Intelligence played a crucial part in the genesis, management and resolution of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the world's closest brush with nuclear war. This study examines the role and performance of all three intelligence communities centrally involved in this event: American, Soviet and Cuban.

Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis examines for the first time the role and performance of all three intelligence communities centrally involved in this seminal event: American, Soviet and Cuban. The ways in which organizational and personality variables affect the political exploitation of intelligence is assessed followed by an analysis of the psychology of intelligence assessment, showing how common cognitive and motivational pathologies can explain crucial errors of inference and attribution made by all three intelligence communities. In closing, the lessons of the volume as a whole are reflected upon for the theory and practice of intelligence assessment, and for our understanding of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

This book brings together an influential sequence of papers that argue for a radical re-conceptualisation of the psychology of inference, and of cognitive science more generally. The papers demonstrate that the thesis that logic provides the basis of human inference is central to much cognitive science, although the commitment to this view is often implicit. They then note that almost all human inference is uncertain, whereas logic is the calculus of certain inference. This mismatch means that logic is not the appropriate model for human thought.
Oaksford and Chater's argument draws on research in computer science, artificial intelligence and philosophy of science, in addition to experimental psychology. The authors propose that probability theory, the calculus of uncertain inference, provides a more appropriate model for human thought. They show how a probabilistic account can provide detailed explanations of experimental data on Wason's selection task, which many have viewed as providing a paradigmatic demonstration of human irrationality.
Oaksford and Chater show that people's behavior appears irrational only from a logical point of view, whereas it is entirely rational from a probabilistic perspective. The shift to a probabilistic framework for human inference has significant implications for the psychology of reasoning, cognitive science more generally, and for our picture of ourselves as rational agents.

In this introduction presents a wide range of research on all aspects of thinking and reasoning. Thinking has been studied in many ways, and has been analyzed from many theoretical viewpoints. "Thinking and Reasoning" draws on a variety of approaches but locates its subject matter squarely within the theoretical framework of modern cognitive psychology and cognitive science. After a brief historical introduction, the book covers all core areas of thinking and reasoning: concepts and images, the relation between language and thought, logic and deductive reasoning, induction, hypothesis testing, statistical reasoning, decision making, problem solving, expertise, creativity, everyday thinking, the teaching of thinking skills, and the development of thinking.

"Thinking and Reasoning" includes an abundance of illustrative examples of reasoning problems, many of which the reader can attempt to solve before reading on to find the solution. This text will provide the ideal introduction to thinking and reasoning.

This is the true story of the kidnapping of Adolf Eichmann in Argentina by the Mossad, Israel's secret intelligence service. In a daring operation, a team of elite Mossad agents, under the personal command of Isser Harel, kidnapped Eichmann and smuggled him to Israel. Eichmann was found guilty of genocide and was executed two years later. This is Harel's account, revised and updated. The real names and details of all Mossad personnel are revealed, shedding new light on the politica acceptability of kidnapping.

In recent years the psychology of reasoning has undergone radical change, which can only be seen as a Kuhn-style scientific revolution. This shift has been dubbed 'New Paradigm'. For years, psychologists of reasoning focused on binary truth values and regarded the influence of belief as a bias. In contrast to this, the new paradigm puts probabilities, and subjective degrees of belief, centre stage. It also emphasises subjective psychological value, or utility; the way we reason within our own social environment ('social pragmatics'); and the crucial role of dual process theories. Such theories distinguish between fast, intuitive processes, and effortful processes which enable hypothetical thinking. The new paradigm aims to integrate the psychology of reasoning with the study of judgement and decision making, leading to a much more unified field of higher mental processing. This collection showcases these recent developments, with chapters on topics such as the difference between deduction and induction, a Bayesian formulation of faint praise, the role of emotion in reasoning, and the relevance of psychology of reasoning to moral judgement. This book was originally published as a special issue of Thinking & Reasoning.

Eternal Vigilance? seeks to offer reinterpretations of some of the major established themes in CIA history such as its origins, foundations, its treatment of the Soviet threat, the Iranian revolution and the accountability of the agency. The book also opens new areas of research such as foreign liaison, relations with the scientific community, use of scientific and technical research and economic intelligence. The articles are both by well-known scholars in the field and young researchers at the beginning of their academic careers. Contributors come almost equally from both sides of the Atlantic. All draw, to varying degrees, on recently declassified documents and newly-available archives and, as the final chapter seeks to show, all point the way to future research.

