Featuring a substantial new introduction and two new chapters in the Postscript, this new edition makes one of the most significant works on power available in paperback and online for the first time. The author extensively engages with a body of new literature to elucidate and expand upon the original work, using rational choice theory to provide: * An examination of how, due to the collective action problem, groups can be powerless despite not facing any resistance * Timely engagement with feminist accounts of power * An explanation of the relationship of structure and agency and how to measure power comparatively across societies This book's unique interaction with both classical and contemporary debates makes it an essential resource for anyone teaching or studying power in the disciplines of sociology, philosophy, politics or international relations.

Game theory explains how to make good choices when different decision makers have conflicting interests. The classical approach assumes that decision makers are committed to making the best choices for themselves regardless of the effect on others, but such an approach is less appropriate when cooperation, compromise and negotiation are important. This book describes conditional games, a form of game theory that accommodates multiple stakeholder decision-making scenarios where cooperation and negotiation are significant issues and where notions of concordant group behavior are important. Using classical binary preference relations as a point of departure, the book extends the concept of a preference ordering that permits stakeholders to modulate their preferences as functions of the preferences of others. As these conditional preferences propagate through a group of decision makers, they create social bonds that lead to notions of group concordance. This book is intended for all students and researchers of decision theory and game theory.

'An endlessly fascinating tour of the many different factors influencing our decision-making and reasoning' David Robson, author of The Intelligence Trap 'An eye-opening and engaging richness of information that gives us a detailed insight into the strengths and weaknesses of human behaviour' Melissa Hogenboom, author of The Motherhood Complex Do emotions really cloud your thinking? Are habits holding you back? Is AI manipulating your mind? Does IQ help you think better? Every one of our thoughts, actions, moods and decisions is shaped by a whole array of factors, most of which we don't pay any attention to. From culture, time and language to genetics, technology and the microorganisms living inside us - even our own unconscious routines and habits - it's clear that we aren't always in the driving seat. The good news is that by better understanding the external and internal forces at work, we can minimise their impact on our lives. Drawing on rigorous interdisciplinary research, leading science journalists Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren bring us extraordinary stories and studies that open our eyes to the inner workings of the mind, challenge our thought processes and improve our decision-making. Most of all, Are You Thinking Clearly? is a rallying cry to know yourself, think broadly, think boldly - and to listen. 'Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why their beliefs, mistakes, emotions and intuitions are the way they are' Richard Gray, BBC Future

While there are many features of a response-to-intervention framework, two stand out as solid reasons why school personnel should be familiar with its basic structure. One reason is that it provides a sound protocol to account for the performance of every student. A second reason is that it provides a structure that is useful for figuring out how to refine instruction so that it is individualized to meet each student's needs. While this book can be useful to both beginning and experienced teachers, as well as other professionals who provide direct and indirect services to students, it has been written first and foremost with preservice teachers in mind. It should prove to be useful to these teachers by enabling them to identify the following: 1. the knowledge and skills they need to acquire in their preparation program, 2. the questions they need to be prepared to ask and answer during a job interview, and 3. the work they need to perform in the role they will fill in a school that uses a response-to-intervention framework.

This volume offers new, convincing empirical evidence on topical risk- and risk management-related issues in diverse settings, using an interdisciplinary approach. The authors advance compelling arguments, firmly anchored to well-accepted theoretical frameworks, while adopting either qualitative or quantitative research methodologies. The book presents interviews and surveys with risk managers to gather insights on risk management and risk disclosure in practice. Additionally, the book collects and analyzes information contained in public reports to capture risk disclosure and perceptions on risk management impacts on companies' internal organization. It sheds light on financial and market values to understand the effect of risk management on actual and perceived firm's performance, respectively. Further, it examines the impacts of risk and risk management on society and the economy. The book improves awareness and advances knowledge on the complex and changeable risk and risk management fields of study. It interweaves among topical, up-to-date issues, peculiar, under-investigated contexts, and differentiated, complementary viewpoints on the same themes. Therefore, the book is a must-read for scholars and researchers, as well as practitioners and policy makers, interested in a better understanding of risk and risk management studies in different fields.

