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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.
Die Entwicklung der Schularchitektur in Deutschland hatte, gunstigere gesellschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen vorausgesetzt, einen weitaus glucklicheren Verlauf nehmen koennen. Einer gedeihlicheren Entwicklung des Schulbaus in den deutschen Landern standen jedoch einerseits materielle Zwange, andererseits ideologische Bestrebungen traditionell als grosses Hindernis entgegen. Padagogische Belange gerieten allzuoft ins Hintertreffen. Mit dieser Problematik setzt sich die Arbeit auseinander: Die Schulbauentwicklung in Deutschland wird beginnend mit dem spaten 18. und fruhen 19. Jahrhundert anhand von historischen und zeitgenoessischen Beispielen erlautert. Neben der architektonischen Entwicklung sind in diesem Zusammenhang die mit ihr einhergehenden padagogischen und gesellschaftlichen Veranderungen von Bedeutung.
Across the world organizations continue to be damaged and brought down
by systemic non-compliance or the misdeeds of a few, and newspapers
abound with examples of corporate and NGO scandals and crimes. This
despite the increasing ethical demands stakeholders are making of
business, the exposing power of social media, the proliferating
requirements of compliance laws and regulations, and the burgeoning
numbers of policies, procedures and compliance officers which have been
put in place in response. So what's going on? Why isn't compliance
working? The Business Guide to Effective Compliance and Ethics examines
how rules-based, tick-box, defensible compliance continues to fail, and
lays out a new approach for organizations seeking to flourish and
succeed.
This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the nonspecialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a "representation theorem" that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. In providing the most complete and robust defense of causal decision theory the book will be of interest to a broad range of readers in philosophy, economics, psychology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence.
The Pacific region is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2021, and to grow by 4.7% in 2022. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.
Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.
In Being Rational and Being Right, Juan Comesana argues for a cluster of theses related to the rationality of action and belief. His starting point is that rational action requires rational belief but tolerates false belief. From there, Comesana provides a novel account of empirical evidence according to which said evidence consists of the content of undefeated experiences. This view, which Comesana calls Experientialism, differs from the two main views of empirical evidence on offer nowadays: Factualism, according to which our evidence is what we know, and Psychologism, according to which our experiences themselves are evidence. He reasons that Experientialism fares better than these rival views in explaining different features of rational belief and action. Comesana embeds this discussion in a Bayesian framework, and discusses in addition the problem of normative requirements, the easy knowledge problem, and how Experientialism compares to forms of evidentialism and reliabilism.
In a fast-moving world, the necessity of making decisions, and preferably good ones, has become even more difficult. One reason is the variety and number of choices perhaps available which often are not presented or understood. Alternatives are often unclear and complex paths to them confusing and misleading. Thus the process of decision making itself requires analysis on an ongoing basis. Decision making is often made based on cultural factors whereas the best alternative might be quite different. The subject touches ethics aspects as well as psychological considerations. This book presents important research on the psychology of decision making.
For the first time in science education, the subject of multiple solution methods is explored in book form. While a multiple method teaching approach is utilized extensively in math education, there are very few journal articles and no texts written on this topic in science. Teaching multiple methods to science students in order to solve quantitative word problems is important for two reasons. First it challenges the practice by teachers that one specific method should be used when solving problems. Secondly, it calls into question the belief that multiple methods would confuse students and retard their learning. Using a case study approach and informed by research conducted by the author, this book claims that providing students with a choice of methods as well as requiring additional methods as a way to validate results can be beneficial to student learning. A close reading of the literature reveals that time spent on elucidating concepts rather than on algorithmic methodologies is a critical issue when trying to have students solve problems with understanding. It is argued that conceptual understanding can be enhanced through the use of multiple methods in an environment where students can compare, evaluate, and verbally discuss competing methodologies through the facilitation of the instructor. This book focuses on two very useful methods: proportional reasoning (PR) and dimensional analysis (DA). These two methods are important because they can be used to solve a large number of problems in all of the four academic sciences (biology, chemistry, physics, and earth science). This book concludes with a plan to integrate DA and PR into the academic science curriculum starting in late elementary school through to the introductory college level. A challenge is presented to teachers as well as to textbook writers who rely on the single-method paradigm to consider an alternative way to teach scientific problem solving.
In a fast-moving world, the necessity of making decisions, and preferably good ones, has become even more difficult. One reason is the variety and number of choices perhaps available which often are not presented or understood. Alternatives are often unclear and complex paths to them confusing and misleading. Thus the process of decision making itself requires analysis on an ongoing basis. Decision making is often made based on cultural factors whereas the best alternative might be quite different. The subject touches ethical aspects as well as psychological considerations. This book presents important research on the psychology of decision making related to law and law enforcement, health care and science.
"A rich, much-needed remedy for the standardized institutions
that comprise too much of our school system today... ideal for
teachers and parents intent on resurrecting and fostering students'
inherent drive to learn...An essential resource."
RAMP is a structured process for evaluating and controlling risk in major projects and this practical, working handbook is for everyone involved in the financial, commercial, legal or engineering aspects of a project. Providing a framework for identifying, analysing and responding to risks and then placing a financial value on them, the RAMP process covers the whole life of the asset involved, including post-completion reviews and methods for controlling any risks that remain, to increase the chances of overall project success. It can be applied to `hard' projects involving construction of physical assets or `soft' projects involving business acquisitions or the launch of a new product.
