Straight Choices provides a fascinating introduction to the psychology of decision making, enhanced by discussion of relevant examples of decision problems faced in everyday life. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, this edition provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. The book emphasizes the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decision making. This edition highlights advances made in judgment and decision making research, with additional coverage of behavioral insights, nudging, artificial intelligence, and explanation-based decision making. Written in a non-technical manner, this book is an essential read for all students and researchers in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and the decision sciences, as well as anyone interested in the nature of decision making.

In the complex, cash-strapped, high pressure world of modern construction, what do you do when something goes wrong? This work looks beyond the best-case scenario to give project managers, contractors, architects and engineers the tools to prepare effectively for the unexpected. Based on the author's more than thirty-five years of construction management experience, the book shows how to proactively mitigate a schedule. It opens with case studies of real life construction mitigation, and goes on to examine the conceptual aspects of anticipating risks and making contingency plans, technical aspects of scheduling, and essential role of communication in change management. Working on the principle that no major project can ever quite go to plan and that "it's not how you start, it's how you finish," Collaborative Risk Mitigation is the ideal complement to traditional scheduling textbooks.

The Question is the Answer is a teacher's guide to helping young readers generate text-based questions. The purpose of this book is to help teachers and parents value and promote student-generated questions to facilitate motivation, engagement, and cognitive development.

This book opens up new directions in judgment and decision making research. Our society and academic research have largely neglected the fact that sound judgment and decision making are the crux of many professions. This volume explores metacognitive processes as an enabler of competence at decision making. Offering a new analysis of competence, by understanding and communicating what professional decision makers do, this book provides valuable contributions to the judgement/decision making field as well as the professional community at large.

Quantitative Risk Analysis is a powerful tool used to help manage risk and improve safety. When used appropriately, it provides a rational basis for evaluating process safety and comparing alternative safety improvements. This guide, an update of an earlier American Chemistry Council (ACC) publication utilizing the "hands-on" experience of CPI risk assessment practitioners and safety professionals involved with the CCPS and ACC, explains how managers and users can make better-informed decisions about QRA, and how plant engineers and process designers can better understand, interpret and use the results of a QRA in their plant.

Presents Total Manufacturing Assurance (TMA) as a holistic approach to manufacturing operations Focuses on analytics and performance assessment, along with Industry 4.0 and its role in advanced manufacturing, strategic planning, Innovation and engineering economics, as well as manufacturing processes, materials, and operations. It also covers product and manufacturing system reliability, maintainability, availability, quality, and safety, financial issues in decision making and engineering analysis Offers a case study for each chapter highlighting key TMA connections all with the same structure of overview, issue, objective, approach, results, and conclusion Discusses management and engineering techniques and tools, and their practical implementation, required to achieve TMA Expands on integrating fundamental manufacturing, engineering, and management topics, which are key in achieving TMA PowerPoint slides and a solutions manual are available to instructors for course adoptions.

The Islamic revolution was a major turning point in the modern history of Iran and one of the main developments in the contemporary Middle East. Carried by a wave of popular support, the revolution represented a new political system and leadership, with a new ideology and a vision of the ideal society. It embodied a promise - and raised expectations - of a brighter future for the country and the people. Once in power, however, the revolutionary leaders were often obliged to compromise revolutionary ideology in pragmatic response to the exigencies of their situation. Yet, opinions as to the actual policy which should be implemented and to the particular fields and pace of the change have differed, often drastically, among those representing the various political trends - radicals or extremists, pragmatists or reformists, conservatives of hard-liners, as they are often depicted.

This book offers a comprehensive guide to the use of neutrosophic sets in multiple criteria decision making problems. It shows how neutrosophic sets, which have been developed as an extension of fuzzy and paraconsistent logic, can help in dealing with certain types of uncertainty that classical methods could not cope with. The chapters, written by well-known researchers, report on cutting-edge methodologies they have been developing and testing on a variety of engineering problems. The book is unique in its kind as it reports for the first time and in a comprehensive manner on the joint use of neutrosophic sets together with existing decision making methods to solve multi-criteria decision-making problems, as well as other engineering problems that are complex, hard to model and/or include incomplete and vague data. By providing new ideas, suggestions and directions for the solution of complex problems in engineering and decision making, it represents an excellent guide for researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students pursuing research on neutrosophic decision making, and more in general in the area of industrial and management engineering.

