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Books > Reference & Interdisciplinary > Communication studies > Decision theory
RAMP is a structured process for evaluating and controlling risk in
major projects and this practical, working handbook is for everyone
involved in the financial, commercial, legal or engineering aspects
of a project. Providing a framework for identifying, analysing and
responding to risks and then placing a financial value on them, the
RAMP process covers the whole life of the asset involved, including
post-completion reviews and methods for controlling any risks that
remain, to increase the chances of overall project success. It can
be applied to `hard' projects involving construction of physical
assets or `soft' projects involving business acquisitions or the
launch of a new product.
This textbook presents key theoretical approaches to understanding
issues of sustainability and environmental management, perfectly
bridging the gap between engineering and environmental science. It
begins with the fundamentals of environmental modelling and
toxicology, which are then used to discuss qualitative and
quantitative risk assessment methods, and environmental assessments
of product design. It discusses how business and government can
work towards sustainability, focusing on managerial and legal
tools, before considering ethics and how decisions on environmental
management can be made. Students will learn quantitative methods
while also gaining an understanding of qualitative, legal, and
ethical aspects of sustainability. Practical applications are
included throughout, and there are study questions at the end of
each chapter. PowerPoint slides and jpegs of all the figures in the
book are provided online. This is the perfect textbook on
environmental studies for engineering and applied science students.
In Zeiten der Wissensgesellschaft, der Globalisierung und der damit
verbundenen internationalen vergleichenden Studien nimmt die
Untersuchung Bezug auf die Frage nach der Konkurrenzfahigkeit der
Modernisierung des Systems Schule der letzten Jahre. Im Mittelpunkt
der aktuellen Reformbestrebungen steht der Schuler. Vernachlassigt
wird trotz der Pluralitat der erziehungswissenschaftlichen Theorien
die Frage nach einer angemessenen Qualifikation der primaren,
praktischen Agenten des Reformprozesses. Stehen die theoretischen
Anspruche an eine adaquate, ideale Lehrerprofessionalitat im
Widerspruch zum demografischen Alterungsprozess unserer
Gesellschaft und somit der Lehrerkollegien? Am Beispiel der
Bildungsreform des Bundeslandes Baden-Wurttemberg wurde nach
Richtungsweisungen fur diese scheinbare Dichotomie mit der Absicht
der qualitatssichernden Optimierung und gesundheitsfoerdernden
Balancierung der Anforderungen und Herausforderungen des
schulischen Umfeldes und den subjektiv-personellen Potenzen der
Lehrer gesucht.
Amazingly, the complexities of voting theory can be explained and resolved with comfortable geometry. A geometry which unifies such seemingly disparate topics as manipulation, monotonicity, and even the apportionment issues of the US Supreme Court. Although directed mainly toward students and others wishing to learn about voting, experts will discover here many previously unpublished results. As an example, a new profile decomposition quickly resolves the age-old controversies of Condorcet and Borda, demonstrates that the rankings of pairwise and other methods differ because they rely on different information, casts serious doubt on the reliability of a Condorcet winner as a standard for the field, makes the famous Arrow's Theorem predictable, and simplifies the construction of examples.
Actuaries have access to a wealth of individual data in pension and
insurance portfolios, but rarely use its full potential. This book
will pave the way, from methods using aggregate counts to modern
developments in survival analysis. Based on the fundamental concept
of the hazard rate, Part I shows how and why to build statistical
models, based on data at the level of the individual persons in a
pension scheme or life insurance portfolio. Extensive use is made
of the R statistics package. Smooth models, including regression
and spline models in one and two dimensions, are covered in depth
in Part II. Finally, Part III uses multiple-state models to extend
survival models beyond the simple life/death setting, and includes
a brief introduction to the modern counting process approach.
Practising actuaries will find this book indispensable, and
students will find it helpful when preparing for their professional
examinations.
1. Fully aligned to the NEBOSH International Certificate in Health
and Safety (IGC) 2019 syllabus 2. An authoritative and helpful
study guide for the c.30,000 students a year worldwide pursuing the
IGC qualification 3. Written by renowned health and safety expert
and former NEBOSH Vice Chairman Dr Ed Ferrett 4. Accessible text
design, clearly mapping out key learning outcomes and revision
points for easy learning and memorization 5. Companion guide to the
4th edition of the renowned International Health and Safety at Work
textbook
This innovative textbook makes the tools and applications of game
theory and strategic reasoning both fascinating and easy to
understand. Each chapter focuses a specific strategic situation as
a way of introducing core concepts informally at first, then more
fully, with a minimum of mathematics. At the heart of the book is a
diverse collection of strategic scenarios, not only from business
and politics, but from history, fiction, sports, and everyday life
as well. With this approach, students don't just learn clever
answers to puzzles, but instead acquire genuine insights into human
behaviour. Written for major courses in economics, business,
political science, and international relations, this textbook is
accessible to students across the undergraduate spectrum.
