Winning takes many forms. For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making - rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. And to help us all win more. 'An absolutely fascinating book' THE GAME, The Times football pod How do you spot the opportunities that others miss? How do you turn a team's performance around? How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve? As chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. Making Decisions reveals Smith's unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. Whatever the power of data, humans aren't finished yet. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith's book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.

Kids love exploring new ways of solving problems, especially in fun and challenging puzzle formats. In Math and Logic Puzzles That Make Kids Think!, the author presents several variations on Sudoku-the most well-known type of logic puzzle-in an easy-to-use, exciting format perfect for any math classroom. These language-independent logic puzzles provide kids with great problems to stretch how they think and reason. Each puzzle variation utilizes some of the basic strategies of Sudoku puzzles, but each one also draws upon other areas of mathematics-ordering of numbers, properties of geometric shapes, basic operations, or enriched number sense. This book provides teachers with puzzles arranged by difficulty level that can be used to support and enhance students' mathematical investigations. It also provides a new and exciting context for the development of students' deductive reasoning skills, which can lay the foundation for further mathematical exploration. Grades 6-8

Very Short Introductions: Brilliant, Sharp, Inspiring Everyone negotiates. Whenever any person, company, or country needs someone else to accomplish something, they must negotiate. Negotiation is essential for peace and international relations, but also for economically efficient trades and bargains in business, and for problem solving skills in workplaces, families, and interpersonal interactions. This Very Short Introduction provides a comprehensive and accessible review of both conceptual and behavioural approaches to the human process of negotiation. Carrie Menkel-Meadow draws on research in constituent fields of human psychology, diplomacy, law, business, anthropology, game theory, decision making, international relations, sociology, public policy, and economics, suggesting models for creative problem solving to often intractable problems. Considering that most people are tense and frightened of what they perceive to be scarce resource confrontations with opponents and competitors, Menkel-Meadow offers different ways to plan for and approach others to solve human problems and seek solutions that satisfy both parties. Alongside this, Menkel-Meadow summarises recent research on the variations of human behaviour, providing vivid examples from history and current affairs to solve some of the most difficult problems. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

This book is about improving human decision making and performance in complex, dynamic tasks. The defining characteristics of a dynamic decision task are that there are a number of decisions required, that decisions are interdependent and that the environment in which the decision is made is transient and feedback is pervasive. Examples of dynamic tasks include the sustainable management of renewable resources and how businesses might allocate resources for research and development (R&D) projects. Decision making in dynamic tasks can be improved through training with system dynamics-based interactive learning environments (ILE's) that include systematic debriefing. Some key features of the book include its didactic approach, numerous tables, figures, and the multidimensional evaluative model. Researchers can use the developed "evaluation model" to gauge various decision-aiding technologies. How to Improve Human Performance in Dynamic Tasks appeals to those interested in the design and evaluation of simulation-based decision support systems, as well as policy makers, students, researchers, and industrialists concerned by the issue of improving human performance in organizational tasks.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

"Financial Risk Forecasting" is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques.

Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use - that risk is exogenous - and what happens when those assumptions are violated.

Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book.

The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing.

The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com - which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Winning takes many forms. For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making - rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. And to help us all win more. 'An absolutely fascinating book' THE GAME, The Times football pod How do you spot the opportunities that others miss? How do you turn a team's performance around? How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve? As chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. Making Decisions reveals Smith's unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. Whatever the power of data, humans aren't finished yet. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith's book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.

Recent legal developments challenge how valid the concept of mental capacity is in determining whether individuals with impairments can make decisions about their care and treatment. Kong defends a concept of mental capacity but argues that such assessments must consider how relationships and dialogue can enable or disable the decision-making abilities of these individuals. This is thoroughly investigated using an interdisciplinary approach that combines philosophy and legal analysis of the law in England and Wales, the European Court of Human Rights, and the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. By exploring key concepts underlying mental capacity, the investigation concludes that both primary relationships and capacity assessments themselves must display key competencies to ensure that autonomy skills are promoted and encouraged. This ultimately provides scope for justifiable interventions into disabling relationships and articulates the dialogical practices that help better situate, interpret, and understand the choices and actions of individuals with impairments.

