This book begins with the fundamental large sample theory, estimating ruin probability, and ends by dealing with the latest issues of estimating the Gerber-Shiu function. This book is the first to introduce the recent development of statistical methodologies in risk theory (ruin theory) as well as their mathematical validities. Asymptotic theory of parametric and nonparametric inference for the ruin-related quantities is discussed under the setting of not only classical compound Poisson risk processes (Cramer-Lundberg model) but also more general Levy insurance risk processes. The recent development of risk theory can deal with many kinds of ruin-related quantities: the probability of ruin as well as Gerber-Shiu's discounted penalty function, both of which are useful in insurance risk management and in financial credit risk analysis. In those areas, the common stochastic models are used in the context of the structural approach of companies' default. So far, the probabilistic point of view has been the main concern for academic researchers. However, this book emphasizes the statistical point of view because identifying the risk model is always necessary and is crucial in the final step of practical risk management.

Presents information sources and methodologies for modeling and simulating banking system stability Combining both academic and institutional knowledge and experience, Banking Systems Simulation: Theory, Practice, and Application of Modeling Shocks, Losses, and Contagion presents banking system risk modeling clearly within a theoretical framework. Written from the global financial perspective, the book explores single bank risk, common bank exposures, and contagion, and how these apply on a systemic level. Zedda approaches these simulation methods logically by providing the basic building blocks of modeling and simulation, and then delving further into the individual techniques that make up a systems model. In addition, the author provides clear and detailed explanations of the foundational research into the mathematical and legal concepts used to analyze banking risk problems, measures and data for representing the main banking risk sources, and the major problems researchers are likely to encounter. There are numerous software descriptions throughout, with references and tools to help readers gain a proper understanding of the presented techniques and possibly develop new applications and research. The book concludes with an appendix that features real-world datasets and models. In addition, this book: Provides a comprehensive overview of methods for analyzing models and simulating risk for banking and financial systems Provides a clear presentation of the technical and legal concepts used in banking regulation Presents unique insights from an expert s perspective, with specific coverage of assessing risks and developing what-if analyses at the systems level Concludes with a discussion of applications, including banking systems regulation what-if tests, cost-benefit analysis, evaluations of banking systems stability effects on public finances, dimensioning, and risk-based contributions for Deposit Guarantee Schemes (DGS) and Resolution Funds Banking Systems Simulation: Theory, Practice, and Application of Modeling Shocks, Losses, and Contagion is ideal for banking researchers focusing on computational methods of analysis as well as an appropriate reference for graduate-level students in banking, finance, and computational methods. Stefano Zedda is Researcher in Financial Mathematics at the University of Cagliari in Italy and qualified as associate professor in banking and corporate finance. His research is mainly focused on quantitative analyses for banking and finance, with a particular focus on banking systems modeling and simulation. In 2008, Zedda developed the mathematical modeling and software implementation of the Systemic Model for Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL), further developed during his activity at the European Commission. The Commission subsequently adopted it as a standard tool for testing banking regulation proposals. Stefano Zedda s research interests include banking, financial mathematics, and statistics, specifically simulation of banking and financial systems stability, banking regulation impact assessment, and interactive agent simulation.

In an age of globalization, widely distributed systems, and rapidly advancing technological change, IT professionals and their managers must understand that risk is ever present. The key to project success is to identify risk and subsequently deal with it. The CIO's Guide to Risk addresses the many faces of risk, whether it be in systems development, adoption of bleeding edge tech, the push for innovation, and even the march toward all things social media. Risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, contingency planning, and risk monitoring and control are all addressed on a macro as well as micro level. The book begins with a big-picture view of analyzing technology trends to evaluate risk. It shows how to conceptualize trends, analyze their effect on infrastructure, develop metrics to measure success, and assess risk in adapting new technology. The book takes an in-depth look at project-related risks. It explains the fundamentals of project management and how project management relates to systems development and technology implementation. Techniques for analyzing project risk include brainstorming, the Delphi technique, assumption analysis, and decision analysis. Metrics to track and control project risks include the Balance Scorecard, project monitoring and reporting, and business and technology metrics. The book also takes an in-depth look at the role of knowledge management and innovation management in identifying, assessing, and managing risk. The book concludes with an executive's guide to the legal and privacy issues related to risk management, as well overviews of risks associated with social media and mobile environments. With its checklists, templates, and worksheets, the book is an indispensable reference on risk and information technology.

