This book provides a frequentist semantics for conditionalization on partially known events, which is given as a straightforward generalization of classical conditional probability via so-called probability testbeds. It analyzes the resulting partial conditionalization, called frequentist partial (F.P.) conditionalization, from different angles, i.e., with respect to partitions, segmentation, independence, and chaining. It turns out that F.P. conditionalization meets and generalizes Jeffrey conditionalization, i.e., from partitions to arbitrary collections of events, opening it for reassessment and a range of potential applications. A counterpart of Jeffrey's rule for the case of independence holds in our frequentist semantics. This result is compared to Jeffrey's commutative chaining of independent updates. The postulate of Jeffrey's probability kinematics, which is rooted in the subjectivism of Frank P. Ramsey, is found to be a consequence in our frequentist semantics. This way the book creates a link between the Kolmogorov system of probability and one of the important Bayesian frameworks. Furthermore, it shows a preservation result for conditional probabilities under the full update range and compares F.P. semantics with an operational semantics of classical conditional probability in terms of so-called conditional events. Lastly, it looks at the subjectivist notion of desirabilities and proposes a more fine-grained analysis of desirabilities a posteriori. This book appeals to researchers who are involved in any kind of knowledge processing systems. F.P. conditionalization is a straightforward, fundamental concept that fits human intuition, and is systematically linked to one of the important Bayesian frameworks. As such, the book is interesting for anybody investigating the semantics of reasoning systems.

Thinking, Reasoning, and Decision Making in Autism provides fresh insights into the cognitive processes that underlie some of the typical characteristics of autism. Autism has long been considered an enigma, and no single theory so far has been able to explain, or even fully describe, the key characteristics of the autistic mind. From the interdisciplinary perspective of new research in cognitive psychology, linguistics, philosophy, and neuroscience, this book explores thinking, reasoning, and decision making in autism. The new cognitive approaches challenge some of the existing assumptions of the nature of thought in autism, including presumed areas of impairments. Instead, this book focuses on the nuanced array of cognitive signatures that characterize the autistic mind, and in many cases it reveals the possibility of intact performance alongside instances of remarkably enhanced thinking. The book considers the implications of these characteristics, providing in-depth analyses of specific areas of cognitive functioning, and their everyday manifestations. Featuring contributions from world-leading researchers from the fields of cognitive science and autism research, this volume will be essential reading for advanced students and researchers, as well as those working with individuals with autism spectrum disorders.

Thinking, Reasoning, and Decision Making in Autism provides fresh insights into the cognitive processes that underlie some of the typical characteristics of autism. Autism has long been considered an enigma, and no single theory so far has been able to explain, or even fully describe, the key characteristics of the autistic mind. From the interdisciplinary perspective of new research in cognitive psychology, linguistics, philosophy, and neuroscience, this book explores thinking, reasoning, and decision making in autism. The new cognitive approaches challenge some of the existing assumptions of the nature of thought in autism, including presumed areas of impairments. Instead, this book focuses on the nuanced array of cognitive signatures that characterize the autistic mind, and in many cases it reveals the possibility of intact performance alongside instances of remarkably enhanced thinking. The book considers the implications of these characteristics, providing in-depth analyses of specific areas of cognitive functioning, and their everyday manifestations. Featuring contributions from world-leading researchers from the fields of cognitive science and autism research, this volume will be essential reading for advanced students and researchers, as well as those working with individuals with autism spectrum disorders.

Addressing the problems surrounding cyber security and cyberspace, this book bridges the gap between the technical and political worlds to increase our understanding of this major security concern in our IT-dependent society, and the risks it presents. Only by establishing a sound technical understanding of what is and is not possible can a properly informed discussion take place, and political visions toward cyberspace accurately map and predict the future of cyber security. Combining research from the technical world that creates cyberspace with that of the political world, which seeks to understand the consequences and uses of cyberspace, Steed analyses and explains the circumstances that have led to current situations whereby IT-dependent societies are vulnerable to, and regularly victims of, hacking, terrorism, espionage, and cyberwar. Two fundamental questions are considered throughout the book: what circumstances led to this state of affairs? And what solutions exist for the future of cyberspace? In tackling these questions, Steed also analyses the emergent and increasingly competing political positions on offer to stabilise the landscape of cyberspace. This interdisciplinary work will appeal to researchers and students of Security Studies, Intelligence Studies, Strategic Studies and International Relations as well as cybersecurity practitioners charged with developing policy options.

Exercise your imagination and set off sparks of genius. Explore the "thinking tools" of extraordinary people, from Albert Einstein and Jane Goodall to Amadeus Mozart and Virginia Woolf, and learn how you can practice the same imaginative skills to become your creative best. With engaging narratives and ample illustrations, Robert and Michele Root-Bernstein investigate cognitive tools as diverse as observing, imaging, recognizing patterns, modeling, playing, and more. SPARKS OF GENIUS is "a clever, detailed and demanding fitness program for the creative mind" (Kirkus Reviews) and a groundbreaking guidebook for anyone interested in imaginative thinking, lifelong learning, and transdisciplinary education.