This volume brings together many of the leading researchers on human intelligence and cognition to address issues including definition, measurement, and instructional design. Its publication is a result of the Inaugural Spearman Seminar recently held at the University of Plymouth -- a seminar that is slated to become a regularly scheduled event providing a major international forum for the presentation of work on human abilities. To properly inaugurate this series, scientific experts in this field were asked to reflect on various issues raised but not resolved in Charles Spearman's classic work, "The Abilities of Man: Their Nature and Measurement, " published in 1927.
As a result of this approach, the book offers a unique overview of the way in which the study of human abilities has developed since 1927, and of current positions in the field. It offers exhaustive discussions on:
* the nature of cognitive abilities and intelligence -- a review of how the factor analytic approach to abilities which grew out of Spearman's work has developed, thoughts regarding the contribution of a cross-cultural perspective, and an elucidation of some of the conceptual issues which often cloud discussions of ability;
* different aspects of the contribution of cognitive psychology to our understanding of abilities -- the relationship between Spearman's "g" and working memory, links between attention and cognitive style, and the area of spatial abilities;
* recent developments in latent variable and item response modeling; and
* applied issues -- the argument that little predictive value can be gained in occupational selection from measuring abilities other than Spearman's "g," and the question of aptitude treatment interactions in education.

Excellence and the highest levels of performance in the arts and sciences, sports, and games have always been an object of fascination to both scientists and lay people. Only during the last 20 years have scientists studied these levels of performance in the laboratory in order to identify their mediating mechanisms. Contrary to the common belief that innate talents are the critical factors for exceptional performance, investigators have found that acquired skills, knowledge, and physiological adaptations in response to intense practice are the primary mechanisms, mediating the highest levels of performance.
This is the first and only book to examine "how" elite performers effect their exceptional accomplishments. The world's leading researchers on expert performance and creative achievement review theories and recent findings from many different domains of expertise on how experts optimize improvement in their performance and eventually attain excellence. Elite performers are shown to have engaged in deliberate-practice activities specifically designed to improve their performance from an early age. By age 20 they have often accumulated over 10,000 hours of practice The essential elements of deliberate practice, such as specific goals to improve performance, successive refinement through repetition, feedback and instruction, are explicated for different domains. Although the content of practice tasks will necessarily differ from domain to domain, investigators have found invariant characteristics for the optimal duration of practice sessions, maximal amounts of daily practice, the length of intense preparation (around 10 years), and ages of peak performance. Some of the book's chapters extend the review to the acquisition of everyday-life skills such as reading, to the performance of teams of experts, and to the development of creative achievement, geniuses, and artistic child prodigies. The book concludes with commentaries by several outstanding scientists in psychology, education, and history of science who discuss the generalizability of presented ideas and raise issues for future issues.
EXTRA COPY...It could be said that striving for excellence is what characterizes humanity, or perhaps what characterizes humanity at its best. Why do so few individuals ever reach the highest levels when so many start out on the Road to Excellence? In this book, the world's foremost researchers of expert performance in domains as diverse as sports, medicine, chess, and the arts explore the similarities and differences in the extended and strenuous Road to Excellence taken by the successful individuals in each domain. Their findings will intrigue and inspire readers who are themselves driven to achieve or who simply want to better understand the processes involved.

Recent concerns with the evaluation of argumentation in informal logic and speech communication center around nondemonstrative arguments that lead to tentative or defeasible conclusions based on a balance of considerations. Such arguments do not appear to have structures of the kind traditionally identified with deductive and inductive reasoning, but are extremely common and are often called "plausible" or "presumptive," meaning that they are only provisionally acceptable even when they are correct. How is one to judge, by some clearly defined standard, whether such arguments are correct or not in a given instance? The answer lies in what are called argumentation schemes -- forms of argument (structures of inference) that enable one to identify and evaluate common types of argumentation in everyday discourse.
This book identifies 25 argumentation schemes for presumptive reasoning and matches a set of critical questions to each. These two elements -- the scheme and the questions -- are then used to evaluate a given argument in a particular case in relation to a context of dialogue in which the argument occurred.
In recent writings on argumentation, there is a good deal of stress placed on how important argumentation schemes are in any attempt to evaluate common arguments in everyday reasoning as correct or fallacious, acceptable or questionable. However, the problem is that the literature thus far has not produced a precise and user-friendly enough analysis of the structures of the argumentation schemes themselves, nor have any of the documented accounts been as helpful, accessible, or systematic as they could be, especially in relation to presumptive reasoning. This book solves the problem by presenting the most common presumptive schemes in an orderly and clear way that makes them explicit and useful as precisely defined structures. As such, it will be an indispensable tool for researchers, students, and teachers in the areas of critical thinking, argumentation, speech communication, informal logic, and discourse analysis.

