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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
* How is science represented by the media?
* Who defines what counts as a risk, threat or hazard, and
why?
* In what ways do media images of science shape public
perceptions?
* What can cultural and media studies tell us about current
scientific controversies?
Media, Risk and Science is an exciting exploration into an array of
important issues, providing a much needed framework for
understanding key debates on how the media represent science and
risk. In a highly effective way, Stuart Allan weaves together
insights from multiple strands of research across diverse
disciplines. Among the themes he examines are: the role of science
in science fiction, such as Star Trek; the problem of
'pseudo-science' in The X-Files; and how science is displayed in
science museums. Science journalism receives particular attention,
with the processes by which science is made 'newsworthy' unravelled
for careful scrutiny. The book also includes individual chapters
devoted to how the media portray environmental risks, HIV-AIDS,
food scares (such as BSE or 'mad cow disease' and GM foods) and
human cloning. The result is a highly topical text that will be
invaluable for students and scholars in cultural and media studies,
science studies, journalism, sociology and politics.
 |
Be Careful
(Paperback)
Nancy Cole
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This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance,
examines the empirical behavior of corporate default risk. A new
and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based
on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with
data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is
given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across
firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of
collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das,
Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and
Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been
separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to
provide access to the latter for those less focused on the
mathematical foundations.
A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time
than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or
correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources
of default correlation, which are particularly important to include
when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans
will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a
substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a
corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default,"
a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the
theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and
Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of
the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the
proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.
The concept of rationality is a common thread through the human and
social sciences -- from political science to philosophy, from
economics to sociology, and from management science to decision
analysis. But what counts as rational action and rational behavior?
Jose Luis Bermudez explores decision theory as a theory of
rationality. Decision theory is the mathematical theory of choice
and for many social scientists it makes the concept of rationality
mathematically tractable and scientifically legitimate.
Yet rationality is a concept with several dimensions and the theory
of rationality has different roles to play. It plays an
action-guiding role (prescribing what counts as a rational solution
of a given decision problem). It plays a normative role (giving us
the tools to pass judgment not just on how a decision problem was
solved, but also on how it was set up in the first place). And it
plays a predictive/explanatory role (telling us how rational agents
will behave, or why they did what they did).
This controversial but accessible book shows that decision theory
cannot play all of these roles simultaneously. And yet, it argues,
no theory of rationality can play one role without playing the
other two. The conclusion is that there is no hope of taking
decision theory as a theory of rationality.
The Handbook of Rational and Social Choice provides an overview of
issues arising in work on the foundations of decision theory and
social choice over the past three decades. Drawing on work by
economic theorists mainly, but also with contributions from
political science, philosophy and psychology, the collection shows
how the related areas of decision theory and social choice have
developed in their applications and moved well beyond the basic
models of expected utility and utilitarian approaches to welfare
economics.
Containing twenty-three contributions, in many cases by leading
figures in their fields, the handbook shows how the normative
foundations of economics have changed dramatically as more general
and explicit models of utility and group choice have been
developed. This is perhaps the first time these developments have
been brought together in a manner that seeks to identify and make
accessible the recent themes and developments that have been of
particular interest to researchers in recent years. The collection
will be of particular value to researchers in economics with
interests in utility or welfare but it will also be of interest to
any social scientist or philosopher interested in theories of
rationality or group decision-making.
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