Putting forward a unified presentation of the features and possible applications of probabilistic preferences composition, and serving as a methodology for decisions employing multiple criteria, this book maximizes reader insights into the evaluation in probabilistic terms and the development of composition approaches that do not depend on assigning weights to the criteria. With key applications in important areas of management such as failure modes, effects analysis and productivity analysis - together with explanations about the application of the concepts involved -this book makes available numerical examples of probabilistic transformation development and probabilistic composition. Useful not only as a reference source for researchers, but also in teaching classes of graduate courses in Production Engineering and Management Science, the key themes of the book will be of especial interest to researchers in the field of Operational Research.

Risk and reward are always foremost in the determination of investment decisions and business transactions. Advances in the area of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) have enabled the development of new business paradigms. Such paradigms involve transactions taking place between loosely connected parties, often totally or partially unknown to one another. One important concept required to ensure such transactions are successful is transactional risk. The importance of doing this has been demonstrated in recent financial crisis. This book is unique in simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of an event occurring and its financial impact and provides an integrated discussion of the process of transactional risk identification, assessment, evaluation, management and recording in these emerging domains. It provides a detailed and clear exposition of the importance of transactional risk before detailing for its assessment and evaluation. The scope of the book is theoretical and practical and as such it will have a broad market both within academia and industry. Specifically this book should be of primary interest to researchers, graduate students and practitioners in the area of developing business intelligence techniques and their application in various real world applications.

This book provides an analysis of strategic behavior in international crises. Various aspects of crisis decision and interaction, such as initiation, misperception, deception, learning, and termination, are studied by means of a game model that incorporates psychological variables. This integrative approach is designed to narrow the gap between psychological and game-theoretical studies of crisis, which are generally considered to be incompatible. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by means of an in-depth case study of the 1967 Middle East crisis. This study will be of interest to scholars in political science and international relations and political science, crisis theory, and game theory.

The first international handbook to bring the areas of reasoning, judgment and decision making together, now in paperback format. The book brings three of the important topics of thinking together - reasoning, judgment and decision making aACAACA" and discusses key issues in each area. The studies described range from those that are purely laboratory based to those that involve experts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical and legal decision making and political and economic forecasting.* International collection of original chapters by leading researchers in the field* Several chapters contain important new theoretical perspectives* Paperback version is more affordable for individual researchers

Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in complex, globally relevant situations. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision to face modern challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of systemic planning. The outcome is a coherent and flexible approach named systemic planning. The inclusion of both the theoretical and practical aspects of systemic planning makes this book a key resource for researchers and students in the field of planning and decision analysis as well as practitioners dealing with strategic analysis and decision making. More broadly, Complex Strategic Choices acts as guide for professionals and students involved in complex planning tasks across several fields such as business and engineering.

Not only are corporations and other organizations sometimes targeted by competitors in order to steal their information, they are also targets of political and/or religious groups who understand their economic and symbolic importance. However, a realistic security strategy requires a big-picture approach. At the same time, budgets are decreasing while security departments are dealing with threats that demand greater vigilance. In the wake of the 2008-2009 global economic meltdown, corporate executives are asking difficult questions about effectiveness and efficiency. The need for both information security and physical security is greater today than ever before, and not only to address more complex and dangerous crisis situations, but also to ensure that the methods deployed are proportionate to the risk.

The notion of risk is the lens from which all such problems must be viewed. This book identifies and explains these foundational principles, and shows how they directly relate to an assessment of physical security risk. This book provides the modern security professional with a useful reference that facilitates both rigorous thinking and sensible decisions about key strategic choices.