Of the many functions carried out by intelligence agencies, analysis and assessment has received comparatively little scholarly attention. In October 1994 the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) and the Intelligence Section of the International Studies Association (ISA) attended to this deficit by holding a special international conference on the subject in Ottawa. This volume is the product of that conference. The essays may be divided into four self-contained sets. The first examines critically the assessment systems now in place in Britain, the USA, Germany and Australia. The second looks at the bureaucratic dynamics of analysis and assessment. The changing ground that intelligence is currently experiencing is the focus of the third section. Finally, the volume considers the impact of new technologies and modes of communication on intelligence gathering and analysis.

Recent concerns with the evaluation of argumentation in informal logic and speech communication center around nondemonstrative arguments that lead to tentative or defeasible conclusions based on a balance of considerations. Such arguments do not appear to have structures of the kind traditionally identified with deductive and inductive reasoning, but are extremely common and are often called "plausible" or "presumptive," meaning that they are only provisionally acceptable even when they are correct. How is one to judge, by some clearly defined standard, whether such arguments are correct or not in a given instance? The answer lies in what are called argumentation schemes -- forms of argument (structures of inference) that enable one to identify and evaluate common types of argumentation in everyday discourse.
This book identifies 25 argumentation schemes for presumptive reasoning and matches a set of critical questions to each. These two elements -- the scheme and the questions -- are then used to evaluate a given argument in a particular case in relation to a context of dialogue in which the argument occurred.
In recent writings on argumentation, there is a good deal of stress placed on how important argumentation schemes are in any attempt to evaluate common arguments in everyday reasoning as correct or fallacious, acceptable or questionable. However, the problem is that the literature thus far has not produced a precise and user-friendly enough analysis of the structures of the argumentation schemes themselves, nor have any of the documented accounts been as helpful, accessible, or systematic as they could be, especially in relation to presumptive reasoning. This book solves the problem by presenting the most common presumptive schemes in an orderly and clear way that makes them explicit and useful as precisely defined structures. As such, it will be an indispensable tool for researchers, students, and teachers in the areas of critical thinking, argumentation, speech communication, informal logic, and discourse analysis.

This volume presents a state-of-the-science review of the most promising current European research -- and its historic roots of research -- on complex problem solving (CPS) in Europe. It is an attempt to close the knowledge gap among American scholars regarding the European approach to understanding CPS. Although most of the American researchers are well aware of the fact that CPS has been a very active research area in Europe for quite some time, they do not know any specifics about even the most important research. Part of the reason for this lack of knowledge is undoubtedly the fact that European researchers -- for the most part -- have been rather reluctant to publish their work in English-language journals.
The book concentrates on European research because the basic approach European scholars have taken to studying CPS is very different from one taken by North American researchers. Traditionally, American scholars have been studying CPS in "natural" domains -- physics, reading, writing, and chess playing -- concentrating primarily on exploring novice-expert differences and the acquisition of a complex skill. European scholars, in contrast, have been primarily concerned with problem solving behavior in artificially generated, mostly computerized, complex systems. While the American approach has the advantage of high external validity, the European approach has the advantage of system variables that can be systematically manipulated to reveal the effects of system parameters on CPS behavior. The two approaches are thus best viewed as complementing each other.
This volume contains contributions from four European countries -- Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain, and Germany. As such, it accurately represents the bulk of empirical research on CPS which has been conducted in Europe. An international cooperation started two years ago with the goal of bringing the European research on complex problem solving to the awareness of American scholars. A direct result of that effort, the contributions to this book are both informative and comprehensive.

The Bell Tolls. The Demand for and Assessment of Mental Ability: The Supply of and Demand for Intelligence. The Juxtaposition of Individual and Institutional Assessment. Mapping Social Policy against a Theoretical Backdrop: Academic Merit versus Fair Representation: A Case Study of Undergraduate Admissions Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. Mapping Admissions and Other Social Policy against a Philosophical Backdrop. Intelligence versus Higher Education as a Determinant of Worldly Success: The Sociopolitical Perspective. Academic Aptitude versus Achievement: Scientific Interpretations of Intelligence. Rationalist versus Empiricist Views: The Philosophical Backdrop on the Learnability of Intelligence. The Illusory Faces of Implicit Intelligence Policy. The Impact of Implicit Intelligence Policy on Explicit Policy: The Potential Value of Impact Analysis on Intelligence Policy. The Impact of Implicit Intelligence Policy on Explicit University Admissions Policy. Recommendations and Conclusions: Toward a Coherent and Explicit Intelligence Policy. From Here to a Coherent and Explicit Intelligence Policy. Appendixes. Index.

