the author of this book argues, in reality it might just be the opposite. The decision-making process is produced by cerebral matter. It is a random phenomenon that results from competing processes within a network whose architecture has changed little since the first vertebrates. This book presents a 'bottom-up' approach to understanding decision making, starting from the fundamental question: what are the basic properties that a neural network of decision making needs to possess? Combining data drawn from phylogeny and physiology, the book provides a general framework for the neurobiology of decision-making in vertebrates, and explains how it evolved from the lamprey to the apes. It also looks at the consequences of such a framework: how it impacts our capacity for reasoning, and considers some aspects of the pathophysiology of higher brain functions. It ends with an open discussion of more philosophical concepts such as the nature of Free-will. Written in a lively and accessible style, the book presents an exciting perspective on understanding decision making.

The information in this book will provide board members with simple tools to become an effective member of the board, even in the first term. Board members are introduced to Values Governance (R) system that incorporates community process techniques, curricular, and instructional innovations. This new model provides greater efficiency, effectiveness, and coherence in the governance of the board. With the completion of this survival guide, the new board member is ready to join the board with some skills in hand.

RAMP is a structured process for evaluating and controlling risk in major projects and this practical, working handbook is for everyone involved in the financial, commercial, legal or engineering aspects of a project. Providing a framework for identifying, analysing and responding to risks and then placing a financial value on them, the RAMP process covers the whole life of the asset involved, including post-completion reviews and methods for controlling any risks that remain, to increase the chances of overall project success. It can be applied to `hard' projects involving construction of physical assets or `soft' projects involving business acquisitions or the launch of a new product.

This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments of product design. It discusses how business and government can work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on environmental studies for engineering and applied science students.

In Zeiten der Wissensgesellschaft, der Globalisierung und der damit verbundenen internationalen vergleichenden Studien nimmt die Untersuchung Bezug auf die Frage nach der Konkurrenzfahigkeit der Modernisierung des Systems Schule der letzten Jahre. Im Mittelpunkt der aktuellen Reformbestrebungen steht der Schuler. Vernachlassigt wird trotz der Pluralitat der erziehungswissenschaftlichen Theorien die Frage nach einer angemessenen Qualifikation der primaren, praktischen Agenten des Reformprozesses. Stehen die theoretischen Anspruche an eine adaquate, ideale Lehrerprofessionalitat im Widerspruch zum demografischen Alterungsprozess unserer Gesellschaft und somit der Lehrerkollegien? Am Beispiel der Bildungsreform des Bundeslandes Baden-Wurttemberg wurde nach Richtungsweisungen fur diese scheinbare Dichotomie mit der Absicht der qualitatssichernden Optimierung und gesundheitsfoerdernden Balancierung der Anforderungen und Herausforderungen des schulischen Umfeldes und den subjektiv-personellen Potenzen der Lehrer gesucht.

Amazingly, the complexities of voting theory can be explained and resolved with comfortable geometry. A geometry which unifies such seemingly disparate topics as manipulation, monotonicity, and even the apportionment issues of the US Supreme Court. Although directed mainly toward students and others wishing to learn about voting, experts will discover here many previously unpublished results. As an example, a new profile decomposition quickly resolves the age-old controversies of Condorcet and Borda, demonstrates that the rankings of pairwise and other methods differ because they rely on different information, casts serious doubt on the reliability of a Condorcet winner as a standard for the field, makes the famous Arrow's Theorem predictable, and simplifies the construction of examples.

Actuaries have access to a wealth of individual data in pension and insurance portfolios, but rarely use its full potential. This book will pave the way, from methods using aggregate counts to modern developments in survival analysis. Based on the fundamental concept of the hazard rate, Part I shows how and why to build statistical models, based on data at the level of the individual persons in a pension scheme or life insurance portfolio. Extensive use is made of the R statistics package. Smooth models, including regression and spline models in one and two dimensions, are covered in depth in Part II. Finally, Part III uses multiple-state models to extend survival models beyond the simple life/death setting, and includes a brief introduction to the modern counting process approach. Practising actuaries will find this book indispensable, and students will find it helpful when preparing for their professional examinations.

1. Fully aligned to the NEBOSH International Certificate in Health and Safety (IGC) 2019 syllabus 2. An authoritative and helpful study guide for the c.30,000 students a year worldwide pursuing the IGC qualification 3. Written by renowned health and safety expert and former NEBOSH Vice Chairman Dr Ed Ferrett 4. Accessible text design, clearly mapping out key learning outcomes and revision points for easy learning and memorization 5. Companion guide to the 4th edition of the renowned International Health and Safety at Work textbook

This innovative textbook makes the tools and applications of game theory and strategic reasoning both fascinating and easy to understand. Each chapter focuses a specific strategic situation as a way of introducing core concepts informally at first, then more fully, with a minimum of mathematics. At the heart of the book is a diverse collection of strategic scenarios, not only from business and politics, but from history, fiction, sports, and everyday life as well. With this approach, students don't just learn clever answers to puzzles, but instead acquire genuine insights into human behaviour. Written for major courses in economics, business, political science, and international relations, this textbook is accessible to students across the undergraduate spectrum.

Schulen haben seit Jahren neue Freiheiten der Schulentwicklung. Diese Forschungsarbeit betrachtet dabei die Rolle der Schulleiter und geht der Frage nach, wie Schulen in Deutschland, OEsterreich und der Schweiz diese Freiheiten in der Berufsorientierung und im UEbergangsmanagement von der Schule zum Beruf empfinden und nutzen. Mit einem Methodenmix werden Good-Practice-Schulen in der internationalen Bodenseeregion identifiziert. Die Sichtweisen der entsprechenden Schulleiter und Experten der Schulentwicklung wurden in Leitfadeninterviews erhoben und analysiert. In diesem Beitrag zur UEbergangs-, Schulleiter- und Regionalforschung werden unterschiedliche Schulleitertypen herausgearbeitet und daraus ein heuristisches Modell sowie praxisrelevante und bildungspolitische Empfehlungen abgeleitet.

In Being Rational and Being Right, Juan Comesana argues for a cluster of theses related to the rationality of action and belief. His starting point is that rational action requires rational belief but tolerates false belief. From there, Comesana provides a novel account of empirical evidence according to which said evidence consists of the content of undefeated experiences. This view, which Comesana calls Experientialism, differs from the two main views of empirical evidence on offer nowadays: Factualism, according to which our evidence is what we know, and Psychologism, according to which our experiences themselves are evidence. He reasons that Experientialism fares better than these rival views in explaining different features of rational belief and action. Comesana embeds this discussion in a Bayesian framework, and discusses in addition the problem of normative requirements, the easy knowledge problem, and how Experientialism compares to forms of evidentialism and reliabilism.

We find risks everywhere-from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Die Jahre 2005 bis 2014 wurden durch die UN-Vollversammlung zur Weltdekade Bildung fur nachhaltige Entwicklung ausgerufen. Dabei ist das theoretische Fundament vielen Bildungsakteuren nur unzureichend bekannt. Dies - so die zentrale These dieser Arbeit - hat seine Ursache im mangelnden nachhaltigkeitstheoretischen Bezug der Bildung fur nachhaltige Entwicklung. Die Arbeit bietet diesen theoretischen Rahmen. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage nach den Werten in der Natur. Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage wird ein differenzierter Blick auf die Phanomenbereiche der Werte und der Natur genommen, um aus dieser Perspektive die beiden konkurrierenden Konzepte der starken und schwachen Nachhaltigkeit zu reflektieren.