The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously published research in the field determines that such large-scale military failures often stem from defective information-processing systems. Intelligence Success and Failure challenges this common assertion that catastrophic surprise attacks are the unmistakable products of warning failure alone. Further, Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott approach this topic uniquely by highlighting the successful cases of strategic surprise, as well as the failures, from a psychological perspective. This book delineates the critical role of individual psychopathologies in precipitating failure by investigating important historical cases. Bar-Joseph and McDermott use six particular military attacks as examples for their analysis, including: "Barbarossa," the June 1941 German invasion of the USSR (failure); the fall-winter 1941 battle for Moscow (success); the Arab attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973 (failure); and the second Egyptian offensive in the war six days later (success). From these specific cases and others, they analyze the psychological mechanisms through which leaders assess their own fatal mistakes and use the intelligence available to them. Their research examines the factors that contribute to failure and success in responding to strategic surprise and identify the learning process that central decision makers use to facilitate subsequent successes. Intelligence Success and Failure presents a new theory in the study of strategic surprise that claims the key explanation for warning failure is not unintentional action, but rather, motivated biases in key intelligence and central leaders that null any sense of doubt prior to surprise attacks.

In attempting to analyze the role of luck in war, a rather narrow definition of luck is necessary. The conventional dictionary definitions of luck are "a force that brings good fortune or adversity" and "the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual." Those definitions are so broad that they would appear to cover many, perhaps most, events in war. There is in literature an old expression, deus ex machina, a translation into Latin of the original Greek thēos ek mechanēs. While it literally translates as "a god from a machine," its meaning is a person or thing that appears or is introduced suddenly and unexpectedly and provides a contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty. In the book a similar but probably unique concept, felix ex machina, will be used to denote certain extreme instances of luck which was relatively sudden, completely unexpected with dramatic consequences, good or bad, in war.

The adaptation of the 1990 CFE Treaty and the Vienna Document 1994 of the Negotiations on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures were both completed by the November 1999 OSCE Istanbul summit meeting. In the 21st century, Europe will continue to elaborate further co-operative security arrangements to better respond to new risks and challenges in the field of security and help create stability in areas of tension and conflict. The aim is two-fold: to strengthen the pan-European process of building confidence and security; and to develop measures and arms control-related arrangements below the continental level - at the regional and subregional levels. This research report examines the record of CSBMs in Europe, as well as regional arms control efforts in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. It contains important reference material on military security endeavours of this type.

An analysis that takes the complexity of British defence policy apart to view its anatomy and show how policy is made in this area. British defence policy is in a phase of great transition as the country confronts its Brexit future and also as world politics becomes more threatening and potentially unstable. This book uses the most up to date information to examine in a concise and readable way all the elements that go to make up Britain's defence policy as it goes through the most significant transition since the end of the Cold War in 1991. By analysing the costs of defence, the equipment issues, the personnel, the technical and intelligence back-up for it, and the strategies to employ military forces, this book offers a brief but rich guide to understanding an area of policy that many people find baffling. -- .

This book describes the logistical systems and requirements of the North Korean People's Army and Chinese Communist forces during the Korean War. The author examines the performance of the Communist logistical system from June 1950 to July 1953, explaining the failure of the United Nations air interdiction campaign in terms of the constant improvement of Communist logistical capabilities. The author concludes that the United Nations air force damaged, but was unable to destroy, the Communist distribution system. The North Koreans and Chinese Communists were able to supply their front line units sufficiently to enable them to conduct a strong static defense, which prevented a United Nations victory, and in the last months of the war, to mount strong, sustained offensive actions.

