Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, first published in 2001, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method of analysis, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable tool. It provides formulations of important decision principles, such as the principle to maximize expected utility; enriches decision theory in solving recalcitrant decision problems; and provides in particular for the cases in which an expert must make a decision for a group of people. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

Across the world, organizations continue to be damaged and brought down by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This is despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers that have been put in place in response. So why isn't compliance working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and succeed. Written for any organization and businesses, this book provides clear, thorough and practical guidance for practitioners and decision-makers. It explains in layman's terms the skills, tools and mindset needed to develop and deliver a best practice compliance and ethics programme - one that meets the requirements made by law, stakeholders and society, and protects your organization from risk of fines, penalties and reputational damage. But this is also a book for all those interested in how to build employee engagement and motivation. The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics demonstrates the value - including competitive advantage, career satisfaction, employee and customer loyalty, and brand enhancement - that a truly effective compliance and ethics programme can bring, when it works hand in hand with a values-based culture of shared ownership.

A law professor and author teaches non-attorneys how to think like a lawyer to gain advantage in their lives-whether buying a house, negotiating a salary, or choosing the right healthcare. Lawyers aren't like other people. They often argue points that are best left alone or look for mistakes in menus "just because." While their scrupulous attention to detail may be annoying, it can also be a valuable skill. Do you need to make health care decisions for an aging parent but are unsure where to start? Are you at crossroads in your career and don't know how to move forward? Have you ever been on a jury trying to understand confusing legal instructions? How to Think Like a Lawyer has the answers to help you cut through the confusion and gain an advantage in your everyday life. Kim Wehle identifies the details you need to pay attention to, the questions you should ask, the responses you should anticipate, and the pitfalls you can avoid. Topics include: Selling and buying a home Understanding employment terms Creating a will and health care proxy Navigating health concerns Applying for financial aid Negotiating a divorce Wehle shows you how to break complex issues down into digestible, easier-to-understand pieces that will enable you to make better decisions in all areas of your life.

Decision making is a crucial element in the field of medicine. The physician has to determine what is wrong with the patient and recommend treatment, while the patient has to decide whether or not to seek medical care, and go along with the treatment recommended by the physician. Health policy makers and health insurers have to decide what to promote, what to discourage, and what to pay for. Together, these decisions determine the quality of health care that is provided. Decision Making in Health Care, first published in 2000, is a comprehensive overview of the field of medical decision making - a rapidly expanding field that includes quantitative theoretical tools for modeling decisions, psychological research on how decisions are actually made, and applied research on how physician and patient decision making can be improved.

The insider's guide to turning your run-of-the-mill coaching job into a wildly powerful coaching practice that boosts teacher skill and student scores Here you have it...again You learned in Jill's first book, Get a Backbone, Principal , how to get rid of fancy educational jargon and replace it with simple, habitual, straightforward conversations that lead a school from less than stellar scores to off the charts student performance. Well, she's done it again BUT this time she's talking to you, COACHES Jill wrote this book to once-and-for-all answer questions like these: How do I coach without being evaluative? What do I do with a weak administrator that won't hold teachers accountable? How do I build trust? What if all I do is put out fires and never get to the actual coaching? What does a successful coaching practice really look like? How do I debrief a teacher and have him actually implement my advice? This book is designed to support, nag, push and cajole instructional coaches into taking six very important steps: Step 1: Get Focused. Step 2: Get Into a Flow. Step 3: Get to the Dance of the Debrief. Step 4: Get to the Heart of Teaching and Learning. Step 5: Get Some Thick Skin. Step 6: Get a Plan. Advanced praise for Get Some Guts, Coach "I knew what I needed to do, but just needed someone to tell me how to do it Thanks for all of your wonderful insight " "I love this. Thank you for addressing coaching head-on and providing me with practical and doable solutions." "Practical, clear and concise information for coaching. This is an area that can be difficult, but you make the difficult seem possible."

This controversial book explores the potential for the use of lotteries in social, and particularly legal, decision-making contexts. Utilizing a variety of disciplines and materials, the author considers in detail the history, advantages, and drawbacks of deciding issues of social significance by lot and argues that the value of the lottery as a legal decision-making device has generally been underestimated. The final chapter of the book considers how lotteries might be combined with other decision-mechanisms and suggests that it may sometimes be sensible to require that adjudication takes place in the shadow of the lottery.