During the past two or three decades, research in cognitive science and psychology has yielded an improved understanding of the fundamental psychological nature of knowledge and cognitive skills that psychological testing attempts to measure. These theories have reached sufficient maturity, making it reasonable to look upon them to provide a sound theoretical foundation for assessment, particulary for the content of assessments. This fact, combined with much discontentedness over current testing practices, has inspired efforts to bring testing and cognitive theory together to create a new theoretical framework for psychological testing -- a framework developed for diagnosing learners' differences rather than for ranking learners based on their differences.
This volume presents some initial accomplishments in the effort to bring testing and cognitive theory together. Contributors originate from both of the relevant research communities -- cognitive research and psychometric theory. Some represent collaborations between representatives of the two communities; others are efforts to reach out in the direction of the other community. Taking fundamentally different forms, psychometric test theory assumes that knowledge can be represented in terms of one or at most a few dimensions, whereas modern cognitive theory typically represents knowledge in networks -- either networks of conceptual relationships or the transition networks of production systems.
Cognitively diagnostic assessment is a new enterprise and it is evident that many challenging problems remain to be addressed. Still, it is already possible to develop highly productive interactions between assessment and instruction in both automated tutoring systems and more conventional classrooms. The editors hope that the chapters presented here show how the reform of assessment can take a rigorous path.

During the past two or three decades, research in cognitive science and psychology has yielded an improved understanding of the fundamental psychological nature of knowledge and cognitive skills that psychological testing attempts to measure. These theories have reached sufficient maturity, making it reasonable to look upon them to provide a sound theoretical foundation for assessment, particulary for the content of assessments. This fact, combined with much discontentedness over current testing practices, has inspired efforts to bring testing and cognitive theory together to create a new theoretical framework for psychological testing -- a framework developed for diagnosing learners' differences rather than for ranking learners based on their differences.
This volume presents some initial accomplishments in the effort to bring testing and cognitive theory together. Contributors originate from both of the relevant research communities -- cognitive research and psychometric theory. Some represent collaborations between representatives of the two communities; others are efforts to reach out in the direction of the other community. Taking fundamentally different forms, psychometric test theory assumes that knowledge can be represented in terms of one or at most a few dimensions, whereas modern cognitive theory typically represents knowledge in networks -- either networks of conceptual relationships or the transition networks of production systems.
Cognitively diagnostic assessment is a new enterprise and it is evident that many challenging problems remain to be addressed. Still, it is already possible to develop highly productive interactions between assessment and instruction in both automated tutoring systems and more conventional classrooms. The editors hope that the chapters presented here show how the reform of assessment can take a rigorous path.

Genius. It is a word that invokes mystique. How did Einstein deduce the theory of special relativity? How did Rutherford intuit the inner secrets of the atom? Although (in hindsight) genius can appear to have been predictable, more often such thinking was inscrutable - like a bolt of insight arising from nowhere. Perhaps the minds of geniuses, prepared through the providence of genetics, were simply lucked upon by chance. Or perhaps their visionary insights were attained through divine intervention. But could there be an entirely different explanation? Could there be a more knowable process underlying genius? Genius Unmasked reveals the nature of genius. Roberta Ness asks, "Is breathtaking creativity really so magical? Or are there, instead, consistent maps that iconic scientists used to discover their imaginative ideas?" What this entertaining book demonstrates is that genius is achieved through a thinking process that is less mystical than it is systematic. Even the greatest of innovative minds used a cognitive tool box that can be opened and understood. Genius Unmasked is an adventure through the lives and minds of more than a dozen genius scientists. It unveils the formula behind their radical thinking. But this is not just a book of stories. Through explanation of innovation tools and their impressive demonstration, it will help you to learn for yourself how to become a better innovator. In the end, Genius Unmasked is a "how to" book for advancing your own personal creativity.