Schulen haben seit Jahren neue Freiheiten der Schulentwicklung.
Diese Forschungsarbeit betrachtet dabei die Rolle der Schulleiter
und geht der Frage nach, wie Schulen in Deutschland, OEsterreich
und der Schweiz diese Freiheiten in der Berufsorientierung und im
UEbergangsmanagement von der Schule zum Beruf empfinden und nutzen.
Mit einem Methodenmix werden Good-Practice-Schulen in der
internationalen Bodenseeregion identifiziert. Die Sichtweisen der
entsprechenden Schulleiter und Experten der Schulentwicklung wurden
in Leitfadeninterviews erhoben und analysiert. In diesem Beitrag
zur UEbergangs-, Schulleiter- und Regionalforschung werden
unterschiedliche Schulleitertypen herausgearbeitet und daraus ein
heuristisches Modell sowie praxisrelevante und bildungspolitische
Empfehlungen abgeleitet.
A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death
and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and
plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided
ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or
a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind.
It could happen again.
In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest
risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid
impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes,
nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons,
totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial
intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses
over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting
and managing catastrophes.
This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues
of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology,
and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and
professionals working in these acutely important fields.
In Being Rational and Being Right, Juan Comesana argues for a
cluster of theses related to the rationality of action and belief.
His starting point is that rational action requires rational belief
but tolerates false belief. From there, Comesana provides a novel
account of empirical evidence according to which said evidence
consists of the content of undefeated experiences. This view, which
Comesana calls Experientialism, differs from the two main views of
empirical evidence on offer nowadays: Factualism, according to
which our evidence is what we know, and Psychologism, according to
which our experiences themselves are evidence. He reasons that
Experientialism fares better than these rival views in explaining
different features of rational belief and action. Comesana embeds
this discussion in a Bayesian framework, and discusses in addition
the problem of normative requirements, the easy knowledge problem,
and how Experientialism compares to forms of evidentialism and
reliabilism.
We find risks everywhere-from genetically modified crops, medical
malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators,
identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own
acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction,
Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and
humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using
simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural
research, they examine the science and practice of creating
measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining
historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert
judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been
learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks,
applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how
understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public
policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other
topics. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from
Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every
subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get
ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts,
analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make
interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Die Jahre 2005 bis 2014 wurden durch die UN-Vollversammlung zur
Weltdekade Bildung fur nachhaltige Entwicklung ausgerufen. Dabei
ist das theoretische Fundament vielen Bildungsakteuren nur
unzureichend bekannt. Dies - so die zentrale These dieser Arbeit -
hat seine Ursache im mangelnden nachhaltigkeitstheoretischen Bezug
der Bildung fur nachhaltige Entwicklung. Die Arbeit bietet diesen
theoretischen Rahmen. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage nach den
Werten in der Natur. Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage wird ein
differenzierter Blick auf die Phanomenbereiche der Werte und der
Natur genommen, um aus dieser Perspektive die beiden
konkurrierenden Konzepte der starken und schwachen Nachhaltigkeit
zu reflektieren.
Seit der Einfuhrung des Europaischen Portfolios der Sprachen (EPS)
im Jahr 2001 ist dem Portfolio ein starkes Potenzial zur
Veranderung der Lernkultur im Fremdsprachenunterricht zugeschrieben
worden. Die quantitative empirische Studie untersucht die
Wirksamkeit der Portfolioimplementierung sowie das
Modifikationspotenzial des EPS aus der Sicht von Lehrkraften. Der
niedersachsische Modellversuch zur Einfuhrung des EPS wird
evaluiert und die Untersuchungsergebnisse zur Bildung eines Modells
fur die Implementierung herangezogen. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass
das Innovationspotenzial des EPS nur wirken kann, wenn Lehrkrafte
Veranderungen auf den Ebenen der Organisation sowie der Lern- und
Gesprachskultur vornehmen.
Financial markets respond to information virtually
instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the
prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the
system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This
fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the
challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential
inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative
pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In
Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert
Engle introduces an important new method for estimating
correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional
Correlation (DCC).
Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial
decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and
theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other
measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation
estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing,
and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important
applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and
illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model.
He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models
with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and
illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle
shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or
CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how
the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks.
A technical chapter of econometric results also is included.
Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures,
"Anticipating Correlations" puts powerful new forecasting tools
into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers,
derivative quants, and graduate students.
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