This collection calls for improved technical communication for the public through an embodied, situated understanding of environmental risk that promotes social justice. In addition to providing a series of chapters about recent issues on risk communication, this volume offers a diverse look at methodological practices for students, researchers, and practitioners looking to address embodied aspects of crisis and risk that incorporate UX, storytelling, and dynamic text. It includes chapters that bring embodiment to the forefront of risk communication, highlighting the cycle of content creation, dissemination, public response and decision making, continuing iterations of educational efforts, and recovery, toward increasing adaptive capacity as a whole. In addition, this work directs necessary attention to overcoming perceptual difficulties, memory lapses, definitional differences, access issues, and pedagogical problems in the communication of risks to diverse publics. This collection is essential reading for scholars and can be used as a supplemental text or casebook for courses in technical communication, environmental communication, risk and crisis communication, science communication, and public health.

This collection calls for improved technical communication for the public through an embodied, situated understanding of environmental risk that promotes social justice. In addition to providing a series of chapters about recent issues on risk communication, this volume offers a diverse look at methodological practices for students, researchers, and practitioners looking to address embodied aspects of crisis and risk that incorporate UX, storytelling, and dynamic text. It includes chapters that bring embodiment to the forefront of risk communication, highlighting the cycle of content creation, dissemination, public response and decision making, continuing iterations of educational efforts, and recovery, toward increasing adaptive capacity as a whole. In addition, this work directs necessary attention to overcoming perceptual difficulties, memory lapses, definitional differences, access issues, and pedagogical problems in the communication of risks to diverse publics. This collection is essential reading for scholars and can be used as a supplemental text or casebook for courses in technical communication, environmental communication, risk and crisis communication, science communication, and public health.

In the decades following World War II, the science of decision-making moved from the periphery to the center of transatlantic thought. The Decisionist Imagination explores how "decisionism" emerged from its origins in prewar political theory to become an object of intense social scientific inquiry in the new intellectual and institutional landscapes of the postwar era. By bringing together scholars from a wide variety of disciplines, this volume illuminates how theories of decision shaped numerous techno-scientific aspects of modern governance-helping to explain, in short, how we arrived at where we are today.

Lead your business through the crisis.

As the pandemic is exacting its toll on our lives and wreaking havoc in the global economy, HBR is helping companies and managers make sense of this unprecedented situation and lead employees through it. What should you and your company be doing right now to counter these challenges?

Coronavirus and Business: The Insights You Need from Harvard Business Review is a compilation of sixteen recent articles from HBR.org. It provides you with essential thinking about keeping your company running remotely, managing your business through disaster and recovery, and finding it within yourself to lead with resilience through the crisis.

Business is changing. Will you adapt or be left behind? Get up to speed and deepen your understanding of the topics that are shaping your company's future with the Insights You Need from Harvard Business Review series. Featuring HBR's smartest thinking on fast-moving issues--blockchain, cybersecurity, AI, and more--each book provides the foundational introduction and practical case studies your organization needs to compete today and collects the best research, interviews, and analysis to get it ready for tomorrow.

You can't afford to ignore how these issues will transform the landscape of business and society. The Insights You Need series will help you grasp these critical ideas--and prepare you and your company for the future.

Large projects are defining moments for companies and countries. When large projects succeed, they can dramatically improve the social and economic conditions in a region. This book focuses on major aspects of the world's largest infrastructural, industrial and public service projects through the lens of structuring, valuing, managing risk and financing projects. The book analyses and discuss large projects in government, private and public and private partnership. The author sheds light into the attributes of project finance which have unique structural elements. The book focuses on case studies related to 50 mega projects which includes infrastructural projects, energy related projects, industrial projects, roads, ports and bridges among others. This book covers both the theoretical aspects of financing of mega projects and the practical applications by including case studies of the world's largest projects in terms of value.

Global competition and other factors are forcing manufacturers to produce highly safe engineering systems and products. This book meets the needs for product designers, systems engineers, and safety engineers that work together and need a single resource which considers all three areas when designing new products and systems that they can refer to. Applied Safety for Engineers: Systems and Products serves as a comprehensive resource offering a wide range of safety topics when involved with product design, engineering system analysis, and engineering maintenance. Examples along with their solutions are placed at the end of each chapter to test reader comprehension. The book facilitates the importance for product designers, safety, and systems engineering professionals to work closely during the product design phase so they can understand each other's discipline. Written in a manner that readers do not need any previous knowledge on the subject, the book offers many sources for further reading at the end of each chapter. This book will be useful to product designers, system engineers, safety specialists, graduate and senior undergraduate students, researchers and manufacturers, industrial engineers, safety engineers, and engineers-at-large.