An Economist Best Book of 2021 Artificial Intelligence is going to war. Intelligent military systems are already reshaping conflict-from the chaos of battle, with pilotless drones and robot tanks, to the headquarters far from the action, where generals and politicians use technology to weigh up what to do. AI changes how we fight, and even how likely it is that we will. Warbots will be faster, more agile and more deadly than today's crewed weapons. New tactics are already emerging, but much deeper thinking is needed. When will an intelligent machine escalate, and how might you deter it? Can robots predict the future? And what happens to the 'art of war' as machines become creative? An international campaign against 'killer robots' hopes to ban AI from conflict. But the genie is out-autonomous weapons are too useful for states to outlaw. Still, crafting sensible rules for our warbots is possible. This fascinating book shows how it might be done.

How did German intelligence agents in the First World War use dead fish to pass on vital information to their operatives? What did an advertisement for a dog in The Times have to do with the movement of British troops into Egypt? And why did British personnel become suspicious about the trousers hanging on a Belgian woman's washing line? During the First World War, spymasters and their networks of secret agents developed many ingenious - and occasionally hilarious - methods of communication. Puffs of smoke from a chimney, stacks of bread in a bakery window, even knitted woollen jumpers were all used to convey secret messages decipherable only by well-trained eyes. Melanie King retells the astonishing story of these and many other tricks of the espionage trade, now long forgotten, through the memoirs of eight spies. Among them are British intelligence officers working undercover in France and Germany, including a former officer from the Metropolitan Police who once hunted Jack the Ripper. There is also the German Secret Service officer, codenamed Agricola, who spied on the Eastern Front, an American newspaperman and an Austrian agent who disguised himself as everything from a Jewish pedlar to a Russian officer. Drawing on the words of many of the spies themselves, Secrets in a Dead Fish is a fascinating compendium of clever and original ruses that casts new light into the murky world of espionage during the First World War.

War, nuclear weapons, and terrorism are all major threats to US security, but a new set of emerging threats are challenging the current threat response apparatus and our ability to come up with creative and effective solutions. This book considers new, 'non-traditional' security issues such as: transnational organized crime, immigration and border security, cybersecurity, countering violent extremism and terrorism, environmental and energy security, as well as the rise of external actors. The work examines the major challenges and trends in security and explores the policy responses of the U.S. government. By using international relations theory as an analytical approach, Fonseca and Rosen present how these security threats have evolved over time.

Khe Sanh remains to this day, an extremely controversial and emotional aspect of the war in Vietnam. The U.S. Armed Forces fought to defend Khe Sanh in early 1968 and then abandoned the base after a 77-day siege by the North Vietnamese. This book contains fromerly Top Secret messages to President Lyndon Johnson from National Security Advisor W.W. "Walt" Rostow, Gen. William Westmoreland and many others. The siege and loss of Khe Sanh is the tragedy of the war in Vietnam in microcosm.

This edited volume focuses on the South Atlantic regional and national issues with maritime implications: naval policy, security, transnational organized crime, and Europe's legacy and current influence. The work analyzes the positions in favor and against NATO's extended role in the South Atlantic, the historical and current issues related to the Falklands War, the African national deficits, and initiatives to attend the regional maritime problems. Including contributions from Angolan, Brazilian, Senegalese, and US collaborators, the volume offers eclectic conceptual frameworks, rich historical backgrounds, updated data, original analysis models, and policy recommendations.

Strategy is not a modern invention. It is an essential and enduring feature of human history that is here to stay. In this original essay, Colin S. Gray, world-renowned scholar of strategic thought, discusses the meaning of strategy and its importance for politicians and the military as a means of achieving desired outcomes in complex, uncertain conditions. Drawing on a wide range of examples from the Great Peloponnesian War to the Second World War, Vietnam, and the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, Gray ably shows how great military thinkers of the past and present have acted strategically in their various ideological, political, geographical and cultural contexts. Looking to the future, he argues that strategy will continue to provide a vital tool-kit for survival and security, but that the global threat posed by nuclear weapons remains an on-going challenge without obvious practical solutions. As Gray boldy asserts, there is no promised land ahead, only hard and dangerous times that will require us to master the theory and practice of strategy to secure our own future.