Proposing a new paradigm for Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), this ground-breaking book presents a research agenda for developing and testing that paradigm. It constitutes the first attempt to outline a comprehensive model of collaboration that integrates the cognitive/conceptual and social dynamics of groups. br br The challenge faced by all groups engaged in intellectual work is, on the one hand, to divide the task so that efforts of i individual members /i may proceed in parallel and, on the other hand, to synthesize their separate contributions to form a coherent whole. Addressing this challenge, Smith examines the general form of a theory of computer-based collaboration that extends across different tasks and working situations. He uses the work of Newell, Simon, and Anderson as a base from which to consider a group as a form of distributed information processing system. Within groups, there are constructs analogous to human long-term and short-term memory, conceptual processes, and problem solving and knowledge-construction strategies. He discusses two metacognitive issues -- awareness and control -- as they occur in collaborative behavior. And he reviews a number of advanced computer systems that support collaboration, focusing on their impact on the thinking and behavior of groups. br br Smith's theoretical framework combines elements of Information Processing System theory -- and its detailed process models of cognitive behavior -- with the situated perspective of activity theory. The book suggests new and useful ways of conceiving problems and solutions to all those interested in the ways in which people interact with each other and with computers to achievegoals. br

Highlights of the volume include pioneering essays on the methodology of intelligence studies by Michael Fry and Miles Hochstein, and the future perils of the surveillance state by James Der Derian. Two leading authorities on the history of Soviet/Russian intelligence, Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky, contribute essays on the final days of the KGB. Also, the mythology surrounding the life of Second World War intelligence chief, Sir William Stephenson, The Man Called Intrepid', is penetrated in a persuasive revisionist account by Timothy Naftali. The collection is rounded off by a series of essays devoted to unearthing the history of the Canadian intelligence service.

Highlights of the volume include pioneering essays on the methodology of intelligence studies by Michael Fry and Miles Hochstein, and the future perils of the surveillance state by James Der Derian. Two leading authorities on the history of Soviet/Russian intelligence, Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky, contribute essays on the final days of the KGB. Also, the mythology surrounding the life of Second World War intelligence chief, Sir William Stephenson, The Man Called Intrepid', is penetrated in a persuasive revisionist account by Timothy Naftali. The collection is rounded off by a series of essays devoted to unearthing the history of the Canadian intelligence service.

This is a major survey and assessment of U.S. intelligence activities over the last forty-five years. It offers a systematic and authoritative evaluation of American intelligence-gathering machinery: how it has been used, misused, and on occasion, ignored. The book has been hailed as "a splendid work, reflective and penetrating" by James R. Schlesinger; while Zbigniew Brzezinski describes Laqueur as "a man who understands the relationships between history and the world of secret services." Henry S. Rowen noted that Laqueur "brings a rare degree of analytical power to this important subject."

This comparative analysis of the sometimes fraught process of achieving democratic governance of security intelligence agencies presents material from countries other than those normally featured in the Intelligence Studies literature of North America and Europe. Some of the countries examined are former Communist countries and several in Latin America are former military regimes. Others have been democratic for a long time but still experience widespread political violence. Through a mix of single-country and comparative studies, major aspects of intelligence are considered, including the legacy of, and transition from, authoritarianism; the difficulties of achieving genuine reform; and the apparent inevitability of periodic scandals. Authors consider a range of methodological approaches to the study of intelligence and the challenges of analysing the secret world. Finally, consideration is given to the success - or otherwise - of intelligence reform, and the effectiveness of democratic institutions of control and oversight. This book was originally published as a special issue of Intelligence and National Security.

In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment.
Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.

We live in a time of relentless change. The only thing that?s certain is that new challenges and opportunities will emerge that are virtually unimaginable today. How can we know which skills will be required to succeed? In Five Minds for the Future, bestselling author Howard Gardner shows how we will each need to master "five minds" that the fast-paced future will demand: * The disciplined mind, to learn at least one profession, as well as the major thinking (science, math, history, etc.) behind it * The synthesizing mind, to organize the massive amounts of information and communicate effectively to others * The creating mind, to revel in unasked questions - and uncover new phenomena and insightful apt answers * The respectful mind, to appreciate the differences between human beings - and understand and work with all persons * The ethical mind, to fulfill one's responsibilities as both a worker and a citizen Without these "minds," we risk being overwhelmed by information, unable to succeed in the workplace, and incapable of the judgment needed to thrive both personally and professionally. Complete with a substantial new introduction, Five Minds for the Future provides valuable tools for those looking ahead to the next generation of leaders - and for all of us striving to excel in a complex world. Howard Gardner--cited by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the one hundred most influential public intellectuals in the world, and a MacArthur Fellowship recipient--is the Hobbs Professor of Cognition and Education at the Harvard Graduate School of Education.

Patients with frontal brain lesions show a striking disorder in arithmetical word problem solving; they tend to give impulsive responses, skipping one or more of the essential solution steps. The research presented here along with its implications for treatment was conducted by the Dutch Institute f