These notes represent our summary of much of the recent research that has been done in recent years on approximations and bounds that have been developed for compound distributions and related quantities which are of interest in insurance and other areas of application in applied probability. The basic technique employed in the derivation of many bounds is induc tive, an approach that is motivated by arguments used by Sparre-Andersen (1957) in connection with a renewal risk model in insurance. This technique is both simple and powerful, and yields quite general results. The bounds themselves are motivated by the classical Lundberg exponential bounds which apply to ruin probabilities, and the connection to compound dis tributions is through the interpretation of the ruin probability as the tail probability of a compound geometric distribution. The initial exponential bounds were given in Willmot and Lin (1994), followed by the nonexpo nential generalization in Willmot (1994). Other related work on approximations for compound distributions and applications to various problems in insurance in particular and applied probability in general is also discussed in subsequent chapters. The results obtained or the arguments employed in these situations are similar to those for the compound distributions, and thus we felt it useful to include them in the notes. In many cases we have included exact results, since these are useful in conjunction with the bounds and approximations developed."

Gilboa and Schmeidler provide a new paradigm for modeling decision making under uncertainty. Case-based decision theory suggests that people make decisions by analogies to past cases: they tend to choose acts that performed well in the past in similar situations, and to avoid acts that performed poorly. The authors describe the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning. They highlight its mathematical and philosophical foundations and compare it to expected utility theory as well as to rule-based systems.

This publication provides updates on the bond market in Indonesia since 2017. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities, and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2017: Indonesia.

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the nonspecialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a "representation theorem" that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. In providing the most complete and robust defense of causal decision theory the book will be of interest to a broad range of readers in philosophy, economics, psychology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence.

Behind heart disease and cancer, medical error is now listed as one of the leading causes of death. Of the many medical errors that may lead to injury and death, diagnostic failure is regarded as the most significant. Generally, the majority of diagnostic failures are attributed to the clinicians directly involved with the patient, and to a lesser extent, the system in which they work. In turn, the majority of errors made by clinicians are due to decision making failures manifested by various departures from rationality. Of all the medical environments in which patients are seen and diagnosed, the emergency department is the most challenging. It has been described as a "wicked" environment where illness and disease may range from minor ailments and complaints to severe, life-threatening disorders. The Cognitive Autopsy is a novel strategy towards understanding medical error and diagnostic failure in 42 clinical cases with which the author was directly involved or became aware of at the time. Essentially, it describes a cognitive approach towards root cause analysis of medical adverse events or near misses. Whereas root cause analysis typically focuses on the observable and measurable aspects of adverse events, the cognitive autopsy attempts to identify covert cognitive processes that may have contributed to outcomes. In this clinical setting, no cognitive process is directly observable but must be inferred from the behavior of the individual clinician. The book illustrates unequivocally that chief among these cognitive processes are cognitive biases and other flaws in decision making, rather than knowledge deficits.

The Pacific region is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2021, and to grow by 4.7% in 2022. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.

This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.

In How to Change 5000 Schools, Ben Levin, former deputy minister of education for the province of Ontario, draws on his experience overseeing major systemwide education reforms in Canada and England to set forth a refreshingly positive, pragmatic, and optimistic approach to leading educational change at all levels. Not long ago, public education in Ontario, Canada, was in deep trouble. Student achievement was stagnating, labor disruptions were rampant, and public satisfaction with the schools was low. In 2003, a new provincial government initiated a series of reforms that embodied a positive, outcome-focused agenda for public education. Today, student outcomes have improved, labor disruption has vanished, and teacher morale is high.

Kulturen bzw. Gesellschaften in ihrer spezifischen Pragung haben systemischen Charakter und bedurfen einer ganzheitlichen Betrachtung. Im Zuge entwicklungspolitischer Massnahmen erfolgen Wissens- und Technologietransfer untrennbar vom Kulturtransfer. Eine Nahtstelle dieses Geschehens ist der Bildungsbereich. Aus einem anders gearteten kulturellen Kontext in einen bestimmten traditionellen Gesellschaftstypus hineinwirkende Massnahmen zwischenstaatlicher Entwicklungshilfe stellen eine Intervention in ein fremdes sozio-kulturelles Milieu dar. Die skizzierten Zusammenhange werden am Beispiel des Projektalltages an der deutsch-athiopischen Modellhochschule, der Adama University, aufgezeigt.

