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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
The greatest challenge we face in dealing with the complexity of our world? To think again and to think better. In a world that challenges us with ever more complicated problems, the quality of our thinking is a critical game-changer. As individuals, organisations, societies, and cultures, we need to cultivate thinking that is both insightful and farsighted. We must learn how to mobilise and apply intelligence that goes beyond the ordinary - one that continuously exceeds its own limits. The Postgraduate School of Thinking, at the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels (VUB), is an experimental program with the mission of challenging us all to achieve just that. Deploying an innovative combination of mobilisation methods, the program sets out to define the cognitive strategies, practices, and habits that are the marks of exceptional thinkers. This book features a variety of interdisciplinary research articles and discussions that invite us to explore our capacity for extraordinary thinking.
Do the reasons we have for acting as we do derive from our concerns
and desires, or are there objective values in the world that we are
rationally required to pursue and protect? Alan Goldman argues for
the internalist or subjectivist view of practical reasons on the
grounds that it is simpler, more unified, and more comprehensible
than the rival objectivist position. He provides a naturalistic
account of practical rationality in terms of coherence within sets
of desires or motivational states, and between motivations,
intentions, and actions. Coherence is defined as the avoidance of
self-defeat, the defeat of one's own deepest concerns. The demand
for coherence underlies both practical and theoretical reason and
derives from the natural aims of belief and action. In clarifying
which desires create reasons, drawing on the literature of
cognitive psychology, Goldman offers conceptual analyses of
desires, emotions, and attitudes. Reasons are seen to derive
ultimately from our deepest occurrent concerns. These concerns
require no reasons themselves but provide reasons for many more
superficial desires.
Since the mid-1990s risk management has undergone a dramatic
expansion in its reach and significance, being transformed from an
aspect of management control to become a benchmark of good
governance for banks, hospitals, schools, charities and many other
organizations. Numerous standards for risk management practice have
been produced by a variety of transnational organizations. While
these many designs and blueprints are accompanied by ideals of
enterprise, value production, and good governance, it is argued
that the rise of risk management has also coincided with an
intensification of auditing and control processes. The legalization
and bureacratization of organizational life has increased because
risk management has created new demands for proof and evidence of
action. In turn, these demands have generated new risks to
reputation.
MOPGP is an international conference series devoted to multi-objective p- gramming and goal programming (MOP/GP). This conference brings together researchers and practitioners from different disciplines of Computer Science, Operational Research, Optimisation Engineering, Mathematical Programming and Multi-criteria Decision Analysis. Theoretical results and algorithmic developments in the ?eld of MOP and GP are covered, including practice and applications of MOP/GP in real-life situations. The MOP/GP international conferences are organised in a biennial cycle. The previous editions were held in United Kingdom (1994), Spain (1996), Canada (1998), Poland (2000), Japan (2002), and Tunisia (2004). The Seventh me- ing (MOPGP'06) was organised in the Loire Valley (Center-West of France) by X. Gandibleux, (University of Nantes, chairman) and V. T'Kindt (University of Tours, co-chairman). The conference was hosted during three days (June 12-14, 2006) by the old city hall of Tours which is located in the city centre of Tours. The conference comprised four plenary sessions (M. Ehrgott; P. Perny; R. Caballero and F. Ruiz; S. Oussedik) and six semi-plenary sessions (N. Jussien and V. Barichard; D. Corne and J. Knowles; H. Hoogeveen; M. Wiecek; E. Bampis; F. Ben Abdelaziz) and 82 regular talks. The (semi-)plenary speakers were invited, while the regular talks were selected by the international scienti?c committee composed of 61 eminent researchers on basis of a 4-pages abstract.
Across the world organizations continue to be damaged and brought down
by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers
abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This
despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of
business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating
requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning
numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers which have been
put in place in response. So what's going on? Why isn't compliance
working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines
how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and
lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and
succeed.
We find risks everywhere-from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Sound risk management often involves a combination of both mathematical and practical aspects. Taking this into account, Understanding Risk: The Theory and Practice of Financial Risk Management explains how to understand financial risk and how the severity and frequency of losses can be controlled. It combines a quantitative approach with a more informal style, giving readers a blend of analysis and intuition. Divided into four parts, the book begins by introducing the basics of risk management and the behavior of financial instruments. The next section focuses on regulatory capital standards and models, addressing value-at-risk (VaR) models, portfolio credit risk, tranching, operational risk, and the Basel accords. The author then deals with asset/liability management (ALM) and liquidity management. The last part explores structured finance and a variety of new trading instruments, including inflation-linked products, sophisticated equity basket options, and convertible bonds. With numerous exercises, figures, and examples throughout, this book offers valuable insight on various aspects of financial risk management.
