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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
Extensively updated for the second edition, this handy guide covers the safety engineering of ship-shaped offshore installations at every stage of design, construction, operation, lifetime healthcare and decommissioning. New sections cover additional types of offshore structures, including offshore power plants, as well as cutting-edge technologies and all the latest advances in the field. The text focuses on minimising accidents and the effects of extreme conditions, with new chapters covering earthquakes, hurricanes and terrorist attacks, as well as traditional types of accidental events such as hull girder collapse, collisions, fires and explosions. This is an invaluable resource for students who will be approaching the subject for the first time as well as practising engineers and researchers.
Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear. This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; "Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.
Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks provides a comprehensive view of the risk management activity by means of the stress testing process. An introduction to multivariate time series modeling paves the way to scenario analysis in order to assess a bank resilience against adverse macroeconomic conditions. Assets and liabilities are jointly studied to highlight the key issues that a risk manager needs to face. A multi-national bank prototype is used all over the book for diving into market, credit, and operational stress testing. Interest rate, liquidity and other major risks are also studied together with the former to outline how to implement a fully integrated risk management toolkit. Examples, business cases, and exercises worked in Matlab and R facilitate readers to develop their own models and methodologies.
Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.
The Risk Management Handbook offers readers knowledge of current best practice and cutting-edge insights into new developments within risk management. Risk management is dynamic, with new risks continually being identified and risk techniques being adapted to new challenges. Drawing together leading voices from the major risk management application areas, such as political, supply chain, cybersecurity, ESG and climate change risk, this edited collection showcases best practice in each discipline and provides a comprehensive survey of the field as a whole. This second edition has been updated throughout to reflect the latest developments in the industry. It incorporates content on updated and new standards such as ISO 31000, MOR and ISO 14000. It also offers brand new chapters on ESG risk management, legal risk management, cyber risk management, climate change risk management and financial risk management. Whether you are a risk professional wanting to stay abreast of your field, a student seeking a broad and up-to-date introduction to risk, or a business leader wanting to get to grips with the risks that face your business, this book will provide expert guidance.
The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.
Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.
This practical guide covers the steps necessary to sustain quality in a project from start to finish. The book shows how to identify risks at different processes, phases, and stages and offers directions on how to mitigate and reduce risks using analysis, evaluation, and monitoring. Risk Management Applications Used to Sustain Quality in Projects: A Practical Guide focuses on applying risk management principles to manage quality in all project management processes, stages, and phases. The book discusses the potential risks that may occur at the different phases of the project life cycle, their effects on projects, and how to prevent them. It explores all the process elements and activities of risk management and provides steps on how to make the project more qualitative, competitive, and economical. Risk management processes are discussed at each project management processes and project lifecycle phase/stage to help the reader understand how various risks can occur and how to mitigate and reduce them. The main audience for this book is project management professionals, quality managers, systems engineers, construction managers, and risk management professionals as well as industrial engineers, academics, and students.
Compliance has become key to our contemporary markets, societies, and modes of governance across a variety of public and private domains. While this has stimulated a rich body of empirical and practical expertise on compliance, thus far, there has been no comprehensive understanding of what compliance is or how it influences various fields and sectors. The academic knowledge of compliance has remained siloed along different disciplinary domains, regulatory and legal spheres, and mechanisms and interventions. This handbook bridges these divides to provide the first one-stop overview of what compliance is, how we can best study it, and the core mechanisms that shape it. Written by leading experts, chapters offer perspectives from across law, regulatory studies, management science, criminology, economics, sociology, and psychology. This volume is the definitive and comprehensive account of compliance.
An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.
From natural disasters to cyber-attacks to global pandemics, the modern risk environment is highly complex and challenges our fundamental understanding of risk and crisis management. All senior risk and crisis managers face a similar challenge: maximizing their organization's ability to prepare for a potential high-impact event. Blending practical insights with rigorous research, Strategic Risk and Crisis Management provides a range of realistic solutions for any operational environment. It introduces concepts, frameworks and processes that will allow businesses to not only survive but respond and recover at a time of maximum chaos and confusion. Authored by a recognized global authority on the strategic management of complex events, the book covers the integration of multiple stakeholders and the importance of information exchange and critical decision-making under pressure at strategic, tactical and operational levels. It also includes material on leadership, sense-making, resilience, wicked problems and the challenges of global urban resilience, as well as case studies with detailed analysis of organizational failures and the lessons learned, including COVID-19, the WannaCry attack, the Texas snowstorm, and the Gatwick Airport Drone Incident. Strategic Risk and Crisis Management is an essential read for professionals working in security, risk, crisis management and emergency response. It will also be a valuable text for university students taking modules on security, risk, emergency response and crisis management.
This book arose out of a conference on "Epistemic Logic and the Theory of Games and Decisions" that took place in January 1994 at the Centre Inter- national de Recherches Mathematiques in Marseille. The convergence of game theory and epistemic logic has been in progress for two decades. The aim of the conference was to explore this rapprochement further by gathering spe- cialists from different professional communities, i. e. , economics, mathematics, philosophy, and computer science. Also, the organizors aimed at fostering the work centered on the issues of knowledge and belief that has recently been pursued amongst game theorists and decision theorists. The conference was funded by the following institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Sci- entifique (France), Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur et de la Recherche (France), Association pour Ie Developpement de la Recherche en Economie et Statistique (France). It was also supported by the Human Capital and Mobility Programme of the EU, as well as, locally, by the Ville de Marseille. We would like to express our gratitude to these institutions for their generous help. Despite the success of the conference, it was not the editors' intention to circulate just another volume of proceedings in the usual style. Throughout the more than two-year editorial process, they have pursued the goal of providing a no doubt non-exhaustive, but hopefully thorough and accurate, state of the art account of a promising field of research.