This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.

Why do we behave as we do? Can we improve? Is our ethics at war with our passions, or is it an upshot of those passions? In this compelling new account of human reason and morality, Simon Blackburn seeks the answers to such questions by exploring the nature of moral emotions and the structures of human motivation. His theory is naturalistic: it integrates our understanding of ethics with the rest of our understanding of the world we live in. But he does not debunk the ethical by reducing it to the non-ethical, and he banishes the spectres of scepticism and relativism that have haunted recent moral philosophy. Ruling Passions reveals how ethics can maintain its authority even though it is rooted in the very emotions and motivations that it exists to control.

This book explores the two major elements of Hintikka's model of inquiry: underlying game theoretical motivations and the central role of questioning. The chapters build on the Hintikkan tradition extending Hintikka's model and present a wide variety of approaches to the philosophy of inquiry from different directions, ranging from erotetic logic to Lakatosian philosophy, from socio-epistemologic approaches to strategic reasoning and mathematical practice. Hintikka's theory of inquiry is a well-known example of a dynamic epistemic procedure. In an interrogative inquiry, the inquirer is given a theory and a question. He then tries to answer the question based on the theory by posing questions to nature or an oracle. The initial formulation of this procedure by Hintikka is rather broad and informal. This volume introduces a carefully selected responses to the issues discussed by Hintikka. The articles in the volume were contributed by various authors associated with a research project on Hintikka's interrogative theory of inquiry conducted in the Institut d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences et des Techniques (IHPST) of Paris, including those who visited to share their insight.

This volume presents a selection of papers reflecting key theoretical issues in argumentation theory. Its six sections are devoted to specific themes, including the analysis and evaluation of argumentation, argument schemes and the contextual embedding of argumentation. The section on general perspectives on argumentation discusses the trends of empiricalization, contextualization and formalization, offers descriptions of the analytical and evaluative tools of informal logic, and highlights selected principles that argumentation theorists do and do not agree upon. In turn, the section on linguistic approaches to argumentation focuses on the problem of distinguishing between explanation and argument, while also elaborating on the role of verbal indicators of argument schemes. All essays included in this volume point out notable recent developments in the study of argumentation.

The Intelligent Mind conceives the psychological reality of thought and language, explaining how intelligence develops from intuition to representation and then to linguistic interaction and thinking. Overcoming the prevailing dogmas regarding how discursive reason emerges, this book secures the psychological possibility of the philosophy of mind.

What effect does creativity have on individuals, groups and societies, and on the fundamental values on which they base their actions and institutions? What constitutes good and evil, right and wrong, and how does creativity disrupt these beliefs? 'The Ethics of Creativity' brings together an impressive collaboration of thinkers from several countries and disciplines to illuminate the thorny issues that arise when novel ideas and products brought forth by creativity collide with the rules and norms of what we believe to be right or good.

Numerous functions, cognitive skills, and behaviors are associated with intelligence, yet decades of research has yielded little consensus on its definition. Emerging from often conflicting studies is the provocative idea that intelligence evolved as an adaptation humans needed to keep up with - and survive in - challenging new environments. The Handbook of Intelligence addresses a broad range of issues relating to our cognitive and linguistic past. It is the first full-length volume to place intelligence in an evolutionary/cultural framework, tracing the development of the human mind, exploring differences between humans and other primates, and addressing human thinking and reasoning about its own intelligence and its uses. The works of pioneering thinkers - from Plato to Darwin, Binet to Piaget, Luria to Weachsler - are referenced to illustrate major events in the evolution of theories of intelligence, leading to the current era of multiple intelligences and special education programs. In addition, it examines evolutionary concepts in areas as diverse as creativity, culture, neurocognition, emotional intelligence, and assessment. Featured topics include: The evolution of the human brain from matter to mind Social competition and the evolution of fluid intelligence Multiple intelligences in the new age of thinking Intelligence as a malleable construct From traditional IQ to second-generation intelligence tests The evolution of intelligence, including implications for educational programming and policy. The Handbook of Intelligence is an essential resource for researchers, graduate students, clinicians, and professionals in developmental psychology; assessment, testing and evaluation; language philosophy; personality and social psychology; sociology; and developmental biology.

What effect does creativity have on individuals, groups and societies, and on the fundamental values on which they base their actions and institutions? What constitutes good and evil, right and wrong, and how does creativity disrupt these beliefs? 'The Ethics of Creativity' brings together an impressive collaboration of thinkers from several countries and disciplines to illuminate the thorny issues that arise when novel ideas and products brought forth by creativity collide with the rules and norms of what we believe to be right or good.

