Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.

Churchill has gone down in history as one of the greatest leaders the world has ever known. From the day the Second World War was declared he stood out as the only man wanting to take offensive action. But is this accolade deserved? The first few years of the war were nothing short of disastrous, and author Stephen Napier shows how Churchill's strategies - and his desire not to be the first British prime minister to surrender the nation - brought the war effort to the brink of ruin and back again. Did his series of retaliatory raids in response to a German accidental bombing help cause the Blitz? Were plans already at large for the US to join the war, with Churchill as the primary puppet master? Napier explores all this and more in a shocking examination of Churchill's leadership using first-person accounts from his peers and his electorate.

Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. The author explains that defence planning is the product of interplay among political process, historical experience, and the logic of strategy. The theory of strategy best reveals both the nature and the working of defence planning. Political 'ends', strategic 'ways', and military 'means' all fed by reigning, if not always recognized, assumptions, organize the subject well with a template that can serve any time, place, and circumstance. The book is designed to help understanding of what can appear to be a forbiddingly complex as well as technical subject. A good part of the problem for officials charged with defence planning duties is expressed in the second part of the book's title. The real difficulty, which rarely is admitted by those tasked with defence planning duty, is that defence planning can only be guesswork. But, because defence preparation is always expensive, not untypically is politically unpopular, yet obviously can be supremely important, claims to knowledge about the truly unknowable persist. In truth, we cannot do defence planning competently, because our ignorance of the future precludes understanding of what our society will be shown by future events to need. The challenge faced by the author was to identify ways in which our problems with the inability to know the future in any detail in advance-the laws of nature, in other words-may best be met and mitigated. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning that hopefully will prove 'good enough'.

Defence Planning as Strategic Fact provides and elaborates on an "upstream" focus on the variegated organizational, political and conceptual practices of military, civilian administrative and political leaderships involved in defence planning, offering an important security and strategic studies supplement to the traditional "downstream" focus on the use of force. The book enables the reader to engage with the role of ideas in defence planning, of organizational processes and biases, path dependencies and administrative dynamics under the pressures of continuously changing domestic and international constraints. The chapters show how defence planning must be seen as a constitutive element of defence and strategic studies - that it is a strategic fact of its own which merits particular practical and scholarly attention. As defence planning creates the conditions behind every peace upheld or broken and every war won or lost, Defence Planning as Strategic Fact will be of great use to scholars of defence studies, strategic studies, and military studies. This book was originally published as a special issue of Defence Studies.

This book is about Japan-China power politics in the military, economic and propaganda domains. The post-2012 standoff over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has unveiled the antagonistic quality to Sino-Japanese relations, with an important addition: a massive information war that has cemented the two states' rivalry. Under the Xi and Abe administrations, China and Japan insisted on their moral position as benign and peaceful powers, and portrayed the neighbor as an aggressive revisionist. By highlighting great power rivalry, this study makes a theoretical contribution in favor of the power politics behind Sino-Japanese identities. The work is multidisciplinary in spirit and aims to speak both to academics and to general readers who might be curious of understanding this fascinating if worrisome facet of Sino-Japanese relations. In turn, the assessment of the diplomatic, economic and identity clash between the world's second and third wealthiest states provides a window in understanding the international politics of the Asia-Pacific in the early 21st Century. This book is an invaluable resource for scholars, Area Studies and Political Science students and policymakers alike.