In Being Rational and Being Right, Juan Comesana argues for a cluster of theses related to the rationality of action and belief. His starting point is that rational action requires rational belief but tolerates false belief. From there, Comesana provides a novel account of empirical evidence according to which said evidence consists of the content of undefeated experiences. This view, which Comesana calls "Experientialism," differs from the two main views of empirical evidence on offer nowadays: Factualism, according to which our evidence is what we know, and Psychologism, according to which our experiences themselves are evidence. He reasons that Experientialism fares better than these rival views in explaining different features of rational belief and action. Comesana embeds this discussion in a Bayesian framework, and discusses in addition the problem of normative requirements, the easy knowledge problem, and how Experientialism compares to Evidentialism, Reliabilism, and Comesana's own (now superseded) Evidentialist Reliabilism.

Chance inevitably plays a role in law but it is not often that we consciously try to import an element of randomness into a legal process. Random Justice: On Lotteries and Legal Decision-Making explores the potential for the use of lotteries in social, and particularly legal, decision-making contexts. Utilizing a variety of disciplines and materials, Neil Duxbury considers in detail the history, advantages, and drawbacks of deciding issues of social significance by lot and argues that the value of the lottery as a legal decision-making device has generally been underestimated. The very fact that there exists widespread resistance to the use of lotteries for legal decision-making purposes betrays a commonly held belief that legal processes are generally more important than are legal outcomes. Where, owing to the existence of indeterminacy, the process of reasoning is likely to be excessively protracted and the reasons provided strongly contestable, the most cost-efficient and impartial decision-making strategy may well be recourse to lot. Aversion to this strategy, while generally understandable, is not necessarily rational. Yet in law, as Professor Duxbury demonstrates, reason is generally valued more highly than is rationality. The lottery is often conceived to be a decision-making device that operates in isolation. Yet lotteries can frequently and profitably be incorporated into other decision-frameworks. The book concludes by controversially considering how lotteries might be so incorporated and also advances the thesis that it may sometimes be sensible to require that adjudication takes place in the shadow of a lottery.

This volume presents 71 articles dealing with models and methods of data analysis and classification, statistics and stochastics, information systems and text analysis as well as manifold applications. These articles are se lected from about 160 papers presented at the 20th Annual Conference of the Gesellschaft fUr Klassifikation. This conference was organized by R. Klar, at the Abteilung fiir Medizinische Informatik of the University of Freiburg from March 6 to 8, 1996. Based on the submitted and revised papers eight sections have been arranged, where the number of papers in the sections is given in parentheses: 1. Data Analysis and Classification (10) 2. Neural Networks and Pattern Recognition (4) 3. Statistical Models and Methods (11) 4. Information Systems: Design and Implementation (7) 5. Text Analysis and Information Retrieval (10) 6. Applications in Medicine (15) 7. Applications in Economics and Social Sciences (7) 8. Applications in Archaeology, Biology, Linguistics and Dialectometry (7) This grouping doesn't separate strictly, but it shows how theoretical aspects, applications and interdisciplinarities are interrelated in many respects. For convenience of the reader the contents of this volumne is briefly summarized. 1. Data Analysis and Classification This section presents ten articles dealing with different problems of data analysis and classification, especially with several aspects of multidimen sional scaling (MDS), three-way data analysis, stochastic aspects in cluster ing and regression of ordinal data. The survey article of M. W. Trosset considers an approach to define and classify MDS problems as optimization problems."

Stochastic games have an element of chance: the state of the next round is determined probabilistically depending upon players' actions and the current state. Successful players need to balance the need for short-term payoffs while ensuring future opportunities remain high. The various techniques needed to analyze these often highly non-trivial games are a showcase of attractive mathematics, including methods from probability, differential equations, algebra, and combinatorics. This book presents a course on the theory of stochastic games going from the basics through to topics of modern research, focusing on conceptual clarity over complete generality. Each of its chapters introduces a new mathematical tool - including contracting mappings, semi-algebraic sets, infinite orbits, and Ramsey's theorem, among others - before discussing the game-theoretic results they can be used to obtain. The author assumes no more than a basic undergraduate curriculum and illustrates the theory with numerous examples and exercises, with solutions available online.

Stochastic games have an element of chance: the state of the next round is determined probabilistically depending upon players' actions and the current state. Successful players need to balance the need for short-term payoffs while ensuring future opportunities remain high. The various techniques needed to analyze these often highly non-trivial games are a showcase of attractive mathematics, including methods from probability, differential equations, algebra, and combinatorics. This book presents a course on the theory of stochastic games going from the basics through to topics of modern research, focusing on conceptual clarity over complete generality. Each of its chapters introduces a new mathematical tool - including contracting mappings, semi-algebraic sets, infinite orbits, and Ramsey's theorem, among others - before discussing the game-theoretic results they can be used to obtain. The author assumes no more than a basic undergraduate curriculum and illustrates the theory with numerous examples and exercises, with solutions available online.