In an age of globalization, widely distributed systems, and rapidly advancing technological change, IT professionals and their managers must understand that risk is ever present. The key to project success is to identify risk and subsequently deal with it. The CIO's Guide to Risk addresses the many faces of risk, whether it be in systems development, adoption of bleeding edge tech, the push for innovation, and even the march toward all things social media. Risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, contingency planning, and risk monitoring and control are all addressed on a macro as well as micro level. The book begins with a big-picture view of analyzing technology trends to evaluate risk. It shows how to conceptualize trends, analyze their effect on infrastructure, develop metrics to measure success, and assess risk in adapting new technology. The book takes an in-depth look at project-related risks. It explains the fundamentals of project management and how project management relates to systems development and technology implementation. Techniques for analyzing project risk include brainstorming, the Delphi technique, assumption analysis, and decision analysis. Metrics to track and control project risks include the Balance Scorecard, project monitoring and reporting, and business and technology metrics. The book also takes an in-depth look at the role of knowledge management and innovation management in identifying, assessing, and managing risk. The book concludes with an executive's guide to the legal and privacy issues related to risk management, as well overviews of risks associated with social media and mobile environments. With its checklists, templates, and worksheets, the book is an indispensable reference on risk and information technology.
This book is designed as an introduction to recent social science
work on risk and is intended primarily for students in sociology,
social psychology, and psychology, although it will also be useful
for those studying political science, government, public policy,
and economics. It is written by leading experts actively involved
in research in the field.
In Zeiten der Wissensgesellschaft, der Globalisierung und der damit verbundenen internationalen vergleichenden Studien nimmt die Untersuchung Bezug auf die Frage nach der Konkurrenzfahigkeit der Modernisierung des Systems Schule der letzten Jahre. Im Mittelpunkt der aktuellen Reformbestrebungen steht der Schuler. Vernachlassigt wird trotz der Pluralitat der erziehungswissenschaftlichen Theorien die Frage nach einer angemessenen Qualifikation der primaren, praktischen Agenten des Reformprozesses. Stehen die theoretischen Anspruche an eine adaquate, ideale Lehrerprofessionalitat im Widerspruch zum demografischen Alterungsprozess unserer Gesellschaft und somit der Lehrerkollegien? Am Beispiel der Bildungsreform des Bundeslandes Baden-Wurttemberg wurde nach Richtungsweisungen fur diese scheinbare Dichotomie mit der Absicht der qualitatssichernden Optimierung und gesundheitsfoerdernden Balancierung der Anforderungen und Herausforderungen des schulischen Umfeldes und den subjektiv-personellen Potenzen der Lehrer gesucht.
At no time in the history of public education has there been such a dramatic discrepancy between accelerated standards and expectations and adequate funding for our schools. Much has been written about how to achieve new expectations in the realm of student achievement and the need for accountability and the restructuring of how education dollars are spent. Unfortunately, most of the input regarding the need for "belt-tightening" is unaccompanied by tangible solutions or suggestions and results only in hollow rhetoric or convenient political sound bytes. This journey into meaningful avenues for cost-savings in public education is clearly an exception. Any school official who reads this book will find a number of viable possibilities for saving money. The authors offer time-tested, practical ideas, which are proven to work. Features cost-saving tips for: * District and school-level administration * Curriculum, instruction, vocational and special education, student services, and media * Building and grounds, maintenance, pupil transportation, and food services * Community colleges The authors briefly review the literature for: * Managing decline in resources and discuss the problem of declining funds for schools and solution strategies * Generating alternative revenue sources in education Samples of strategic plans are also included. For educational administrators, state governors and senators, school boards, and school business officials.