In his entertaining and informative book "Graphic Discovery," Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with "Picturing the Uncertain World," a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a "New Yorker" cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world.

"Picturing the Uncertain World" takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs.

We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read "Picturing the Uncertain World" and learn how.

Implement practical solutions in business continuity management and organizational resilience guided by international best practice from ISO 22301:2019. Business continuity management and resilience are critical to maintaining a healthy business, but many organizations either do nothing (leaving themselves exposed to disruption), take short cuts (leaving major gaps) or fail to properly engage senior stakeholders. This book is a straightforward guide to delivering an effective business continuity capability, including practical solutions built from the author's personal experience managing hundreds of projects in a variety of business settings. Business Continuity Management compares incident management, crisis response and business continuity and how to explain their importance to senior decision makers to ensure appropriate investment. Readers will benefit from case studies of organizational crises and disruptions, including Home Depot, Nissan, RBS, Facebook, Equifax and KFC, and an exploration of lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. With key performance indicators, templates and checklists covering planning, response, reporting and assurance, this book is the essential reference for business continuity and resilience which can be tailored to any organization.

This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance, examines the empirical behaviour of corporate default risk. A new and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das, Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to provide access to the latter for those less focused on the mathematical foundations. A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources of default correlation, which are particularly important to include when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default," a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.

A new text for positive psychology, this book places the self as the decision-maker at the center of the motivational process. Personal Motivation represents a new approach for student and scholar to consider motivation theory, self theory and decision theory. It supports current thinking, which sees the self as possessing power for growth and change. Challenging traditional motivation and personality theories, it puts personality within the context of a new motivation model. It also challenges current thinking by distinguishing between choosing, deciding, and describing the various characteristics of decision-making as a uniquely human activity. The self is reciprocally influenced by three motivational systems and is formed by the motivational process itself. A triarchic theory of motivation is proposed consisting of three interdependent systems: formative, operational, and thematic systems. This book places the study of psychology back in the arena of life by developing a model of motivation and decision-making immediately relevant to personal experience.

Die Entwicklung der Schularchitektur in Deutschland hatte, gunstigere gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen vorausgesetzt, einen weitaus glucklicheren Verlauf nehmen koennen. Einer gedeihlicheren Entwicklung des Schulbaus in den deutschen Landern standen jedoch einerseits materielle Zwange, andererseits ideologische Bestrebungen traditionell als grosses Hindernis entgegen. Padagogische Belange gerieten allzuoft ins Hintertreffen. Mit dieser Problematik setzt sich die Arbeit auseinander: Die Schulbauentwicklung in Deutschland wird beginnend mit dem spaten 18. und fruhen 19. Jahrhundert anhand von historischen und zeitgenoessischen Beispielen erlautert. Neben der architektonischen Entwicklung sind in diesem Zusammenhang die mit ihr einhergehenden padagogischen und gesellschaftlichen Veranderungen von Bedeutung.

Whilst a great deal of progress has been made in recent decades, concerns persist about the course of the social sciences. Progress in these disciplines is hard to assess and core scientific goals such as discovery, transparency, reproducibility, and cumulation remain frustratingly out of reach. Despite having technical acumen and an array tools at their disposal, today's social scientists may be only slightly better equipped to vanquish error and construct an edifice of truth than their forbears - who conducted analyses with slide rules and wrote up results with typewriters. This volume considers the challenges facing the social sciences, as well as possible solutions. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of the subject matter. What are the rules and norms governing behavior in the social sciences? What kinds of research, and which sorts of researcher, succeed and fail under the current system? In what ways does this incentive structure serve, or subvert, the goal of scientific progress?

Whilst a great deal of progress has been made in recent decades, concerns persist about the course of the social sciences. Progress in these disciplines is hard to assess and core scientific goals such as discovery, transparency, reproducibility, and cumulation remain frustratingly out of reach. Despite having technical acumen and an array tools at their disposal, today's social scientists may be only slightly better equipped to vanquish error and construct an edifice of truth than their forbears - who conducted analyses with slide rules and wrote up results with typewriters. This volume considers the challenges facing the social sciences, as well as possible solutions. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of the subject matter. What are the rules and norms governing behavior in the social sciences? What kinds of research, and which sorts of researcher, succeed and fail under the current system? In what ways does this incentive structure serve, or subvert, the goal of scientific progress?