* Offers an integrated approach to assessing security risk * Addresses homeland security as well as IT and physical security issues * Describes vital safeguards for ensuring true business continuity

Top businesses recognise risk management as a core feature of their project management process and approach to the governance of projects. However, a mature risk management process is required in order to realise its benefits; one that takes into account the design and implementation of the process and the skills, experience and culture of the people who use it. To be mature in the way you manage risk you need an accepted framework to assess your risk management maturity, allowing you to benchmark against a recognised standard. A structured pathway for improvement is also needed, not just telling you where you are now, but describing the steps required to reach the next level. The Project Risk Maturity Model detailed here provides such an assessment framework and development pathway. It can be used to benchmark your project risk processes and support the introduction of effective in-house project risk management. Using this model, implementation and improvement of project risk management can be managed effectively to ensure that the expected benefits are achieved in a way that is appropriate to the needs of each organisation. Martin Hopkinson has developed The Project Risk Maturity Model into a robust framework, and this book allows you to access and apply his insights and experience. A key feature is a downloadable resource containing a working copy of the QinetiQ Project Risk Maturity Model (RMM). This will enable you to undertake maturity assessments for as many projects as you choose. The RMM has been proven over a period of 10 years, with at least 250 maturity assessments on projects and programmes with a total value exceeding £60 billion. A case study in the book demonstrates how it has been used to deliver significant and measurable benefits to the performance of major projects.

Table of Contents

Contents: Foreword; Preface; Part I Introduction to the Project Risk Maturity Model: The project risk maturity model; Scope and context; Starting from the top: using a multi-pass risk management process; The UK MoD defence procurement agency: a project risk maturity model case study; Risk maturity model data collection; Part II Guide to the Project Risk Maturity Model: Stakeholders; Risk identification; Risk analysis; Risk reponses; Project management; Risk management culture; Appendices; References; Software user instructions; Index.

The mental well-being of children and adults is shockingly poor. Marc Brackett, author of Permission to Feel, knows why. And he knows what we can do.

Marc Brackett is a professor in Yale University’s Child Study Center and founding director of the Yale Center for Emotional Intelligence. In his 25 years as an emotion scientist, he has developed a remarkably effective plan to improve the lives of children and adults – a blueprint for understanding our emotions and using them wisely so that they help, rather than hinder, our success and well-being. The core of his approach is a legacy from his childhood, from an astute uncle who gave him permission to feel. He was the first adult who managed to see Marc, listen to him, and recognize the suffering, bullying, and abuse he’d endured. And that was the beginning of Marc’s awareness that what he was going through was temporary. He wasn’t alone, he wasn’t stuck on a timeline, and he wasn’t “wrong” to feel scared, isolated, and angry. Now, best of all, he could do something about it.

In the decades since, Marc has led large research teams and raised tens of millions of dollars to investigate the roots of emotional well-being. His prescription for healthy children (and their parents, teachers, and schools) is a system called RULER, a high-impact and fast-effect approach to understanding and mastering emotions that has already transformed the thousands of schools that have adopted it. RULER has been proven to reduce stress and burnout, improve school climate, and enhance academic achievement. This book is the culmination of Marc’s development of RULER and his way to share the strategies and skills with readers around the world. It is tested, and it works.

This book combines rigor, science, passion and inspiration in equal parts. Too many children and adults are suffering; they are ashamed of their feelings and emotionally unskilled, but they don’t have to be. Marc Brackett’s life mission is to reverse this course, and this book can show you how.

This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.

High-level guidance for implementing enterprise risk management in any organization

A Practical Guide to Risk Management shows organizations how to implement an effective ERM solution, starting with senior management and risk and compliance professionals working together to categorize and assess risks throughout the enterprise. Detailed guidance is provided on the key risk categories, including financial, operational, reputational, and strategic areas, along with practical tips on how to handle risks that overlap across categories. Provides high-level guidance on how to implement enterprise risk management across any organizationIncludes discussion of the latest trends and best practicesFeatures the role of IT in ERM and the tools that are available in both assessment and on-going complianceDiscusses the key challenges that need to be overcome for a successful ERM initiative

Walking readers through the creation of ERM architecture and setting up on-going monitoring and assessement processes, this is an essential book for every CFO, controller and IT manager.

