This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2021, which was planned to be held in Toronto, ON, Canada, during June 6-10, 2021. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 12 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 74 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: pandemic responses; preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; and collaborative decision making processes.

If a major event such as a terrorist attack, 7.2 earthquake, tsunami, or hacker attack were to disrupt business operations, would your organization be prepared to respond to the financial, political, and social impacts? In order for your company to be resilient, it must be ready to respond and recover quickly from the impact of such events. Business continuity is the discipline that can help your organization become truly resilient. Business Continuity Planning: A Project Management Approach explains how to deploy project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness methods in a manner that will ensure organizational resiliency. With an emphasis on building business preparedness plans, it covers the fundamental principles of project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness. Upon reading this book, you will learn how to apply project management to institute business continuity governance and to build and maintain business preparedness plans. You will also learn what's required to conduct an effective business impact analysis. Detailing a proven plan for achieving business continuity and business preparedness, the book includes numerous diagrams, checklists, and tools to help you determine exactly what you must do to prepare for a serious event. It also explains how to test your continuity plans and evaluate preparedness processes to ensure your organization will be truly prepared to withstand or recover from the next emergency, disaster, or catastrophic event to affect your organization.

Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.

The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.

An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Implement practical solutions in business continuity management and organizational resilience guided by international best practice from ISO 22301:2019. Business continuity management and resilience are critical to maintaining a healthy business, but many organizations either do nothing (leaving themselves exposed to disruption), take short cuts (leaving major gaps) or fail to properly engage senior stakeholders. This book is a straightforward guide to delivering an effective business continuity capability, including practical solutions built from the author's personal experience managing hundreds of projects in a variety of business settings. Business Continuity Management compares incident management, crisis response and business continuity and how to explain their importance to senior decision makers to ensure appropriate investment. Readers will benefit from case studies of organizational crises and disruptions, including Home Depot, Nissan, RBS, Facebook, Equifax and KFC, and an exploration of lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. With key performance indicators, templates and checklists covering planning, response, reporting and assurance, this book is the essential reference for business continuity and resilience which can be tailored to any organization.

"Pullman offers his readers essential insights into how humans reason and make decisions. Both concise and far-reaching, his work teaches us how to challenge intuitive logic and examine the processes for deliberative reasoning. This text will prove foundational for students in their intellectual journey toward the development of real skills in critical thinking. By pointing to simple yet profound examples, Pullman's text is both readable and provocative as it challenges us to consider the very mechanisms by which we understand our own cognitive biases." --Bradley A. Hammer, Department of English and Comparative Literature, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

'An endlessly fascinating tour of the many different factors influencing our decision-making and reasoning' David Robson, author of The Intelligence Trap 'An eye-opening and engaging richness of information that gives us a detailed insight into the strengths and weaknesses of human behaviour' Melissa Hogenboom, author of The Motherhood Complex Do emotions really cloud your thinking? Are habits holding you back? Is AI manipulating your mind? Does IQ help you think better? Every one of our thoughts, actions, moods and decisions is shaped by a whole array of factors, most of which we don't pay any attention to. From culture, time and language to genetics, technology and the microorganisms living inside us - even our own unconscious routines and habits - it's clear that we aren't always in the driving seat. The good news is that by better understanding the external and internal forces at work, we can minimise their impact on our lives. Drawing on rigorous interdisciplinary research, leading science journalists Miriam Frankel and Matt Warren bring us extraordinary stories and studies that open our eyes to the inner workings of the mind, challenge our thought processes and improve our decision-making. Most of all, Are You Thinking Clearly? is a rallying cry to know yourself, think broadly, think boldly - and to listen. 'Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand why their beliefs, mistakes, emotions and intuitions are the way they are' Richard Gray, BBC Future

Winning takes many forms. For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making - rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. And to help us all win more. 'An absolutely fascinating book' THE GAME, The Times football pod How do you spot the opportunities that others miss? How do you turn a team's performance around? How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve? As chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. Making Decisions reveals Smith's unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. Whatever the power of data, humans aren't finished yet. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith's book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.

This comprehensive, yet accessible, guide to enterprise risk management for financial institutions contains all the tools needed to build and maintain an ERM framework. It discusses the internal and external contexts with which risk management must be carried out, and it covers a range of qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be used to identify, model and measure risks. This new edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect new legislation and the creation of the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. It includes new content on Bayesian networks, expanded coverage of Basel III, a revised treatment of operational risk and a fully revised index. Over 100 diagrams are used to illustrate the range of approaches available, and risk management issues are highlighted with numerous case studies. This book also forms part of the core reading for the UK actuarial profession's specialist technical examination in enterprise risk management, ST9.

In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation.

De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets

This book aims to encourage a more reflective, multidisciplinary approach to public safety, and the 'reenfranchisement' of those affected by this new phenomenon. Over the past decade health and safety has become a major issue of public interest. There are countless stories of health and safety activities interfering with public life, preventing some beneficial activity from taking place - even creating absurd or dangerous situations. On the one hand, risk assessment, properly conducted, is highly beneficial - it save lives and prevents injuries. But on the other, it can damage public life. Why has this come about, and does it have to be like that? The authors examine the origins of the problem, look critically at the tools used by safety assessors and their underlying assumptions, and consider important differences between public life and industry (where the approaches largely originated). They illuminate the whole with an analysis of legal requirements, attitudes of stakeholders, and recent research on risk perception and decision making. The result is a profound and important analysis of risk and safety culture and a framework for managing public safety more effectively.