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.

The most memorable gift you can give to a new graduate is sound advice for a successful life. In his second book, author Clark Gaither gives his best advice in The Graduate's Handbook, highlighting the hardest easy lessons he's ever learned. For a head start on a life of passion and purpose, this gift book imbues graduates with hope, inspiration, motivation, and the truth about living life on life's terms. The Graduate's Handbook is more than a thoughtful gift book-it offers insight on careers, procrastination, reality-based living, fear, failure, and relationships. Page after page includes profound quotations from the author himself and dozens of successful authors, philosophers, and historical figures. "We are glorious creatures of the universe destined to accomplish, to build, to produce, to create, to innovate." Graduates can make this book extra special by writing their future goals in the front, which they can look back on years from now to see how far they've come! Each gift book includes an area for inscription to make it a personal gift from you. Whether you're buying for a high school or college graduate, this keepsake will guide and teach them for many years to come!

This collection of essays deals with the situated management of risk in a wide variety of organizational settings - aviation, mental health, railway project management, energy, toy manufacture, financial services, chemicals regulation, and NGOs. Each chapter connects the analysis of risk studies with critical themes in organization studies more generally based on access to, and observations of, actors in the field. The emphasis in these contributions is upon the variety of ways in which organizational actors, in combination with a range of material technologies and artefacts, such as safety reporting systems, risk maps and key risk indicators, accomplish and make sense of the normal work of managing risk - riskwork. In contrast to a preoccupation with disasters and accidents after the event, the volume as whole is focused on the situationally specific character of routine risk management work. It emerges that this riskwork is highly varied, entangled with material artefacts which represent and construct risks and, importantly, is not confined to formal risk management departments or personnel. Each chapter suggests that the distributed nature of this riskwork lives uneasily with formalized risk management protocols and accountability requirements. In addition, riskwork as an organizational process makes contested issues of identity and values readily visible. These 'back stage/back office' encounters with risk are revealed as being as much emotional as they are rationally calculative. Overall, the collection combines constructivist sensibilities about risk objects with a micro-sociological orientation to the study of organizations.

The Money Shot provides a real look into the lives of a professional athlete and how this new-found fame and fortune can change their lives. Walking through the financial maze can be challenging for athletes who really need to focus on game performance. The tips and tools in the Money Shot allows athletes and their families to clearly identify how to find success in the money game so they can focus on career success as an athlete. Exploring the "do's" and "don'ts" of saving, spending, using, and growing money, the Money Shot is designed to provide the roadmap to successful financial performance by laying out the steps play byplay. Athletes and their families gain knowledge to make the right moves for their financial present and future, and confidence to know they are performing at peak levels in the money game.

Over the last 25 years, evolutionary game theory has grown with theoretical contributions from the disciplines of mathematics, economics, computer science and biology. It is now ripe for applications. In this book, Daniel Friedman--an economist trained in mathematics--and Barry Sinervo--a biologist trained in mathematics--offer the first unified account of evolutionary game theory aimed at applied researchers. They show how to use a single set of tools to build useful models for three different worlds: the natural world studied by biologists; the social world studied by anthropologists, economists, political scientists and others; and the virtual world built by computer scientists and engineers. The first six chapters offer an accessible introduction to core concepts of evolutionary game theory. These include fitness, replicator dynamics, sexual dynamics, memes and genes, single and multiple population games, Nash equilibrium and evolutionarily stable states, noisy best response and other adaptive processes, the Price equation, and cellular automata. The material connects evolutionary game theory with classic population genetic models, and also with classical game theory. Notably, these chapters also show how to estimate payoff and choice parameters from the data. The last eight chapters present exemplary game theory applications. These include a new coevolutionary predator-prey learning model extending rock-paper-scissors; models that use human subject laboratory data to estimate learning dynamics; new approaches to plastic strategies and life cycle strategies, including estimates for male elephant seals; a comparison of machine learning techniques for preserving diversity to those seen in the natural world; analyses of congestion in traffic networks (either internet or highways) and the "price of anarchy "; environmental and trade policy analysis based on evolutionary games; the evolution of cooperation; and speciation. As an aid for instruction, a web site provides downloadable computational tools written in the R programming language, Matlab, Mathematica and Excel.

Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.

Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) is of worldwide significance, and is strongly related to the detection of damage in engineering structures (buildings, bridges, aircrafts, ships, pressure vessels, etc.) using non-invasive techniques (ultrasound, X-rays, Radar, neutrons, thermography, vibrations, acoustic emission, etc.). Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing VI includes the contributions to the 6th International Conference in Non-Destructive Testing (Brussels, Belgium, 27-29 May 2015). The book intends to give the latest updates in the field of NDT, and is organized in chapters on high impact subjects, such as: - Applications of NDT methods related to cultural heritage structures; - Materials like ceramics, polymer and composites; - Railways; - Glass panels; - Steel structures; - Wind turbines, and - Aerospace structures. Other subjects include the monitoring of 3D-printed components, self-healing mechanisms in concrete, and applications of NDT in biological materials. Emerging Technologies in Non-Destructive Testing VI provides insight in the latest developments in the different techniques with a huge social impact. In addition, it facilitates the exchange of ideas among scientists and the industry, disseminating academic knowledge to society - and the other way around: giving feedback from the experience of practitioners to academia.

Die Autoren prasentieren die Resultate einer prozessbegleitenden Evaluation eines Qualitatsverfahrens, das auf der Wahrnehmung konkreter Unterrichtssituationen, deren professioneller Auswertung und intensiver padagogischer Zusammenarbeit in Kleingruppen beruht. Neben der gesteigerten Selbstreflexion und einer Verbesserung des eigenen Unterrichts erlebten die Lehrer eine deutliche Verbesserung ihrer kollegialen Beziehungen und ihrer Zusammenarbeit. Als starkendes Element wurde das vertrauensvolle und wertschatzende padagogische Gesprach zur Unterstutzung konkreter Unterrichtssituationen erfahren. Erreicht wurde dieser Erfolg durch ein Verfahren, das mit der Unterstutzung externer Lehrer auf die Selbstqualifizierung eines Kollegiums angelegt ist.

This book analyzes the risk management process in relation to building design and operation and on this basis proposes a method and a set of tools that will improve the planning and evaluation of design solutions in order to control risks in the operation and management phase. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between design choices and the long-term performance of buildings in meeting requirements expressing user and client needs. A risk dashboard is presented as a risk measurement framework that identifies and addresses areas of uncertainty surrounding the satisfaction of particularly relevant requirements over time. This risk dashboard will assist both designers and clients. It will support designers by enabling them to improve the maintainability of project performance and will aid clients both in devising a brief that emphasizes the most relevant aspects of maintainability and in evaluating project proposals according to long-term risks. The results of assessment of the proposed method and tools in tests run on a number of buildings of worship are also reported.

Classical decision theory evaluates entire worlds, specified so as to include everything a decision-maker cares about. Thus applying decision theory requires performing computations far beyond an ordinary decision-maker's ability. In this book Paul Weirich explains how individuals can simplify and streamline their choices. He shows how different 'parts' of options (intrinsic, temporal, spatiotemporal, causal) are separable, so that we can know what difference one part makes to the value of an option, regardless of what happens in the other parts. He suggests that the primary value of options is found in basic intrinsic attitudes towards outcomes: desires, aversions, or indifferences. And using these two facts he argues that we need only compare small parts of the options we face in order to make a rational decision. This important book will interest readers in decision theory, economics, and the behavioral sciences.