Decision-Making Management: A Tutorial and Applications provides practical guidance for researchers seeking to optimizing business-critical decisions employing Logical Decision Trees thus saving time and money. The book focuses on decision-making and resource allocation across and between the manufacturing, product design and logistical functions. It demonstrates key results for each sector with diverse real-world case studies drawn primarily from EU projects. Theory is accompanied by relevant analysis techniques, with a progressional approach building from simple theory to complex and dynamic decisions with multiple data points, including big data and lot of data. Binary Decision Diagrams are presented as the operating approach for evaluating large Logical Decision Trees, helping readers identify Boolean equations for quantitative analysis of multifaceted problem sets. Computational techniques, dynamic analysis, probabilistic methods, and mathematical optimization techniques are expertly blended to support analysis of multi-criteria decision-making problems with defined constraints and requirements. The final objective is to optimize dynamic decisions with original approaches employing useful tools, including Big Data analysis. Extensive annexes provide useful supplementary information for readers to follow methods contained in the book.

Fire safety is a major concern in many industries, particularly as there have been significant increases in recent years in the quantities of hazardous materials in process, storage or transport. Plants are becoming larger and are often situated in or close to densely populated areas, and the hazards are continually highlighted with incidents such as the fires and explosions at the Piper Alpha oil and gas platform, and the Enschede firework factory. As a result, greater attention than ever before is now being given to the evaluation and control of these hazards.

In a comprehensive treatment of the subject unavailable elsewhere, this book describes in detail the applications of hazard and risk analysis to fire safety, going on to develop and apply quantification methods. It also gives an explanation in quantitative terms of improvements in fire safety in association with the costs that are expended in their achievement. Furthermore, a quantitative approach is applied to major fire and explosion disasters to demonstrate crucial faults and events.

Featuring:

Full international coverage and a review of several major fires and explosion disasters.Presentation of the properties and science of fire including the latest research.Detailed coverage of the performance of fire safety measures.

This is an essential book for practitioners in fire safety engineering, loss prevention professionals, technical personnel in insurance companies as well as academics involved in fire science and postgraduate students. This book is also a useful reference for fire safety officers, building designers, engineers in the process industries, safety practitioners and risk assessment consultants.

Risks are everywhere in the business world. "Mastering Risk Modelling" provides the busy financial manager with useful tips andpractical templates for assessing, applying and modelling risk and uncertainty in Excel. The book is designed specifically to be of help to you if you don't have time to start from scratch - it will improve your abilities in Excel and give you a library of basic examples that you can use as a basis for further development.

It covers:

- Review of model design

- Risk and uncertainty

- Credit risk

- Project finance

- Financial analysis

- Valuation

- Options

- Bonds

- Equities

- Value at risk

- Simulation

This second edition contains brand new chapters:

- Revised models

- More material on credit risk modelling e.g. portfolios, bankruptcy models

- Shows dual 2003/2007 Excel key strokes

- More theory especially on statistics in Excel

- Basic statistics in Excel - tools and methods

- Capacity to borrow and repay

- Finding optimum mix of risk and return

- Fixed income risk models

- Visual Basic approach

Since 2007, the repeated financial crises around the world have brought to the headlines financial practices and models considered to fuel the economic instabilities. Deep Dive into Financial Models: Modeling Risk and Uncertainty comes handy in demystifying the underlying quantitative finance concepts. With a limited use of mathematical formalism, the book explains thoroughly the models, their hypotheses, principles and other building blocks. A particular care is given to model limitations and their misuse for investment strategies, asset pricing, or risk management. Its reader-friendly nature provides readers with a head start in quantitative finance.

What existential threats does humanity face? And how can we secure our future? 'The Precipice is a powerful book . . . Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious' Spectator 'Ord's analysis of the science is exemplary . . . Thrillingly written' Sunday Times We live during the most important era of human history. In the twentieth century, we developed the means to destroy ourselves - without developing the moral framework to ensure we won't. This is the Precipice, and how we respond to it will be the most crucial decision of our time. Oxford moral philosopher Toby Ord explores the risks to humanity's future, from the familiar man-made threats of climate change and nuclear war, to the potentially greater, more unfamiliar threats from engineered pandemics and advanced artificial intelligence. With clear and rigorous thinking, Ord calculates the various risk levels, and shows how our own time fits within the larger story of human history. We can say with certainty that the novel coronavirus does not pose such a risk. But could the next pandemic? And what can we do, in our present moment, to face the risks head on? A major work that brings together the disciplines of physics, biology, earth and computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, political science and moral philosophy, The Precipice is a call for a new understanding of our age: a major reorientation in the way we see the world, our history, and the role we play in it.