In recent times, international society has countered a myriad of 'outlaw' threats at sea, including piracy, terrorism, the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and the threat posed by 'rogue states'. Whilst the US has promoted 'coalitions of the willing' and sought to transform international maritime law in response to these 'outlaws', Japanese governments have developed an innovative maritime security strategy centering on the Japan Coast Guard (JCG). Concerned by Japan's international image as a former imperialist power, Tokyo has relied upon the identity of the JCG as a law enforcement and rescue organization to garner support for its maritime security strategy. Japan's non-military efforts have developed the capacities of states and built institutions in the Southeast Asian region and beyond. The JCG's response to maritime 'outlaws' belies characterizations of Japan as a passive state that does not contribute to international order.

In the modern world, natural disasters are becoming more commonplace, unmanned systems are becoming the norm, and terrorism and espionage are increasingly taking place online. All of these threats have made it necessary for governments and organizations to steel themselves against these threats in innovative ways. Developing Next-Generation Countermeasures for Homeland Security Threat Prevention provides relevant theoretical frameworks and empirical research outlining potential threats while exploring their appropriate countermeasures. This relevant publication takes a broad perspective, from network security, surveillance, reconnaissance, and physical security, all topics are considered with equal weight. Ideal for policy makers, IT professionals, engineers, NGO operators, and graduate students, this book provides an in-depth look into the threats facing modern society and the methods to avoid them.

The first study to examine psychological warfare in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, this book presents a rational analysis of the Arab and Israeli struggles to gain the world's sympathy and support, tracing these struggles from the British Mandate to the more recent HAMAS abduction of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.

When is it right to go to war? The most persuasive answer to this question has always been 'in self-defense'. In a penetrating new analysis, bringing together moral philosophy, political science, and law, David Rodin shows what's wrong with this answer. He proposes a comprehensive new theory of the right of self-defense which resolves many of the perplexing questions that have dogged both jurists and philosophers.

This book provides a detailed analysis of the complicated relations between Iran and its Arab neighbours. Arab perceptions of Iran, its regional policies and role in the Arab region, have never been more complicated than today. How is one to make sense of the increasingly complex and at times tense relationship between Iran and its Arab neighbours? Given the strategic significance of this sub-region and the importance of relations between its states to international security, this edited volume systematically accounts for each Arab neighbour's perception, policies and approach towards the Islamic republic, for the first time providing a clear and detailed comparative analysis of these relationships. This book, bringing together a group of leading scholars of the region, not only provides a clear lens for the policy community through which to gauge the causes of change and the reasons for continuity in relations, but also offers an invaluable tool for scholars of the wider region and the growing community of researchers focusing on this sub-region.

This study analyses the reasons for and the broad implications of the post-cold war reforms of arms and dual-use export controls within the European Union. It conceptualizes the arms export policy process as a policy system, involving the interaction of three basic elements-the policy environment, policy stakeholders and public policies. Three national case studies (the UK, Germany and Sweden) explore the major problems and paradoxes of practical regulatory activity.

A global account of military strategy, which examines the practices, rather than the theories, of the most significant military figures of the past 400 years   Strategy has existed as long as there has been organised conflict. In this ground-breaking account, Jeremy Black explores the ever-changing relationship between purpose, force, implementation and effectiveness in military strategy and its dramatic impact on the development of the global power system.   Taking a “total� view of strategy, Black looks at leading powers—notably the United States, China, Britain, and Russia—in the wider context of their competition and their domestic and international strengths. Ranging from France’s ancien régime and Britain’s empire building to present-day conflicts in the Middle East, Black devotes particular attention to the strategic practice and decisions of the Kangxi Emperor, Clausewitz, Napoleon, and Hitler.

'Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.' The courageous pilots of the Royal Air Force who faced the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain, affectionately known as 'the Few', are rightly hailed as heroes. Recently, efforts have been made to recognise the thousands who supported RAF operations behind the scenes. And yet one group remains missing from the narrative: the Women's Auxiliary Air Force. The Women Behind the Few explores the Second World War from the perspective of the WAAFs working behind the scenes to collect and disseminate vital intelligence - intelligence that resulted in Allied victory. WAAFs worked within the Dowding System, the world's most sophisticated air defence network, as well as in the Y Service, intercepting German communications. Throughout the Blitz, they used radar to aid Fighter and Bomber Commands in protecting Britain's civilians. WAAFs also assisted with the Allied offensive bombing campaign and were behind the discovery of the terrifying German V-weapons. Their work was critical ahead of the Normandy landings and they were present in their hundreds at Bletchley Park. In this thrilling book, Sarah-Louise Miller brings the women of the force back to life, celebrating their wartime contribution to British military intelligence. Hidden behind the Few but vital to their success, WAAFs supplied the RAF with life-saving information. Here, for the first time, is their story.

This collection of essays comprises a series of think-pieces about the security challenges of the present, both in the realm of cyberspace and otherwise, with a particular consideration of the promise and possible negative effects of new digital technologies. French military academy instructor Gerard de Boisboissel considers the contemporary digital transformation of his country's military and proposes ways to ensure its maximum effectiveness. Retired American senior intelligence officer Leslie Gruis takes the long historical view, examining parallels between the effects of the current technological revolution and the transformation wrought by the invention of the printing press. Columbia University research scholar Michael Klipstein and coauthor Peter Chuzie analyze the potential offered for intelligence collection by the Internet of Things. And British academic Craig Stanley-Adamson explores the lessons that may be drawn from the relationship between Israel and its neighbors in the first decade post 9/11, arguing that it was characterized by a surprising degree of cooperation in the security realm that may, given auspicious circumstances, be repeated in the future.

Military transformation can be understood as comprising three overlapping and sometimes competing "layers"--the conventional-force dominated revolution in military affairs, a more recent irregular warfare emphasis, and a wider dimension including homeland defense, space and nuclear policy. The Western world is currently focusing its attention on transformation's middle layer, while China and Russia are focusing on the RMA and transformation's wider aspects. This dynamic indicates the United States and its allies should continue to prepare for the full range of conflicts. This book establishes the meaning of "military transformation," assesses the manner in which certain countries are transforming their military forces, discusses the relevancy of transformation efforts to modern conflict and, in drawing out the key areas of emphasis on the part of various countries, provides a window on the future global security environment. It is divided into seven chapters, plus a conclusion. The first chapter focuses on the meaning of military transformation, establishing a framework through which national militaries can be examined. This comprises transformation's revolution in military affairs components, its newer special operations forces, counterinsurgency, and stabilization and reconstruction aspects, and its wider homeland defense, space and deterrence dimensions. The book devotes two chapters to the United States and one each to China, Russia, and NATO. It also has a chapter that looks individually at each of Australia, Britain, Canada, France and Germany. An assessment of the relevancy of force transformation to modern warfare is integrated into the discussion of what transformation means, how the United States is responding, and the concluding chapter. The book contains a biographical sketch of Andrew Marshall, Andrew Krepinevich, William Owens, Arthur Cebrowski, Donald Rumsfeld, and Thomas Barnett, all of whom have been involved in some aspect of military transformation.

In Supreme emergency, an ex-Trident submarine captain considers the evolution of UK nuclear deterrence policy and the implications of a previously unacknowledged aversion to military strategies that threaten civilian casualties. Drawing on extensive archival research, the book provides a unique synthesis of the factors affecting British nuclear policy decision-making and draws parallels between government debates about reprisals for First World War zeppelin raids on London, the strategic bombing raids of the Second World War and the evolution of the UK nuclear deterrent. It concludes that among all the technical factors, an aversion to being seen to condone civilian casualties has inhibited government engagement with the public on deterrence strategy since 1915. -- .