This book combines the topics of Root Cause Analysis (RCA) and Lubrication Degradation Mechanisms (LDM) with the goal of allowing the reader to develop the disciplined thought process for getting to the root causes of each of the degradation mechanisms. This new way of thinking can be applied to other areas within their facility to mitigate or eliminate any future recurrence. Lubrication Degradation: Getting into the Root Causes strives to break down the complex topic of Lubrication Degradation into its six most common failure mechanisms. It presents the mechanisms as manageable components and then teaches the reader how to identify the typical root causes associated with each failure mechanism. The main aim of this book is to get the audience to look past the physical root causes and really unearth the underlying human and/or systemic roots to prevent recurrence of these types of failures. The book offers a field-proven and practical root cause analysis approach. An ideal practical book for industry professionals involved with Plant Operations, Engineering, Management, Maintenance, Reliability, Quality, and also useful for Technicians.

This book is a collection of applications of analytic techniques to a number of popular sports including baseball, basketball, hockey, Jai Alai, NFL football and horseracing. We focus on both the statistics of the sporting events and betting strategies on the events. The subject is fascinating as there are many twists and subtle complicated decisions.Sports analytics applies mathematical and statistical methods to important questions in the structure and performance of sporting activities using the same basic methods and approaches as data analysts in other disciplines.Sports games and events are a fruitful area for study and to evaluate betting strategies as there is extensive data and mean reversion. With prices changing continuously, risk arbitrage bets can be made. Moreover, little errors, like a penalty to a player or an error in a call by a referee, can change the score of a game and corresponding betting prices. The collection and analysis of in-game data can inform players, coaches and staff on effective decision making during sporting events.Novel features of the book include: an analysis of who were the greatest baseball batters; analyses of the players most important to team success (and they are not necessarily the best players) in basketball, NFL football and hockey; a tutorial on risk arbitrage and its applications to NFL football and NBA basketball; a discussion of many ad hoc decision rules by coaches and players and what was really optimal; in the racing section we discuss breeding, the analysis of various bets like the Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6, a discussion and betting on the most important races and a visit to the Breeders' Cup with Ed Thorp to demonstrate the place and show system in action.

This book is a collection of applications of analytic techniques to a number of popular sports including baseball, basketball, hockey, Jai Alai, NFL football and horseracing. We focus on both the statistics of the sporting events and betting strategies on the events. The subject is fascinating as there are many twists and subtle complicated decisions.Sports analytics applies mathematical and statistical methods to important questions in the structure and performance of sporting activities using the same basic methods and approaches as data analysts in other disciplines.Sports games and events are a fruitful area for study and to evaluate betting strategies as there is extensive data and mean reversion. With prices changing continuously, risk arbitrage bets can be made. Moreover, little errors, like a penalty to a player or an error in a call by a referee, can change the score of a game and corresponding betting prices. The collection and analysis of in-game data can inform players, coaches and staff on effective decision making during sporting events.Novel features of the book include: an analysis of who were the greatest baseball batters; analyses of the players most important to team success (and they are not necessarily the best players) in basketball, NFL football and hockey; a tutorial on risk arbitrage and its applications to NFL football and NBA basketball; a discussion of many ad hoc decision rules by coaches and players and what was really optimal; in the racing section we discuss breeding, the analysis of various bets like the Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6, a discussion and betting on the most important races and a visit to the Breeders' Cup with Ed Thorp to demonstrate the place and show system in action.

This volume brings together both political and educational scientists. While educational research literature has so far not systematically addressed the tool of simulations of decision-making, political scientists have hardly used insights from research on assessment or on motivation and interest of students. Almost all political science publications on simulations merely discuss how to implement the tool in class and fall short of providing evidence of the effects on student outcomes such as increased interest and performance. Combining the two disciplines is mutually enriching. Political science benefits from state of the art educational science measuring and testing of the claims made by the proponents of simulations, while educational sciences adds the systematic analysis of simulations of decision-making to their list of empirical objects, which also adds insights to the theories on the affective component of student learning. It is the explicit aim of the volume to address how simulating decision-making environments fosters learning. Implications for research and practice regarding student learning are addressed in all chapters.