Info-metrics is a framework for modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is an interdisciplinary framework situated at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. In Advances in Info-Metrics, Min Chen, J. Michael Dunn, Amos Golan, and Aman Ullah bring together a group of thirty experts to expand the study of info-metrics across the sciences and demonstrate how to solve problems using this interdisciplinary framework. Building on the theoretical underpinnings of info-metrics, the volume sheds new light on statistical inference, information, and general problem solving. The book explores the basis of information-theoretic inference and its mathematical and philosophical foundations. It emphasizes the interrelationship between information and inference and includes explanations of model building, theory creation, estimation, prediction, and decision making. Each of the nineteen chapters provides the necessary tools for using the info-metrics framework to solve a problem. The collection covers recent developments in the field, as well as many new cross-disciplinary case studies and examples. Designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across disciplines, this book provides a clear, hands-on experience for readers interested in solving problems when presented with incomplete and imperfect information.

The Christoffel-Darboux kernel, a central object in approximation theory, is shown to have many potential uses in modern data analysis, including applications in machine learning. This is the first book to offer a rapid introduction to the subject, illustrating the surprising effectiveness of a simple tool. Bridging the gap between classical mathematics and current evolving research, the authors present the topic in detail and follow a heuristic, example-based approach, assuming only a basic background in functional analysis, probability and some elementary notions of algebraic geometry. They cover new results in both pure and applied mathematics and introduce techniques that have a wide range of potential impacts on modern quantitative and qualitative science. Comprehensive notes provide historical background, discuss advanced concepts and give detailed bibliographical references. Researchers and graduate students in mathematics, statistics, engineering or economics will find new perspectives on traditional themes, along with challenging open problems.

Provides a range of up-to-date case studies to help students understand the real world practice of risk management in organisations Includes an overview situating the subject of risk management in the wider context of corporate governance, aiding student understanding The case studies on Tesco and Birmingham City Council are radically updated to reflect recent controversies, whilst a case study on cyber risk is added for the new edition

If you have ever had the opportunity to observe a master craftsperson at work, one of the first things you will notice is how easy they make their work look. This principle applies to artists, athletes, plumbers and painters. It also applies to teachers. If you were fortunate enough to have some master teachers in your K to 12 schooling or for your university student teaching, you will have seen this principle at work. You will recall how easy they made teaching look. For the most part, their classes just flowed. The teacher would ask the students to do something, and the students did it. The teacher would cue the kids to transition into a new activity, and the kids transitioned. There was little conflict, few arguments, and the vast majority of classroom time was spent engaged in learning. It is a pleasure to observe these kinds of behaviors in the classrooms of master teachers, but this leaves us with an important question: how do they do it? Just how did these teachers get their students to be so cooperative and have their classroom running so smoothly? That is what THE SUCCESSFUL TEACHER'S SURVIVAL KIT: 83 simple things that successful teachers do to thrive in the classroom will show you - the kinds of things that master teachers do to make their classes work - both for themselves and for their students. You too can become a master teacher. This book will show you how.

Extensively updated for the second edition, this handy guide covers the safety engineering of ship-shaped offshore installations at every stage of design, construction, operation, lifetime healthcare and decommissioning. New sections cover additional types of offshore structures, including offshore power plants, as well as cutting-edge technologies and all the latest advances in the field. The text focuses on minimising accidents and the effects of extreme conditions, with new chapters covering earthquakes, hurricanes and terrorist attacks, as well as traditional types of accidental events such as hull girder collapse, collisions, fires and explosions. This is an invaluable resource for students who will be approaching the subject for the first time as well as practising engineers and researchers.

If a major event such as a terrorist attack, 7.2 earthquake, tsunami, or hacker attack were to disrupt business operations, would your organization be prepared to respond to the financial, political, and social impacts? In order for your company to be resilient, it must be ready to respond and recover quickly from the impact of such events. Business continuity is the discipline that can help your organization become truly resilient. Business Continuity Planning: A Project Management Approach explains how to deploy project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness methods in a manner that will ensure organizational resiliency. With an emphasis on building business preparedness plans, it covers the fundamental principles of project management, risk management, business continuity, and business preparedness. Upon reading this book, you will learn how to apply project management to institute business continuity governance and to build and maintain business preparedness plans. You will also learn what's required to conduct an effective business impact analysis. Detailing a proven plan for achieving business continuity and business preparedness, the book includes numerous diagrams, checklists, and tools to help you determine exactly what you must do to prepare for a serious event. It also explains how to test your continuity plans and evaluate preparedness processes to ensure your organization will be truly prepared to withstand or recover from the next emergency, disaster, or catastrophic event to affect your organization.

An original approach to the identification of fallacies focusing on their relationship to human self deception, mental trickery, and manipulation. Introduces the concept of fallacies and details 44 foul ways to win an argument.