This book illustrates how to access the right information for making the best decisions during turbulent times. It is written from an experienced-based perspective that is beneficial for those looking for the development and improvement of the decision-making process. The approach is centered on the author's experience in developing and implementing effective and efficient approaches to decision-making in business and government. Based on those experiences, this book provides insights into how to improve the decision making process of your organization, whether it be large or small. For decision makers and those providing market information for making decisions, this book provide guidelines for a framework which includes systems thinking. For those interested in change management and corporate governance, the book presents examples where it was done well and some examples where it was not and the ensuring consequences. Praise for Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process... "This is an absolutely incredible book by a distinguished practitioner. The range of knowledge and experience that Vince Barabba has had is astounding. I urge everyone who is interested in complex, messy problems to read this amazing book." --Ian I. Mitroff "...Vince has masterfully blended the art of organizational respect with the science of data inquiry to drive change and realize strategic vision. A master storyteller, he does not just teach, his book brings his learnings to life in a meaningful way that if carefully listened to, can change the course of a career." -- Paul D'Alessandro Principal, Health Industries, PwC US "In his latest book, Vince Barabba integrates his vast knowledge from 50 years of dedicated work in both the public and private sectors in order to provide leaders with an actionable framework for radically improving how their organizations collect and use information to make the best decisions for all the wicked messes that now appear in our global village... This book can save your company from living in the dark with false assumptions about all your key stakeholders." -- Ralph H. Kilmann, Ph.D. CEO, Kilmann Diagnostics Co-Author, The Thomas-Kilmann Conflict Mode Instrument (TKI) "Absorbing just a few of the many smart ideas in this book will make you a better leader and decision maker. Thinking systemically about how the hard-earned lessons from Vince Barabba's brilliant career apply to your enterprise could make you a great one." - Chunka Mui Co-Author, A Brief History of a Perfect Future and Billion Dollar Lessons "...if you are interested in 'thinking in systems,' this book is for you. The 'On Star' story demonstrates to you how the initial product-centered thinking was proselytized to 'thinking in systems'." -- John Pourdehnad Visiting Professor, IESE Business School and Faulty of Systems Leadership, Thomas Jefferson University "In writing Systems Thinking Decision-Making Process: How to Avoid Burnt Toast, Vince Barabba is addressing the limits of knowledge management systems which enable 'organizations as usual' to share best practices on how to scrape toast faster and cheaper... The examples shared by Vince, from his first-hand experiences in corporate America or his services as a marketing consultant, contribute invaluable clarity to his goal of providing a "sketch of an Inquiry Center Learning and Support System" for those with the ambition to lead efforts to work smarter, not harder, firmly against the grain of 'organizations as usual'..." -- Bill Bellows, Ph.D., President, InThinking Services Adjunct Professor, California State University, Northridge and Southern Utah University Advisory Council Member and Former Deputy Director, The W. Edwards Deming Institute (R) "In his 'last book', Vince weaves the experiences and learning of a lifetime into whole cloth of insight and wisdom. He helps us to find relevant information from a rapidly changing world and apply it to making good decisions. This is a masterpiece of knowledge presented in a very entertaining way." -- Carl Spetzler Chairman, Strategic Decisions Group International LLC "This is a truly inspiring and mind changing book directly relevant for our times... Vince has shown through his remarkable work that business and government are a force for good when leaders think long term, work with, not against nature, and use their influence and resources for the many, not the few..." -- Osvald Bjelland Founder and President, Xynteo Founder, The Performance Theatre Foundation

Chance inevitably plays a role in law but it is not often that we consciously try to import an element of randomness into a legal process. Random Justice: On Lotteries and Legal Decision-Making explores the potential for the use of lotteries in social, and particularly legal, decision-making contexts. Utilizing a variety of disciplines and materials, Neil Duxbury considers in detail the history, advantages, and drawbacks of deciding issues of social significance by lot and argues that the value of the lottery as a legal decision-making device has generally been underestimated. The very fact that there exists widespread resistance to the use of lotteries for legal decision-making purposes betrays a commonly held belief that legal processes are generally more important than are legal outcomes. Where, owing to the existence of indeterminacy, the process of reasoning is likely to be excessively protracted and the reasons provided strongly contestable, the most cost-efficient and impartial decision-making strategy may well be recourse to lot. Aversion to this strategy, while generally understandable, is not necessarily rational. Yet in law, as Professor Duxbury demonstrates, reason is generally valued more highly than is rationality. The lottery is often conceived to be a decision-making device that operates in isolation. Yet lotteries can frequently and profitably be incorporated into other decision-frameworks. The book concludes by controversially considering how lotteries might be so incorporated and also advances the thesis that it may sometimes be sensible to require that adjudication takes place in the shadow of a lottery.