This book proposes several commonly used interval-valued solution concepts of interval-valued cooperative games with transferable utility. It thoroughly investigates these solutions, thereby establishing the properties, models, methods, and applications. The first chapter proposes the interval-valued least square solutions and quadratic programming models, methods, and properties. Next, the satisfactory-degree-based non-linear programming models for computing interval-valued cores and corresponding bisection algorithm are explained. Finally, the book explores several simplification methods of interval-valued solutions: the interval-valued equal division and equal surplus division values; the interval-valued Shapley, egalitarian Shapley, and discounted Shapley values; the interval-valued solidarity and generalized solidarity values; and the interval-valued Banzhaf value. This book is designed for individuals from different fields and disciplines, such as decision science, game theory, management science, operations research, fuzzy sets or fuzzy mathematics, applied mathematics, industrial engineering, finance, applied economics, expert system, and social economy as well as artificial intelligence. Moreover, it is suitable for teachers, postgraduates, and researchers from different disciplines: decision analysis, management, operations research, fuzzy mathematics, fuzzy system analysis, applied mathematics, systems engineering, project management, supply chain management, industrial engineering, applied economics, and hydrology and water resources.

Knowledge in an Uncertain World is an exploration of the relation between knowledge, reasons, and justification. According to the primary argument of the book, you can rely on what you know in action and belief, because what you know can be a reason you have and you can rely on the reasons you have. If knowledge doesn't allow for a chance of error, then this result is unsurprising. But if knowledge does allow for a chance of error - as seems required if we know much of anything at all - this result entails the denial of a received position in epistemology. Because any chance of error, if the stakes are high enough, can make a difference to what can be relied on, two subjects with the same evidence and generally the same strength of epistemic position for a proposition can differ with respect to whether they are in a position to know.
In defending these points, Fantl and McGrath investigate the ramifications for debates about epistemological externalism and contextualism, the value and importance of knowledge, Wittgensteinian hinge propositions, Bayesianism, and the nature of belief. The book is essential reading for epistemologists, philosophers who work on reasons and rationality, philosophers of language and mind, and decision theorists.

This cutting-edge book presents the theory and practice of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), which is used for strategically investigating disputes in any field to enable informed decision making. It clearly explains how GMCR can determine what is the best a particular decision maker (DM) can independently achieve in dynamic interaction with others. Moves and counter-moves follow various stability definitions reflecting human behavior under conflict. The book defines a wide range of preference structures to represent a DM's comparisons of states or scenarios: equally preferred, more or less preferred; unknown; degrees of strength of preference; and hybrid. It vividly describes how GMCR can ascertain whether a DM can fare even better by cooperating with others in a coalition. The book portrays how a conflict can evolve from the status quo to a desirable resolution, and provides a universal design for a decision support system to implement the innovative decision technologies using the matrix formulation of GMCR. Further, it illustrates the key ideas using real-world conflicts and supplies problems at the end of each chapter. As such, this highly instructive book benefits teachers, mentors, students and practitioners in any area where conflict arises.

This book focuses on the issues of decision-making with several numerical criteria. It introduces an original general approach to solving multicriteria problems given quantitative information about the preference relation of a decision-maker. It considers the problems with crisp as well as fuzzy preference relations, accepting the four axioms of "reasonable choice". Further, it defines the notion of an information quantum about the preference relation of a decision-maker and studies the reduction of the Pareto set using a finite collection of information quanta, demonstrating that the original approach yields a good approximation for the set of nondominated alternatives in a multicriteria problem. Lastly, it analyzes a possible combination of the axiomatic approach with other well-known methods. Intended for a wide range of professionals involved in solving multicriteria problems, including researchers, design engineers, product engineers, developers and analysts, the book is also a valuable resource for undergraduate and postgraduate students of mathematics, economics, and engineering.