How do educators build High Reliability Schools (HRS) and boost academic achievement? By implementing interdependent systems of operation and performance assessment for student-centered learning. A critical commitment to becoming an HRS is the PLC at Work(TM) process of collaborative learning and teaching. This user-friendly teaching resource focuses on: (1) a safe and collaborative culture, (2) effective teaching in every classroom, (3) a guaranteed and viable curriculum, (4) standards-referenced reporting of student progress (standards-based grading), and (5) a competency-based system. Marzano, Warrick, Rains, and DuFour will help you: Increase school effectiveness through a focus on student-centered learning and the implementation of research-based leading indicators of operation. Monitor effective practices through the use of lagging indicators and quick data sources. Explore the three big ideas associated with the PLC at Work(TM) process to implement student-centered learning, collaborative teaching strategies, and data-driven instruction. Engage in periodic reflection on effective school leadership and instructional coaching practices. Understand how to balance and achieve school and district goals using data to improve students' academic achievement and college- and career-readiness skills. Contents: Foreword Introduction Chapter 1: High Reliability Organizations and School Leadership Chapter 2: Safe and Collaborative Culture Chapter 3: Effective Teaching in Every Classroom Chapter 4: Guaranteed and Viable Curriculum Chapter 5: Standards-Referenced Reporting Chapter 6: Competency-Based Education Chapter 7: District Leadership in High Reliability Schools Appendix References and Resources Index

Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a recently developed, simplified method of risk assessment that provides the much-needed middle ground between a qualitative process hazard analysis and a traditional, expensive quantitative risk analysis. Beginning with an identified accident scenario, LOPA uses simplifying rules to evaluate initiating event frequency, independent layers of protection, and consequences to provide an order-of-magnitude estimate of risk. LOPA has also proven an excellent approach for determining the safety integrity level necessary for an instrumented safety system, an approach endorsed in instrument standards, such as ISA S84 and IEC 61511. Written by industry experts in LOPA, this pioneering book provides all the necessary information to undertake and complete a Layer of Protection Analysis during any stage in a processes' life cycle. Loaded with tables, charts, and examples, this book is invaluable to technical experts involved with ensuring the safety of a process. Because of its simplified, quicker risk assessment approach, LOPA is destined to become a widely used technique. Join other major companies and start your LOPA efforts now by purchasing this book.

Kids love exploring new ways of solving problems, especially in fun and challenging puzzle formats. In Math and Logic Puzzles That Make Kids Think!, the author presents several variations on Sudoku-the most well-known type of logic puzzle-in an easy-to-use, exciting format perfect for any math classroom. These language-independent logic puzzles provide kids with great problems to stretch how they think and reason. Each puzzle variation utilizes some of the basic strategies of Sudoku puzzles, but each one also draws upon other areas of mathematics-ordering of numbers, properties of geometric shapes, basic operations, or enriched number sense. This book provides teachers with puzzles arranged by difficulty level that can be used to support and enhance students' mathematical investigations. It also provides a new and exciting context for the development of students' deductive reasoning skills, which can lay the foundation for further mathematical exploration. Grades 6-8

A wide variety of ready-to-use number talks that help kindergarten through second-grade students learn math concepts in fun and easy ways Bringing the exciting teaching method of number talks into your classroom has never been easier. Simply choose from the hundreds of great ideas in this book and get going, with no extra time wasted! From activities on addition and subtraction to fractions and decimals, Classroom-Ready Number Talks for Kindergarten, First and Second Grade Teachers includes: Grade-level specific strategies Number talk how-tos Visual and numerical examples Scaffolding suggestions Common core alignments Questions to build understanding Reduce time spent lesson planning and preparing materials and enjoy more time engaging your students in learning important math concepts! These ready-to-use number talks are sure to foster a fresh and exciting learning environment in your classroom, as well as help your students increase their comprehension of numbers and mathematical principles.

This book is about improving human decision making and performance in complex, dynamic tasks. The defining characteristics of a dynamic decision task are that there are a number of decisions required, that decisions are interdependent and that the environment in which the decision is made is transient and feedback is pervasive. Examples of dynamic tasks include the sustainable management of renewable resources and how businesses might allocate resources for research and development (R&D) projects. Decision making in dynamic tasks can be improved through training with system dynamics-based interactive learning environments (ILE's) that include systematic debriefing. Some key features of the book include its didactic approach, numerous tables, figures, and the multidimensional evaluative model. Researchers can use the developed "evaluation model" to gauge various decision-aiding technologies. How to Improve Human Performance in Dynamic Tasks appeals to those interested in the design and evaluation of simulation-based decision support systems, as well as policy makers, students, researchers, and industrialists concerned by the issue of improving human performance in organizational tasks.

Winning takes many forms. For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making - rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. And to help us all win more. 'An absolutely fascinating book' THE GAME, The Times football pod How do you spot the opportunities that others miss? How do you turn a team's performance around? How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve? As chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. Making Decisions reveals Smith's unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. Whatever the power of data, humans aren't finished yet. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith's book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.

This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues-such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options-that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.