In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment.
Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.

This edited volume addresses the main lessons and legacies of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis from a global perspective. Despite the discoveries of recent research, there is still much more to be revealed about the handling of nuclear weapons before and during the Cuban Missile Crisis (CMC). Featuring contributions from a number of eminent international scholars of nuclear history, intelligence, espionage, political science and Cold War studies, An International History of the Cuban Missile Crisis reviews and reflects on one of the critical moments of the Cold War, focussing on three key areas. First, the volume highlights the importance of memory as an essential foundation of historical understanding and demonstrates how events that rely only on historical records can provide misleading accounts. This focus on memory extends the scope of the existing literature by exploring hitherto neglected aspects of the CMC, including an analysis of the operational aspects of Bomber Command activity, explored through recollections of the aircrews that challenge accounts based on official records. The editors then go on to explore aspects of intelligence whose achievements and failings have increasingly been recognised to be of central importance to the origins, dynamics and outcomes of the missile crisis. Studies of hitherto neglected organisations such as the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the British Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) both extend our understanding of British and American intelligence machinery in this period and enrich our understanding of key episodes and assessments in the missile crisis. Finally, the book explores the risk of nuclear war and looks at how close we came to nuclear conflict. The risk of inadvertent use of nuclear weapons is evaluated and a new proposed framework for the analysis of nuclear risk put forward. This volume will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, international history, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general.

The construct of intellectual disability has developed over centuries and has had different functions at different times; from a concept that was used to describe people from whom society needed protecting from in the late to 19th and early 20th centuries, to one used to describe people who are unable to cope in the current environment. It is now defined in terms of having a measured IQ below a fixed cut off point, usually 70, and a low level of adaptive behaviour also often specified in terms of being below a cut off point. Intellectual Disability demonstrates that neither IQ nor adaptive behaviour can be measured with sufficient accuracy for fixed cut off points to be used and suggests a number of new much more loosely defined constructs of intellectual disability based on clinical judgment.

Hypothetical thought involves the imagination of possibilities and the exploration of their consequences by a process of mental simulation. In this Classic Edition, Jonathan St B. T. Evans presents his pioneering hypothetical thinking theory; an integrated theoretical account of a wide range of psychological studies on hypothesis testing, reasoning, judgement and decision making. Hypothetical thinking theory is built on three key principles and implemented in a version of Evans' well-known heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning. The central claim of this book is that this theory can provide an integrated account of apparently diverse phenomena including confirmation bias in hypothesis testing, acceptance of fallacies in deductive reasoning, belief biases in reasoning and judgement, biases of statistical judgement and numerous characteristic findings in the study of decision making. Featuring a reflective and insightful new introduction to the book, this Classic Edition discusses contemporary theory on cognitive biases, human rationality and dual-process theories of higher cognition. It will be of great interest to researchers, post graduates as well as advanced undergraduate students.

The main topic of the book is a reconstruction of the evolution of nervous systems and brains as well as of mental-cognitive abilities, in short "intelligence" from simplest organisms to humans. It investigates to which extent the two are correlated. One central topic is the alleged uniqueness of the human brain and human intelligence and mind. It is discussed which neural features make certain animals and humans intelligent and creative: Is it absolute or relative brain size or the size of "intelligence centers" inside the brains, the number of nerve cells inside the brain in total or in such "intelligence centers" decisive for the degree of intelligence, of mind and eventually consciousness? And which are the driving forces behind these processes? Finally, it is asked what all this means for the classical problem of mind-brain relationship and for a naturalistic theory of mind.

The 'Flynn effect' is a surprising finding, identified by James R. Flynn, that IQ test scores have significantly increased from one generation to the next over the past century. Flynn now brings us an exciting new book which aims to make sense of this rise in IQ scores and considers what this tells us about our intelligence, our minds and society. Are We Getting Smarter? features fascinating new material on a variety of topics including the effects of intelligence in the developing world; the impact of rising IQ scores on the death penalty, cognitive ability in old age and the language abilities of youth culture; as well as controversial topics of race and gender. He ends with the message that assessing IQ goes astray if society is ignored. As IQ scores continue to rise into the twenty-first century, particularly in the developing world, the 'Flynn effect' marches on.

This popular book shows students how to increase their power to analyze problems and comprehend what they read using the Think Aloud Pair Problem Solving TAPPS] method. First it outlines and illustrates the method that good problem solvers use in attacking complex ideas. Then it provides practice in applying this method to a variety of comprehension and reasoning questions, presented in easy-to-follow steps. As students work through the book they will see a steady improvement in their analytical thinking skills and become smarter, more effective, and more confident problem solvers. Not only can using the TAPPS method assist students in achieving higher scores on tests commonly used for college and job selection, it teaches that problem solving can be fun and social, and that intelligence can be taught.