Provides an insight to safety managers in analyzing bad events and the ways to deal with them. Covers randomness, uncertainty, and predictability in detail. Explains concepts including reverse stress testing, real-time monitoring, and predictive maintenance in a comprehensive manner. Presents mathematical analysis of incidents and accidents using statistics and probabilities theories.

What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? 'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator 'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.

How do accidents and disasters occur? How has knowledge of accident processes evolved? A significant improvement in safety has occurred during the past century, with the number of accidents falling spectacularly within industry, aviation and road traffic. This progress has been gradual in the context of a changing society. The improvements are partly due to a better understanding of the accident processes that ultimately lead to damage. This book shows how contemporary crises instigated the development of safety knowledge and how the safety sciences pieced their theories together by research, by experience and by taking ideas from other domains. From Safety to Safety Science details 150 years of knowledge development in the safety sciences. The authors have rigorously extracted the essence of safety knowledge development from more than 2,500 articles to provide a unique overview and insight into the background and usability of safety theories, as well as modelling how they developed and how they are used today. Extensive appendices and references provide an additional dimension to support further scholarly work in this field. The book is divided into clear time periods to make it an accessible piece of science history that will be invaluable to both new and experienced safety researchers, to safety courses and education, and to learned practitioners.

This book aims to explain Data Analytics towards decision making in terms of models and algorithms, theoretical concepts, applications, experiments in relevant domains or focused on specific issues. It explores the concepts of database technology, machine learning, knowledge-based system, high performance computing, information retrieval, finding patterns hidden in large datasets and data visualization. Also, it presents various paradigms including pattern mining, clustering, classification, and data analysis. Overall aim is to provide technical solutions in the field of data analytics and data mining. Features: Covers descriptive statistics with respect to predictive analytics and business analytics. Discusses different data analytics platforms for real-time applications. Explain SMART business models. Includes algorithms in data sciences alongwith automated methods and models. Explores varied challenges encountered by researchers and businesses in the realm of real-time analytics. This book aims at researchers and graduate students in data analytics, data sciences, data mining, and signal processing.

Nowadays, decision problems are pervaded with incomplete knowledge, i.e., imprecision and/or uncertain information, both in the problem description and in the preferential information. In this volume leading scientists in the field address various theoretical and practical aspects related to the handling of this incompleteness. The problems discussed are taken from multi-objective linear programming, rationality considerations in preference modelling, non-probabilistic utility theory, data fusion, group decision making and multicriteria decision aid. The book is oriented towards researchers, graduate and postgraduate students in decision analysis, fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, and operations research/management science.

Real risk management is predicated on the eventuality of human erraticism and therefore necessitates the design of resilient systems, such as control measures, policies, procedures, processes, rules, checklists, and protocols, to protect organizations against unpredictability. However, these systems aren't enough to prevent tragedies, they must be paired with an organizational culture that drives employee understanding, adherence, questioning, and enforcement of these systems. Success is conditioned on this interdependent relationship, meaning employees do the right thing, the right way every time, as they unequivocally support the underlying rationale of their organizational systems, mission, and purpose. This dynamic, inculcated way of thinking is intrinsic to high-reliability organizations and should be the aspiration of all executives, managers, and supervisors. Authors Gordon Graham and Paul Fuller impart a wide range of practical information on resilient systems- as these thoughtfully designed protocols, kept up-to-date and properly implemented, serve to minimize organizational risk in the water and wastewater industry. Features: Offers guidance for organizations to maximize service, enhance safety, and minimize liability. Presents fundamental background on risk, systems, risk management, as well as factors leading to industrial tragedies and how to avoid or mitigate them. Includes practical examples to demonstrate the necessary steps to transform a water facility into a highly reliable and safe organization. Centering on organizational risk management, Practitioner's Handbook of Risk Management for Water & Wastewater Systems provides the investigative tools for risk assessments and risk/frequency matrixes to effectively recognize and prioritize the thousands of risks facing professionals working in the water and wastewater industry today.

"Foundations of Risk Analysis" presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision makin"g." This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment.

""New material in "Foundations of Risk Analysis "includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk.Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities.

In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle.

"Foundations of Risk Analysis" provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.