Of all cancers, probably breast cancer is one of the most emotive. Increasingly patients with breast cancer are participating in the surgical and/or medical decision about their treatment. This involvement raises ethical issues about the rights of patients and their ability to give an informed consent, concerns about the process of communication betwen the medical staff and the patient, and also issues about the psychology of not only the woman with breast cancer, but also the doctor. This book addresses these issues relating to shared decision making and in particular those areas where a choice of treatment option involves some degree of risk/benefit analysis. It covers the ethical principles and then looks at the evidence that women who wish to participate and who are fully informed and who have taken part in the decision making process regarding their treatment, and who have a positive attitude towards their illness, tend to do better in the long run. Appropriate experts have contributed sections on the different treatment options to provide a brief overview of the treatments available and highlight the issues that should be considered by the woman and the doctor in the decision making process. There is also a section on the patients perspective and vignettes throughout to illustrate dilemmas the paitent faces and the importance of communication. Written for the surgical, medical and clinical oncologists who deal with breast cancer patients and senior nurses in breast cancer units, this book will also be of interest to trainees practising oncologists, and the women themselves who are interested in the shared decision making process in oncology generally.

For businesses to grow and be successful their approach to resilience must be defined by a holistic and risk-focused outlook, rather than one which is narrow and dominated by event-oriented continuity practices. The Organizational Resilience Handbook shows that success is as much to do with innovation and the speed with which new products are brought to market as it is with organizations having to deal with unexpected crisis situations. It comprehensively covers the full breadth and depth of the field and introduces related topics such as security, safety, e-commerce, emerging technologies and customer experience. Through adopting a strategic and progressive approach, practitioners can apply the book's methodology to develop an in-depth understanding of resilience within their own organization and use it to effectively engage with the board and senior management in developing strategies for achieving greater resilience capability. A range of high-profile case studies, such as Mercedes, the UK's National Health Service, Alibaba and BP, help to illustrate the concept of resilience by detailing characteristics and behaviours which confirm its meaning. The Organizational Resilience Handbook is a practical guide to self-assessment, benchmarking performance and implementing resilience frameworks in any organization.

Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support, published in 2009, explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.

This book presents recent advances in the theory and application of the Best-Worst Method (BWM). It includes selected papers from the Second International Workshop on Best-Worst Method (BWM2021), held in Delft, The Netherlands from 10-11 June, 2021, and provides valuable insights on why and how to use BWM in a diverse range of applications including health, energy, supply chain management, and engineering. The book highlights the use of BWM in different settings including single decision-making vs group decision-making, and complete information vs incomplete and uncertain situations. The papers gathered here will benefit academics and practitioners who are involved in multi-criteria decision-making and decision analysis.

Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions. The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process. This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.

This book provides in-depth guidance on how to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for risk assessment and risk management. The frontiers of engineering operations management methods for identifying the risks, investigating their roles, analyzing the complex cause-effect relationships, and proposing countermeasures for risk mitigation are presented in this book. There is a total of ten chapters, mainly including the indicators and organizational models for risk assessment, the integrated Bayesian Best-Worst method and classifiable TOPSIS model for risk assessment, new risk prioritization model, fuzzy risk assessment under uncertainties, assessment of COVID-19 transmission risk based on fuzzy inference system, risk assessment and mitigation based on simulation output analysis, energy supply risk analysis, risk assessment and management in cash-in-transit vehicle routing problems, and sustainability risks of resource-exhausted cities. The most significant feature of this book is that it provides various systematic multi-criteria decision analysis methods for risk assessment and management, and illustrates the application of these methods in different fields. This book is beneficial to policymakers, decision-makers, experts, researchers and students related to risk assessment and management.

Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity provides the first comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

In Being Rational and Being Right, Juan Comesana argues for a cluster of theses related to the rationality of action and belief. His starting point is that rational action requires rational belief but tolerates false belief. From there, Comesana provides a novel account of empirical evidence according to which said evidence consists of the content of undefeated experiences. This view, which Comesana calls "Experientialism," differs from the two main views of empirical evidence on offer nowadays: Factualism, according to which our evidence is what we know, and Psychologism, according to which our experiences themselves are evidence. He reasons that Experientialism fares better than these rival views in explaining different features of rational belief and action. Comesana embeds this discussion in a Bayesian framework, and discusses in addition the problem of normative requirements, the easy knowledge problem, and how Experientialism compares to Evidentialism, Reliabilism, and Comesana's own (now superseded) Evidentialist Reliabilism.

Dieses Open-Access-Buch zur Consumer Decision Neuroscience verfolgt das Ziel, durch die Integration neurowissenschaftlicher Methoden in die Kaufer- und Konsumentenverhaltensforschung die Identifikation verhaltensrelevanter, neurophysiologischer Variablen zu ermoeglichen, um darauf aufbauend eine Theorieerweiterung zu schaffen. In ausgewahlten Beitragen werden Kaufer- und Konsumentenentscheidungsprozesse anhand verschiedener methodischer, neurowissenschaftlich fundierter Herangehensweisen empirisch untersucht, um die Entscheidungsprozesse umfassend beschreiben, effektiver unterstutzen und erfolgreich vorhersagen zu koennen.

The consequences of taking on risk can be ruinous to personal finances, professional careers, corporate survivability, and even nation states. Yet many risk managers do not have a clear understanding of the basics. Requiring no statistical or mathematical background, The Fundamental Rules of Risk Management gives you the knowledge to successfully handle risk in your organization. The book begins with a deep investigation into the behavioral roots of risk. Using both historical and contemporary contexts, author Nigel Da Costa Lewis carefully details the indisputable truths surrounding many of the behavioral biases that induce risk. He exposes the fallacy of the wisdom of experts, explains why you cannot rely on regulators, outlines the characteristics of the "glad game," and demonstrates how high intelligence or lack thereof can lead to loss of hard-earned wealth. He also discusses the weaknesses and failures of modern risk management. Moving on to elements often overlooked by risk managers, Dr. Lewis traces the link between corporate governance and risk management. He then covers core lessons surrounding the role of risk managers as well as the difficult subject of integrated, single lens analysis of risk. The book also explores aspects of spreadsheet risk and draws on lessons learned in the information systems and software engineering communities to provide guidance on selecting the right risk management system. It concludes with a discussion on the most dominant of risk measures-value at risk. Having a clear understanding about risk separates successful professionals, companies, and economies from history's forgotten failures. Through examples and case studies, this thought-provoking book shows how the rules of risk can work to protect and enhance investor value.

This book begins with the fundamental large sample theory, estimating ruin probability, and ends by dealing with the latest issues of estimating the Gerber-Shiu function. This book is the first to introduce the recent development of statistical methodologies in risk theory (ruin theory) as well as their mathematical validities. Asymptotic theory of parametric and nonparametric inference for the ruin-related quantities is discussed under the setting of not only classical compound Poisson risk processes (Cramer-Lundberg model) but also more general Levy insurance risk processes. The recent development of risk theory can deal with many kinds of ruin-related quantities: the probability of ruin as well as Gerber-Shiu's discounted penalty function, both of which are useful in insurance risk management and in financial credit risk analysis. In those areas, the common stochastic models are used in the context of the structural approach of companies' default. So far, the probabilistic point of view has been the main concern for academic researchers. However, this book emphasizes the statistical point of view because identifying the risk model is always necessary and is crucial in the final step of practical risk management.

This book is a joint endeavour of the three partner universities to develop a book with in-depth and state-of-art analysis for the academic community of East Asia and the world. Past disasters, like the 2008 Great Sichuan Earthquake in China and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, saw good efforts of East Asian countries in helping each other. Such a trend has been further strengthened in these countries' recent cooperation and mutual support in their fight against Covid-19 pandemic. While China, Japan, and South Korea are geographically and culturally contiguous and hence may share some characteristics in their risk management principles and practices, there may also be many significant differences due to their different socioeconomic and political systems. The commonalities and variances in East Asia risk management systems are also reflected by their recent responses to the Covid-19 challenges. While all three countries demonstrated overall success in controlling the epidemic, the measures taken by them were different. This research will be of interest to policymakers, scholars and economists.