How nonstate military strategies overturn traditional perspectives on warfare Since September 11th, 2001, armed nonstate actors have received increased attention and discussion from scholars, policymakers, and the military. Underlying debates about nonstate warfare and how it should be countered is one crucial assumption: that state and nonstate actors fight very differently. In Nonstate Warfare, Stephen Biddle upturns this distinction, arguing that there is actually nothing intrinsic separating state or nonstate military behavior. Through an in-depth look at nonstate military conduct, Biddle shows that many nonstate armies now fight more "conventionally" than many state armies, and that the internal politics of nonstate actors-their institutional maturity and wartime stakes rather than their material weapons or equipment-determines tactics and strategies. Biddle frames nonstate and state methods along a continuum, spanning Fabian-style irregular warfare to Napoleonic-style warfare involving massed armies, and he presents a systematic theory to explain any given nonstate actor's position on this spectrum. Showing that most warfare for at least a century has kept to the blended middle of the spectrum, Biddle argues that material and tribal culture explanations for nonstate warfare methods do not adequately explain observed patterns of warmaking. Investigating a range of historical examples from Lebanon and Iraq to Somalia, Croatia, and the Vietcong, Biddle demonstrates that viewing state and nonstate warfighting as mutually exclusive can lead to errors in policy and scholarship. A comprehensive account of combat methods and military rationale, Nonstate Warfare offers a new understanding for wartime military behavior.

This book argues that the global development and security agendas are merging. No longer is the language of security confined within the straitjacket of the state and associated national security concerns. The spotlight is shifting to the legitimate security concerns of human beings. The book examines how development is promoted by global governance institutions and how this has impacted on human security in the 1990s. Caroline Thomas focuses on the effects of trade, finance, and investment liberalisation on deepening inequality. She explores different approaches for addressing the deepening inequality which threatens the economy at all levels, from the household, to the community, to the global. The book investigates reformist and transformist visions of the future and the contrasting policies tabled for their achievements. Thomas argues that ultimately human security requires a different developmental strategy.

This book examines a series of questions associated with the increasing application and implications of biometrics in contemporary everyday life.

In the wake of the events of 9/11, the reliance on increasingly sophisticated and invasive technologies across a burgeoning field of applications has accelerated, giving rise to the term 'biometric state'. This book explores how these 'virtual borders' are created and the effect they have upon the politics of citizenship and immigration, especially how they contribute to the treatment of citizens as suspects. Finally and most importantly, this text argues that the rationale of 'governing through risk' facilitates pre-emptory logics, a negligent attitude towards 'false positives', and an overall proliferation of borders and ubiquitous risk, which becomes integral to contemporary everyday life, far beyond the confined politics of national borders and frontiers.

By focusing on specific sites, such as virtual borders in airports, trusted traveller programs like the NEXUS program and those delivered by airlines and supported by governmental authorities (TSA and CATSA respectively), this book raises critical questions about the emerging biometric state and its commitment and constitution vis-a-vis technology of 'governing through risk'.

This book will be of interest to students of biopolitics, critical security, surveillance studies and International Relations in general.

Benjamin J. Muller is assistant professor in International Relations at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada. He completed his PhD in the School of Politics and International Studies at Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland, in 2005."

A TLS and a Prospect Book of the Year A revelatory, explosive new analysis of the military today. Over the first two decades of the twenty-first century the British Army fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, at considerable financial and human cost. Yet neither war achieved its objectives. Award-winning journalist Simon Akam questions why, and provides challenging but necessary answers. Composed from assiduous documentary research, field reportage, and hundreds of interviews, this book is a strikingly rich, nuanced portrait of one of our pivotal national institutions in a time of great stress. This is as much a book about Britain, and about the politics of failure, as it is about the military.

A new look at the crusaders, which shows how they pursued long-term plans and clear strategic goals Medieval states, and particularly crusader societies, often have been considered brutish and culturally isolated. It seems unlikely that they could develop "strategy" in any meaningful sense. However, the crusaders were actually highly organized in their thinking and their decision making was rarely random. In this lively account, Steve Tibble draws on a rich array of primary sources to reassess events on the ground and patterns of behavior over time. He shows how, from aggressive castle building to implementing a series of invasions of Egypt, crusader leaders tenaciously pursued long-term plans and devoted single-minded attention to clear strategic goals. Crusader states were permanently on the brink of destruction; resources were scarce and the penalties for failure severe. Intuitive strategic thinking, Tibble argues, was a necessity, not a luxury.

This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.