Across the world, organizations continue to be damaged and brought down by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This is despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers that have been put in place in response. So why isn't compliance working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and succeed. Written for any organization and businesses, this book provides clear, thorough and practical guidance for practitioners and decision-makers. It explains in layman's terms the skills, tools and mindset needed to develop and deliver a best practice compliance and ethics programme - one that meets the requirements made by law, stakeholders and society, and protects your organization from risk of fines, penalties and reputational damage. But this is also a book for all those interested in how to build employee engagement and motivation. The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics demonstrates the value - including competitive advantage, career satisfaction, employee and customer loyalty, and brand enhancement - that a truly effective compliance and ethics programme can bring, when it works hand in hand with a values-based culture of shared ownership.
In this classic work, John Steinbruner argues that the time is ripe for exploration of a new theoretical perspective on the decision-making process in government. He suggests that the cybernetic theory of decision as developed in such diverse fields as information theory, mathematical logic, and behavioral psychology generates a systematic but non-rational analysis that seems to explain quite naturally decisions that are puzzling when viewed from the rational perspective. When combined with the basic understanding of human mental operations developed in cognitive psychology, the cybernetic theory of decision presents a striking picture of how decision makers deal with the intense uncertainty and fundamental value conflicts that arise in bureaucratic politics. To illustrate the advantages of using cybernetic theory, Steinbruner analyzes the issue of sharing nuclear weapons among the NATO allies.
These notes represent our summary of much of the recent research that has been done in recent years on approximations and bounds that have been developed for compound distributions and related quantities which are of interest in insurance and other areas of application in applied probability. The basic technique employed in the derivation of many bounds is induc tive, an approach that is motivated by arguments used by Sparre-Andersen (1957) in connection with a renewal risk model in insurance. This technique is both simple and powerful, and yields quite general results. The bounds themselves are motivated by the classical Lundberg exponential bounds which apply to ruin probabilities, and the connection to compound dis tributions is through the interpretation of the ruin probability as the tail probability of a compound geometric distribution. The initial exponential bounds were given in Willmot and Lin (1994), followed by the nonexpo nential generalization in Willmot (1994). Other related work on approximations for compound distributions and applications to various problems in insurance in particular and applied probability in general is also discussed in subsequent chapters. The results obtained or the arguments employed in these situations are similar to those for the compound distributions, and thus we felt it useful to include them in the notes. In many cases we have included exact results, since these are useful in conjunction with the bounds and approximations developed."
Die Entwicklung der Schularchitektur in Deutschland hatte, gunstigere gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen vorausgesetzt, einen weitaus glucklicheren Verlauf nehmen koennen. Einer gedeihlicheren Entwicklung des Schulbaus in den deutschen Landern standen jedoch einerseits materielle Zwange, andererseits ideologische Bestrebungen traditionell als grosses Hindernis entgegen. Padagogische Belange gerieten allzuoft ins Hintertreffen. Mit dieser Problematik setzt sich die Arbeit auseinander: Die Schulbauentwicklung in Deutschland wird beginnend mit dem spaten 18. und fruhen 19. Jahrhundert anhand von historischen und zeitgenoessischen Beispielen erlautert. Neben der architektonischen Entwicklung sind in diesem Zusammenhang die mit ihr einhergehenden padagogischen und gesellschaftlichen Veranderungen von Bedeutung.
President Obama has on a number of occasions rejected policies that have been tried and do not work. Legislation such as No Child Left Behind and policies such as Race to the Top are neither effective nor based on sound research. Educational policy-making is now, more than ever, the preserve of politicians, advocacy foundations, and lobbyists parading as corporate leaders. Teachers have little voice; their role is merely to be held responsible for policies foisted upon them. In Transforming Schools: Alternative Perspectives on School Reform, our aim is to provide alternative perspectives to the dead-end educational policies by which our governments have become consumed. We turn the spotlight on a select range of topics that have become the focus of concern and we consider the implications for school improvement. These topics include school reform in general, the achievement gap, literacy, standardized assessment, social justice and ecojustice, aesthetic and moral education, and general education.
Provides a range of up-to-date case studies to help students understand the real world practice of risk management in organisations Includes an overview situating the subject of risk management in the wider context of corporate governance, aiding student understanding The case studies on Tesco and Birmingham City Council are radically updated to reflect recent controversies, whilst a case study on cyber risk is added for the new edition
Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.