The greatest challenge we face in dealing with the complexity of our world? To think again and to think better. In a world that challenges us with ever more complicated problems, the quality of our thinking is a critical game-changer. As individuals, organisations, societies, and cultures, we need to cultivate thinking that is both insightful and farsighted. We must learn how to mobilise and apply intelligence that goes beyond the ordinary - one that continuously exceeds its own limits. The Postgraduate School of Thinking, at the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels (VUB), is an experimental program with the mission of challenging us all to achieve just that. Deploying an innovative combination of mobilisation methods, the program sets out to define the cognitive strategies, practices, and habits that are the marks of exceptional thinkers. This book features a variety of interdisciplinary research articles and discussions that invite us to explore our capacity for extraordinary thinking.

Teachers stand at the intersection of educational goals, directing students down the road to success or to the byways of diminished opportunities. They are the most important school variable effecting student achievement. Consequently, placing and retaining only qualified and effective teachers in our nation's classrooms is a critical responsibility of school leaders. Effective supervision and evaluation requires that the school leader possess the knowledge of effective instruction, exhibit skills in documentation of professional conduct, and embrace a professional approach with the will to place and keep students at the center of school policy and practice decisions. Supervising and evaluating teachers is a difficult, but essential work. Research shows that time and expertise are necessary to effectively supervise and to build a case for adverse employment decisions, when necessary. Threading the Evaluation Needle: The Documentation of Teacher Unprofessional Conduct addresses the legal and professional knowledge that structures discipline and dismissal in the public schools. The authors, based on their educational, legal, and research experience, provide templates for various types of documentation necessary to effectively build a case for discipline. This book seeks to give principals the tools and knowledge to institute in good faith a fair and accurate documentation system.

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors-including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck-are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.

In Occupational Risk Control, Derek Viner brings together the theoretical aspects of his subject into a coherent whole and then connects them with the needs both of practitioners and educators. The theory embraced by the author spans ideas formed between the industrial revolution and the present day, but he focuses on relatively more recent theoretical developments chiefly associated with people-orientated approaches in the discipline of psychology applied to management practice and in the application of analytical ideas to engineering design. The author looks specifically at developments in defence and petro-chemical systems and also considers the whole theory of risk that originated in the 1970s with the advent of nuclear power stations, but which he argues has advanced little since that time. He also introduces the geological and botanical sciences, on the grounds that they contribute much to our understanding of how to set about classifying phenomena. To this mix, is added the contribution of law to our understanding of moral obligations and that of statistics to our understanding of the management of uncertainty. Viner argues that amongst the observable consequences of the absence of a holistic approach, is the tendency for regulators to form (misinformed) theory on which to base legislation and the prevalence of commercial systems leading to disparate efforts by different industries. The net effect of all this, he suggests, is seen in the disasters of the magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico explosion and oil spill.

In Even the Odds, Karen Firestone explains how risk assessment plays a prominent role in all aspects of life. We may all define risk, and our tolerance for it, somewhat differently, but we might all agree it plays a pivotal role in guiding us toward an optimal outcome. As a long-time investment advisor, Firestone has grown accustomed to interpreting risk on a daily basis. She has developed four core tenets of risk-taking we can all apply to anticipating, evaluating, and responding to the risks we face in our business, investing, and personal lives. These tenets are right-sizing; right-timing; relying on skill, knowledge, and experience; and staying skeptical about numbers, promises, and forecasts. Firestone's approach is both practical and accessible to individuals who are making important decisions, such as embarking on new career or life changes, starting or running an enterprise, making a sizable investment, or deciding how to balance across a full portfolio of assets. The book is rich with anecdotes and examples of how many prominent leaders in their fields encountered and dealt with risk along the way. Firestone also shares her own successes and failures, in particular when she decided to risk it all--a fabulous career managing billions of dollars at a premium investment company, her reputation, and the security at home that comes with a strong and stable job--to go out on her own. Even the Odds helps us understand the broader implications of risk--and how it guides our decision-making--so that we can improve outcomes across multiple facets of our lives, from our businesses and investments, to the personal choices we make.