In a fast-moving world, the necessity of making decisions, and preferably good ones, has become even more difficult. One reason is the variety and number of choices perhaps available which often are not presented or understood. Alternatives are often unclear and complex paths to them confusing and misleading. Thus the process of decision making itself requires analysis on an ongoing basis. Decision making is often made based on cultural factors whereas the best alternative might be quite different. The subject touches ethics aspects as well as psychological considerations. This new book presents important research on the psychology of decision making related to health care and medicine.
This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance, examines the empirical behaviour of corporate default risk. A new and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das, Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to provide access to the latter for those less focused on the mathematical foundations. A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources of default correlation, which are particularly important to include when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default," a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.
In his entertaining and informative book "Graphic Discovery," Howard Wainer unlocked the power of graphical display to make complex problems clear. Now he's back with "Picturing the Uncertain World," a book that explores how graphs can serve as maps to guide us when the information we have is ambiguous or incomplete. Using a visually diverse sampling of graphical display, from heartrending autobiographical displays of genocide in the Kovno ghetto to the "Pie Chart of Mystery" in a "New Yorker" cartoon, Wainer illustrates the many ways graphs can be used--and misused--as we try to make sense of an uncertain world. "Picturing the Uncertain World" takes readers on an extraordinary graphical adventure, revealing how the visual communication of data offers answers to vexing questions yet also highlights the measure of uncertainty in almost everything we do. Are cancer rates higher or lower in rural communities? How can you know how much money to sock away for retirement when you don't know when you'll die? And where exactly did nineteenth-century novelists get their ideas? These are some of the fascinating questions Wainer invites readers to consider. Along the way he traces the origins and development of graphical display, from William Playfair, who pioneered the use of graphs in the eighteenth century, to instances today where the public has been misled through poorly designed graphs. We live in a world full of uncertainty, yet it is within our grasp to take its measure. Read "Picturing the Uncertain World" and learn how.
A new text for positive psychology, this book places the self as the decision-maker at the center of the motivational process. Personal Motivation represents a new approach for student and scholar to consider motivation theory, self theory and decision theory. It supports current thinking, which sees the self as possessing power for growth and change. Challenging traditional motivation and personality theories, it puts personality within the context of a new motivation model. It also challenges current thinking by distinguishing between choosing, deciding, and describing the various characteristics of decision-making as a uniquely human activity. The self is reciprocally influenced by three motivational systems and is formed by the motivational process itself. A triarchic theory of motivation is proposed consisting of three interdependent systems: formative, operational, and thematic systems. This book places the study of psychology back in the arena of life by developing a model of motivation and decision-making immediately relevant to personal experience.
When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.
Whilst a great deal of progress has been made in recent decades, concerns persist about the course of the social sciences. Progress in these disciplines is hard to assess and core scientific goals such as discovery, transparency, reproducibility, and cumulation remain frustratingly out of reach. Despite having technical acumen and an array tools at their disposal, today's social scientists may be only slightly better equipped to vanquish error and construct an edifice of truth than their forbears - who conducted analyses with slide rules and wrote up results with typewriters. This volume considers the challenges facing the social sciences, as well as possible solutions. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of the subject matter. What are the rules and norms governing behavior in the social sciences? What kinds of research, and which sorts of researcher, succeed and fail under the current system? In what ways does this incentive structure serve, or subvert, the goal of scientific progress?
Dieses Open-Access-Buch zur Consumer Decision Neuroscience verfolgt das Ziel, durch die Integration neurowissenschaftlicher Methoden in die Kaufer- und Konsumentenverhaltensforschung die Identifikation verhaltensrelevanter, neurophysiologischer Variablen zu ermoeglichen, um darauf aufbauend eine Theorieerweiterung zu schaffen. In ausgewahlten Beitragen werden Kaufer- und Konsumentenentscheidungsprozesse anhand verschiedener methodischer, neurowissenschaftlich fundierter Herangehensweisen empirisch untersucht, um die Entscheidungsprozesse umfassend beschreiben, effektiver unterstutzen und erfolgreich vorhersagen zu koennen.
What if our ability to make decisions was more a matter of chance than a rational process? It has long been recognized that the mind decides, the body obeys. However, as the author of this book argues, in reality it might just be the opposite. The decision-making process is produced by cerebral matter. It is a random phenomenon that results from competing processes within a network whose architecture has changed little since the first vertebrates. This book presents a 'bottom-up' approach to understanding decision making, starting from the fundamental question: what are the basic properties that a neural network of decision making needs to possess? Combining data drawn from phylogeny and physiology, the book provides a general framework for the neurobiology of decision-making in vertebrates, and explains how it evolved from the lamprey to the apes. It also looks at the consequences of such a framework: how it impacts our capacity for reasoning, and considers some aspects of the pathophysiology of higher brain functions. It ends with an open discussion of more philosophical concepts such as the nature of Free-will. Written in a lively and accessible style, the book presents an exciting perspective on understanding decision making.
This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments of product design. It discusses how business and government can work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on environmental studies for engineering and applied science students. |
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