Changes in the Seventh Edition: New chapter on "open-ended" problem solving that includes inductive and deductive reasoning; extended recommendations to teachers, parents, and tutors about how to use TAPPS instructionally; Companion Website with PowerPoint slides, reading lists with links, and additional problems.

From Black Holes and Big Bangs to the Higgs boson and the infinitesimal building blocks of all matter, modern science has been spectacularly successful, with one glaring exception - intelligence. Intelligence still remains as one of the greatest mysteries in science.How do you chat so effortlessly? How do you remember, and why do you forget? From a basis of ten maxims What Makes You Clever explains the difficulties as well as the persuasive and persistent over-estimations of progress in Artificial Intelligence. Computers have transformed our lives, and will continue to do so for many years to come. But ever since the Turing Test proposed in 1950 up to IBM's Deep Blue computer that won the second six-game match against world champion Garry Kasparov, the science of artificial intelligence has struggled to make progress.The reader's expertise is engaged to probe human language, machine learning, neural computing, holistic systems and emergent phenomenon. What Makes You Clever reveals the difficulties that scientists grapple with in their efforts to understand your cleverness, and points to possible ways forward.

WINNER OF THE NEAVE BOOK PRIZE 2022 LONGLISTED FOR THE ORWELL PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING 2021 'One of the best books ever written about intelligence analysis and its long-term lessons' Christopher Andrew, author of The Defence of the Realm: The Authorized History of MI5 'An invaluable guide to avoiding self-deception and fake news' Melanie Phillips, The Times From the former director of GCHQ, Professor Sir David Omand, learn the methodology used by British intelligence agencies to reach judgements, establish the right level of confidence and act decisively. Full of revealing examples from a storied career, including key briefings with Prime Ministers and strategies used in conflicts from the Cold War to the present, in How Spies Think Professor Omand arms us with the tools to sort fact from fiction, and shows us how to use real intelligence every day.

As critics will note, psychometric tests are deeply flawed. Person-to-person differences in performance on a psychometric test are not informative about many things of great interest. An intelligence quotient (IQ) cannot characterize creativity or w- dom or artistic ability or other forms of specialized knowledge. An IQ test is simply an effort to assess an aptitude for success in the modern world, and individual scores do a mediocre job of predicting individual successes. In the early days of psychology, tests of intelligence were cobbled together with little thought as to validity; instead, the socially powerful sought to validate their power and the prominent to rationalize their success. In recent years, we have ob- ated many of the objections to IQ that were so forcefully noted by Stephen Jay Gould in The Mismeasure of Man. Nevertheless, IQ tests are still flawed and those flaws are hereby acknowledged in principle. Yet, in the analysis that follows, individual IQ test scores are not used; rather, average IQ scores are employed. In many cases - though not all - an average IQ is calculated from a truly enormous sample of people. The most common circ- stance for such large-scale IQ testing is an effort to systematically sample all men of a certain age, to assess their suitability for service in the military. Yet, it is useful and prudent to retain some degree of skepticism about the ability of IQ tests to measure individual aptitudes.

Hypothetical thought involves the imagination of possibilities and the exploration of their consequences by a process of mental simulation. In this Classic Edition, Jonathan St B. T. Evans presents his pioneering hypothetical thinking theory; an integrated theoretical account of a wide range of psychological studies on hypothesis testing, reasoning, judgement and decision making. Hypothetical thinking theory is built on three key principles and implemented in a version of Evans' well-known heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning. The central claim of this book is that this theory can provide an integrated account of apparently diverse phenomena including confirmation bias in hypothesis testing, acceptance of fallacies in deductive reasoning, belief biases in reasoning and judgement, biases of statistical judgement and numerous characteristic findings in the study of decision making. Featuring a reflective and insightful new introduction to the book, this Classic Edition discusses contemporary theory on cognitive biases, human rationality and dual-process theories of higher cognition. It will be of great interest to researchers, post graduates as well as advanced undergraduate students.

This volume provides an integrative review of the emerging and increasing use of network science techniques in cognitive psychology, first developed in mathematics, computer science, sociology, and physics. The first resource on network science for cognitive psychologists in a growing international market, Vitevitch and a team of expert contributors provide a comprehensive and accessible overview of this cutting-edge topic. This innovative guide draws on the three traditional pillars of cognitive psychological research-experimental, computational, and neuroscientific-and incorporates the latest findings from neuroimaging. The network perspective is applied to the fundamental domains of cognitive psychology including memory, language, problem-solving, and learning, as well as creativity and human intelligence, highlighting the insights to be gained through applying network science to a wide range of approaches and topics in cognitive psychology Network Science in Cognitive Psychology will be essential reading for all upper-level cognitive psychology students, psychological researchers interested in using network science in their work, and network scientists interested in investigating questions related to cognition. It will also be useful for early career researchers and students in methodology and related courses.