Current edition description Written by two of the leading experts in critical thinking, this book focuses on an integrated, universal concept of critical thinking that is both substantive and applicable to any and every situation in which human thinking is necessary. It provides readerse with the basic intellectual tools needed for life-long learning, helping them understand the mind and how its three functions - thinking, feeling, motivation - influence and are influenced by one another. This book fosters the development of fair-minded critical thinking. Features the intellectual standards: clarity, precision, accuracy, logicalness, significance, depth, breadth, and fairness; The importance of good questioning; and intellectual tools to read for deep and lasting comprehension, and to write in ways that show clarity of reasonability of thought. For all that want to improve their critical thinking skills to apply to their job or life. The text features: Think for Yourself activities - throughout each chapter. (Ex. pp 29, 127). ~Help students take ownership of basic concepts as they learn them. Practical and learnable format. ~Simplifies complex ideas to make learning easier for students. Focus on thinking across the disciplines. (Ex. pp 119-120). ~Helps students to think within the various disciplines, rather than memorizing facts. Students are taught to learn to think like an historian, like a scientist, like a psychologist, etc. Critical thinking focus - When students internalize intellectual standards - such as clarity, precision, accuracy, logicalness, significance, depth, breadth, and fairness - they use them on a daily basis to upgrade their thinking, and to assess the thinking of others. (Ex. 12, 152). ~Gives students intellectual standards they can use in every dimension of their thinking. Features intellectual tools to read for deep and lasting comprehension, and to write in ways that show clarity of reasonability of thought. (Ex. 133). ~Teaches students to read closely and write substantively. Good questions are the key to good thinking - Thinkers who know how to ask relevant questions in context are better able to think their way through complex issues. (Ex. pp 83, 87, 93). ~Teaches students to ask the questions the best thinkers ask. Website - www.criticalthinking.org. ~Links students to the world's largest and most prestigious critical thinking website and provides forums for student and faculty discussions. International approach - with translations into German, French, Spanish, Japanese, Chinese, Russian, and Malay. ~Provides students with the opportunity to read portions of the text in their native language. "This book is well-written, lucid and contains abundant examples and applications that not only enliven the subject matter but present relevant contexts for building understanding and advanced critical thinking. In addition, it is faithful to the complexity and work required to improve one's thinking. It does not soft-pedal the challenge but actually throws down the gauntlet to the worthy Reader to pick it up." --Stephen J. Knopp, Ph.D., Ohio University "This concise version is a more comprehensive and robust textbook. Many Critical Thinking books cover thinking from a narrow angle, but Paul and Elder offer a model of critical thinking that can be applied not only to academic disciplines but also to life in general." --Connie Wolfe, Surry Community College
This book aims to encourage a more reflective, multidisciplinary approach to public safety, and the 'reenfranchisement' of those affected by this new phenomenon. Over the past decade health and safety has become a major issue of public interest. There are countless stories of health and safety activities interfering with public life, preventing some beneficial activity from taking place - even creating absurd or dangerous situations. On the one hand, risk assessment, properly conducted, is highly beneficial - it save lives and prevents injuries. But on the other, it can damage public life. Why has this come about, and does it have to be like that? The authors examine the origins of the problem, look critically at the tools used by safety assessors and their underlying assumptions, and consider important differences between public life and industry (where the approaches largely originated). They illuminate the whole with an analysis of legal requirements, attitudes of stakeholders, and recent research on risk perception and decision making. The result is a profound and important analysis of risk and safety culture and a framework for managing public safety more effectively.
Very Short Introductions: Brilliant, Sharp, Inspiring Everyone negotiates. Whenever any person, company, or country needs someone else to accomplish something, they must negotiate. Negotiation is essential for peace and international relations, but also for economically efficient trades and bargains in business, and for problem solving skills in workplaces, families, and interpersonal interactions. This Very Short Introduction provides a comprehensive and accessible review of both conceptual and behavioural approaches to the human process of negotiation. Carrie Menkel-Meadow draws on research in constituent fields of human psychology, diplomacy, law, business, anthropology, game theory, decision making, international relations, sociology, public policy, and economics, suggesting models for creative problem solving to often intractable problems. Considering that most people are tense and frightened of what they perceive to be scarce resource confrontations with opponents and competitors, Menkel-Meadow offers different ways to plan for and approach others to solve human problems and seek solutions that satisfy both parties. Alongside this, Menkel-Meadow summarises recent research on the variations of human behaviour, providing vivid examples from history and current affairs to solve some of the most difficult problems. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.
This publication provides updates on the bond market in Indonesia since 2017. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2017: Indonesia.
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