One of the most critical issues facing supply chain managers in today's globalized and highly uncertain business environments is how to deal proactively with disruptions that might affect the complicated supply networks characterizing modern enterprises. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk presents a state-of the-art perspective on this particular issue. Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk demonstrates that effective management of supply disruptions necessitates both strategic and tactical measures - the former involving optimal design of supply networks; the latter involving inventory, finance and demand management. It shows that managers ought to use all available levers at their disposal throughout the supply network - like sourcing and pricing strategies, providing financial subsidies, encouraging information sharing and incentive alignment between supply chain partners - in order to tackle supply disruptions. The editors combine up-to-date academic research with the latest operational risk management practices used in industry to demonstrate how theoreticians and practitioners can learn from each other. As well as providing a wealth of knowledge for students and professors who are interested in pursuing research or teaching courses in the rapidly growing area of supply chain risk management, Supply Chain Disruptions: Theory and Practice of Managing Risk also acts as a ready reference for practitioners who are interested in understanding the theoretical underpinnings of effective supply disruption management techniques.

This book offers a cross disciplinary treatment of the rapidly growing field of integrated approaches in risk assessment in mountainous areas. All major aspects related to hazard and risk assessment, risk management, and governance are illustrated with a wide range of case studies. The first part of the book focuses on new techniques for assessing the natural hazards of different types of mass movements. State-of-the-art techniques for morphological characterization and monitoring of displacements are described. Computational advances are covered to explain the process systems and to quantify the hazards of fast and slow-moving landslides. In the second part of the book methodologies are included for assessing the impact of these natural hazards on the society in terms of risks. In this part, methodologies for defining the vulnerability of the elements at risk are shown and the use of run-out models for risk assessment of the dangerous rapid mass movements are evaluated. The third part of the book focuses on the response of society towards the problems of hazard and risk. It highlights the role of spatial planning, early warning systems and evacuation plans for risk management. It establishes practical thresholds for acceptable and tolerable risks and emphasizes the importance of education and communication to society. Audience The book is of interest to a wide range of experts from related disciplines, practitioners and stakeholders to demonstrate the importance of an integrated approach for all aspects of risks in mountainous areas.

Risk Culture is a practical volume devoted to the qualitative aspects of risk management, including those that should be firmly embedded in the corporate culture. Through descriptions, examples and case studies, the book analyzes weak and strong cultures and proposes a series of structural and behavioral actions to strengthen a company's culture.

Have you ever wondered why you make bad decisions? Or why it's so hard to make a decision in the first place? Through pioneering research into behavioural science, decisions expert Dr Sheheryar Banuri has designed an entirely novel decision-making framework which can be adopted into everyday life to help us better our decision-making skills by understanding and streamlining the process. The result? Simple, effective and efficient techniques to combat indecision. The Decisive Mind will draw on examples from evolutionary psychology, examine our ability (or inability) to prioritise and highlight the scenarios that force decision-making errors, and help us understand our own minds. By unpicking a lifetime's worth of misconceptions about our own decision-making patterns and habits, this book will guide you on your first steps towards optimising your own brain space.

The International Section on Machine and System Safety was founded in 1975 to deal with questions on occupational risks in this ?eld at the inter- tional level. It is a member of the Special Commission on Prevention of the International Social Security Association (ISSA). The Special Commission is a body within ISSA that focuses on work-related risks. It has 11 inter- tional Sections as members. ISSA was founded in 1927 with its headquarters in Geneva. It is working worldwide in over 150 countries with nearly 370 member institutions from all ?elds of social security. TheSection on Machine and System Safety, when it was founded, had its focus on machine safety, particularly on the ma- facturing of safe machinery, on assisting developing countries to be able to buy safe used machinery, and on delivering clear operating instructions. Our members and partners are: * institutions for safety and health at work; * insurance companies dealing with work-related risks; * research institutions; and * various enterprises, e.g. manufacturers, importers and users of machines and systems/installations. We thus bring together the experiences of our members and partners. The role of the operators soon grew in importance, and their capability for ha- ling machinery became an important factor for the safety and success of enterprises. The growing importance and complexity of handling different man-machine-environment situations created new challenges and led to - larging the Section's tasks to machine and system safety.

Epidemics know no borders and are often characterized by a high level of uncertainty, causing major challenges in risk governance. The author shows the emergence of global risk governance processes and the key role that the World Health Organization (WHO) plays within them.