The completely updated, final edition of the global bestseller - one of the most influential books of the 21st century 'Few books can be said to have changed the world, but Nudge did. The Final Edition is marvellous: funny, useful, and wise' Daniel Kahneman Nudge has transformed the way individuals, companies and governments look at the world - and in the process has become one of the most important books of the twenty-first century. This completely updated edition offers a wealth of new insights for fans and newcomers alike - about COVID-19, diet, personal finance, retirement savings, medical care, organ donation, and climate change. Every day we make decisions: about the things we buy or the meals we eat; about the investments we make and the time we spend; about our health and that of the planet. Unfortunately, we often choose badly. We are all susceptible to biases that can lead us to make bad decisions that make us poorer, less healthy and less happy. And, as Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein show, no choice is ever presented to us in a neutral way. But by knowing how people think, we can make it easier for them to choose what is best for themselves, for their families and for society. With brilliant insight and wonderful levity, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how best to nudge us in the right directions, without ever restricting our freedom of choice.

Examines the diverse uses and abuses of risk by social actors across a wide range of cultural, ethnic, and geographical locales. The introductory chapter by the two co-editors analyzes and contextualizes current scholarly debates on the social, cultural, and political construction of risk. It is followed by an overview on the anthropology of harm reduction that outlines an innovative framework for culturally informed risk analysis. The remaining nine chapters are organized into three sections, The Cultivation of Fear, Perceptions of Health, Safety, and Hazard: Risk Makers and Risk Takers, and Regulating Risk and the Public's Health. The book aims to address a set of questions of theoretical and practical importance to anthropologists, sociologists, public health scholars and professionals, and public policy advocates, among others. These questions include: How do individuals conceptualize and respond to risk? Can risk be a tool of empowerment for individuals and communities who define themselves as at-risk? How has risk figured recently in the production of health inequality? Has the social contract to provide care in its broadest sense expanded or contracted around issues of risk? Are risk and the imperative to adhere to risk warnings used by experts as a means of social control?

The volume's contributors, medical anthropologists and sociologists, provide rich, grounded ethnographic case material on the processes at work in everyday social life around the globe, as individuals and groups struggle to make saense of the health risks and inequities in their lives and communities. Authors address an array of urgent health concerns, ranging from food safety to environment, new technologies to infectious disease, in such contrasting locales as the US, Europe, South and Southeast Asia, and North Africa, and across diverse ethnicities and social classes.

This book offers a multidisciplinary perspective on perceived safety. It discusses the concept of safety from engineering, philosophy, and psychology angles, and considers various definitions of safety and its relationship to risk. Examining the categorization of safety and the measurement of risk, risk cultures, basic human needs and decision-making under uncertainty, the contributions demonstrate the practical implications and applications in areas such as health behavior, aviation and sports. Topics covered include: What is "safety" and is there "optimal safety" in engineering? Philosophical perspectives on safety and risk Psychological perspectives on perceived safety: social factors of feeling safe Psychological perspectives on perceived safety: zero-risk bias, feelings & learned carelessness Perception of aviation safety Intended for both practitioners and academic researchers, this book appeals to anyone interested in decision-making and the perception and establishment of safety.

Measurement, Judgment, and Decision Making provides an excellent introduction to measurement, which is one of the most basic issues of the science of psychology and the key to science. Written by leading researchers, the book covers measurement, psychophysical scaling, multidimensional scaling, stimulus categorization, and behavioral decision making. Each chapter provides a useful handbook summary and unlocks the door for a scholar who desires entry to that field.
Any psychologist who manipulates an independent variable that affects a psychological construct or who uses a numerical dependent variable to measure a psychological construct will want to study this book.
Written by leading researchers in fields of measurement, psychophysical scaling, multidimensional scaling, stimulus categorization, and behavioral decision making
Provides basic definitions and summaries of theories
Presents summaries and citations to relevant literature
Contains new developments, current controversies, and open questions
Explains relationships among fields and historical links

Recently there has been much debate over the adoption, implementation, and maintenance of comprehensive health and sexuality education programs in Massachusetts public schools. Advocates of school-based comprehensive health education programs often use a public health approach to substantiate their position. They cite national and statewide statistics about adolescent sexual activity and unsafe sexual practice as a basis for providing students with the facts and the skills to make decisions to prevent pregnancy and the transmission of sexually-transmitted diseases. Opponents often speak about the parents' role in educating their sons and daughters and object to public school instruction that regards homosexuality and safe sex as acceptable choices.

In the literature, many models of community organization focus on the decision-making structure within the community, rather than on the process of social change. Therefore, we often know who makes community decisions, without knowing much about how and why these decisions are made. In this study the process of social change is explored by conducting comparative case studies of two Massachusetts communities.