Apart from its foray into technical issues of risk assessment and management, this book has one principal aim. With situations of chancy outcomes certain key factors-including outcome possibilities, overall expectation, threat, and even luck-are measurable parameters. But risk is something different: it is not measurable a single parametric quantity, but a many-sided factor that has several different components, and constitutes a complex phenomenon that must be assessed judgmentally in a highly contextualized way. This book explains and analyzes how this works out in practice. Topics in this work include choice and risk, chance and likelihood, as well as outcome-yield evaluation and risk. It takes into account abnormal situations and eccentric measurements, situational evaluation and expectation and scrutinizes the social aspect of risk. The book is of interest to logicians, philosophers of mathematics, and researchers of risk assessment. The project is a companion piece to the author's LUCK THEORY, also published by Springer.

Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.

Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems.
Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms
* Includes extensive use of case studies
* Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials
* No comparable texts available
Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.

The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.

Teachers stand at the intersection of educational goals, directing students down the road to success or to the byways of diminished opportunities. They are the most important school variable effecting student achievement. Consequently, placing and retaining only qualified and effective teachers in our nation's classrooms is a critical responsibility of school leaders. Effective supervision and evaluation requires that the school leader possess the knowledge of effective instruction, exhibit skills in documentation of professional conduct, and embrace a professional approach with the will to place and keep students at the center of school policy and practice decisions. Supervising and evaluating teachers is a difficult, but essential work. Research shows that time and expertise are necessary to effectively supervise and to build a case for adverse employment decisions, when necessary. Threading the Evaluation Needle: The Documentation of Teacher Unprofessional Conduct addresses the legal and professional knowledge that structures discipline and dismissal in the public schools. The authors, based on their educational, legal, and research experience, provide templates for various types of documentation necessary to effectively build a case for discipline. This book seeks to give principals the tools and knowledge to institute in good faith a fair and accurate documentation system.

Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies.

Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.

Aware that a single crisis event can devastate their business, managers must be prepared for the worst from an expansive array of threats. The Routledge Companion to Risk, Crisis and Security in Business comprises a professional and scholarly collection of work in this critical field. Risks come in many varieties, and there is a growing concern for organizations to respond to the challenge. Businesses can be severely impacted by natural and man-made disasters including: floods, earthquakes, tsunami, environmental threats, terrorism, supply chain risks, pandemics, and white-collar crime. An organization's resilience is dependent not only on their own system security and infrastructure, but also on the wider infrastructure providing health and safety, utilities, transportation, and communication. Developments in risk security and management knowledge offer a path towards resilience and recovery through effective leadership in crisis situations. The growing body of knowledge in research and methodologies is a basis for decisions to safeguard people and assets, and to ensure the survivability of an organization from a crisis. Not only can businesses become more secure through risk management, but an effective program can also facilitate innovation and afford new opportunities. With chapters written by an international selection of leading experts, this book fills a crucial gap in our current knowledge of risk, crisis and security in business by exploring a broad spectrum of topics in the field. Edited by a globally-recognized expert on risk, this book is a vital reference for researchers, professionals and students with an interest in current scholarship in this expanding discipline.

Eine Ausbildung zum Beruf ist meist die Grundvoraussetzung fur eine erfolgreiche Berufsbiografie. Fur Jugendliche werden jedoch auch oft Ausbildungsangebote geschaffen, die sich zwar an Berufskriterien orientieren, jedoch nicht immer zu gesellschaftlich anerkannten Berufsabschlussen fuhren. Unter anderem werden zeitlich verkurzte Formen der Berufsausbildung entwickelt, um bestimmten Zielgruppen den Berufseinstieg zu erleichtern oder Beschaftigungsfelder mit geringeren Qualifikationsanforderungen zu erschliessen. Der Band stellt empirische Untersuchungen und theoretische Diskussionen aus Deutschland, OEsterreich und der Schweiz zu verkurzten Berufsausbildungen vor, um Wirkungen und Effekte der Konzeptionen zu erschliessen und zu bewerten. Die Buchbeitrage gehen insbesondere der Frage nach, welche Formen der Berufsausbildung als Ausbildung zum Beruf angesehen werden koennen.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Group Decision and Negotiation, GDN 2021, which was planned to be held in Toronto, ON, Canada, during June 6-10, 2021. The conference was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The field of Group Decision and Negotiation focuses on decision processes with at least two participants and a common goal but conflicting individual goals. Research areas of Group Decision and Negotiation include electronic negotiations, experiments, the role of emotions in group decision and negotiations, preference elicitation and decision support for group decisions and negotiations, and conflict resolution principles. The 12 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 74 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: pandemic responses; preference modeling for group decision and negotiation; conflict resolution; and collaborative decision making processes.