International Health and Safety at Work has been specially written in simple English for the thousands of students who complete the NEBOSH International General Certificate in Health and Safety each year. Fully revised in alignment with the 2019 syllabus, this fourth edition provides students with all they need to tackle the course with confidence. Clear, easily accessible information is presented in full colour, with discussion of essential principles such as ILO and OSH conventions as well as legal frameworks from a range of countries. The book features practice questions and answers to test knowledge and increase understanding. International Health and Safety at Work remains the most effective tool for those working to fit international health and safety standards to local needs and practice.
Boost your financial health so you're ready for any economic or personal upheaval Crisis is inevitable--but it doesn't have to torpedo your finances! Financial Security For Dummies offers proven advice to help you prep your finances for the next economic downturn, personal setback, pandemic, plague of locusts--or anything else life throws your way. This book contains the historical perspective and up-to-date info you'll need to anticipate, understand, and navigate a wide range of personal financial challenges. If your monthly income and expenses are on steady ground and you're ready to secure your financial future, this is the For Dummies guide for you. Not only will you create a plan to keep your family's finances afloat during turbulent times, but you'll also be liberated from the pressure to "keep up with the Joneses" so you can make smarter financial decisions, starting today. This book will help you: Gain an understanding of how unforeseen personal or global events could affect your financial life Learn strategies for protecting your assets when economic downturns and other emergencies occur Feel confident in your unique path to financial freedom so you can remain calm when life takes an unexpected turn Build a survival plan for protecting yourself with broader safety nets, better money decisions, and improved financial literacy Whether you want to reduce your stress surrounding your financial goals or take advantage of financial opportunities crises create, Financial Security For Dummies will equip you to navigate financial challenges and ultimately achieve peace of mind.
The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. This second edition extends the use of scenarios planning and methods to tackle the risk and uncertainty of financial markets and the potentially massive impacts on businesses of all kinds, providing powerful tools to give far thinking executives an advantage in these turbulent times.
A new playbook for effective crisis management in higher education. Unlike other industries, in higher education an institution's most important asset is its reputation. Yet as fundamental as it is, many leaders continue to view managing reputation as dishonest and counterproductive, a suspect process that undermines the very idea of reputation as an organic outcome of reality. When leadership credibility is on the line, though, and an institution's reputation is facing potentially irreparable damage, the concept of reputational risk moves from being nebulous to all too tangible. In Preventing Crises at Your University, Simon Barker demonstrates how critical it is for colleges and universities to align strategy and values with decision-making during times of crisis. Arguing that leaders must stop considering the discussion of reputational risk as unseemly, he demonstrates that this discussion is in fact a strategic imperative for every leader. Significant reputational damage, Barker asserts, is not the inevitable outcome of a crisis but of a poor response. Defining a new crisis leadership playbook to deal with self-inflicted crises, he also * explains what typically goes wrong in a crisis; * describes how to prevent crises from escalating; * demonstrates how a stakeholder-centric model of communications can help mitigate reputational damage; and * introduces a number of original concepts, including a Reputational Risk Management Framework, a Reputational Risk Maturity Model, and a Culture and Capability matrix. Moving beyond the theoretical by presenting case studies of real crises involving sexual assault, freedom of speech, student protests, faculty misconduct, and a broad range of financial, social, and ethical issues, the book highlights and underscore key concepts around effective management of reputational risk. Ultimately, Preventing Crises at Your University serves as a wake-up call for all higher education leaders and board members.
Experienced base jumpers and other extreme sports athletes have one unwritten rule: self-knowledge. The way you think and the choices you make determine who you are and who you will become. If you know yourself, you will dare to take risks, to go your own way and to change. This rule goes for professionals who aim for high performances too. If you want your performances to have a positive drive, you first have to get to know yourself. Dare to Jump helps you to overcome your fears and gives you three power skills with which you can become the best version of yourself. Someone with a boundless mind-set, a sharp focus and a great amount of trust. You learn why focus is the new IQ, how to train yourself to enter the right flow, and how you build the level of trust within your team.
If you have ever had the opportunity to observe a master craftsperson at work, one of the first things you will notice is how easy they make their work look. This principle applies to artists, athletes, plumbers and painters. It also applies to teachers. If you were fortunate enough to have some master teachers in your K to 12 schooling or for your university student teaching, you will have seen this principle at work. You will recall how easy they made teaching look. For the most part, their classes just flowed. The teacher would ask the students to do something, and the students did it. The teacher would cue the kids to transition into a new activity, and the kids transitioned. There was little conflict, few arguments, and the vast majority of classroom time was spent engaged in learning. It is a pleasure to observe these kinds of behaviors in the classrooms of master teachers, but this leaves us with an important question: how do they do it? Just how did these teachers get their students to be so cooperative and have their classroom running so smoothly? That is what THE SUCCESSFUL TEACHER'S SURVIVAL KIT: 83 simple things that successful teachers do to thrive in the classroom will show you - the kinds of things that master teachers do to make their classes work - both for themselves and for their students. You too can become a master teacher. This book will show you how.
This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments of product design. It discusses how business and government can work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on environmental studies for engineering and applied science students. |
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