This yearbook continues SIPRI's annual analyses of developments in major armed conflicts, in conflict prevention, management and resolution, and in peacekeeping, developments in chemical and biological weapons, new military technology, world military expenditure, nuclear explosions, arms production, the arms trade, and nuclear, chemical, and biological arms control. Special Studies in this volume: BL area studies of the Middle East, Russia, and Europe BL armed conflict prevention, management and resolution BL information on multilateral observer, peacekeeping and electoral operations BL the comprehensive test ban treaty BL multilateral military-related export control measures BL the trade in major conventional weapons and conventional arms control

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is India's powerful neighbor since the first year of 1950's. Before that, without prejudice to the issue of its status of sovereignty or Chinese suzerainty, Tibet had de facto fulfilled the role. That fact of past unfamiliarity with Chinese way of politico-diplomatic expressions, aided by China's unilaterally adopted adversarial posture towards India, makes it imperative for India's strategic community to study China's moves very carefully, and draw conclusions for the purpose of managing the strained relationship. This book is a compilation of such observations, analyses and inferences. Study of PRC's various initiatives which have direct or indirect bearing on India and the methods adopted to implement those is a tough call. This is so because in dealing with inter-state relations, the Chinese leadership arrogate the right of defining the issues according to their partisan perceptions and exclusive stratagem. To that extent, papers contained in this book narrate the factual and honest impressions which China's policies and actions, as these relate to India's concerns, depict. The purpose of this book would be served if these impressions are taken note of in PRC's future bilateral discourse in true spirit of mutuality.

The Triangle of Death in Iraq, south of Baghdad, was a raging inferno of insurgent activity in August of 2006; by November 2007, attacks had been suppressed to such an extent as to return the area to near obscurity. In the intervening months, the U.S. Army 4th Battalion, 31st Infantry ("Polar Bears") employed a counterinsurgency approach that set the conditions for a landmark peace agreement that holds to this day. With a focus on counterinsurgency, this book is the first to look at the breadth of military operations in Yusifiyah, Iraq, and analyze the methods the Polar Bears employed. It is a story not of those who fought in the Triangle of Death, but of how they fought.

Military strategy is concerned with the translation of armed force into intended political effects. As such, it constitutes one of the most important activities of the past two centuries; and yet during this period it has not always been practised very effectively. In this book, John Stone seeks to explain why this has been the case by examining various instances of strategic practice drawn from the period between the eighteenth century and the present day. He contends that, to be truly effective, strategy must faithfully reflect the political context in which it is formulated. Where strategy has failed, it is frequently because its practitioners have paid undue attention to military-technical matters at the expense of politics.

Logistics have become a principle, if not a governing factor, in modern military operations. Armies need to be fed and supplied and the larger the army, the greater the logistical difficulties that have to be overcome. Two thousand years ago, when communications were far more primitive, the size of armies was limited by the difficulties of supply. It was because the Romans developed a sophisticated supply system that they were able to maintain large armies in the field - armies that conquered much of the then known world. In Caesar's Great Success: Sustaining the Roman Army on Campaign the authors examine and detail the world's first ever fully-developed logistical supply system - the forerunner of today's complex arrangements. This includes an examination of the sea, river and land transportation of food while on campaign, and of how the food was assembled at the operational bases and subsequently distributed. The defence of the Roman food supplies, and especially of lines of communication, was an important factor in Caesar's operational planning, as was interdicting the enemy's supplies. The eating habits of Caesar's men are considered and what items could be obtained locally by forage and which were taken by requisition - and how much food a legionnaire was expected to carry on campaign. With this, the nature of the actual food consumed by the legionnaires is therefore examined and sample recipes are provided with each chapter of the book to enable the reader to relive those momentous days when Caesar and Rome ruled the world.

Welcome to cyberspace - where all your computing and connection needs are on demand, and where security threats have never been more massive.A world without the advantages and convenience provided by cyberspace and the internet of things is now unimaginable. But do we truly grasp the threats to this massive, interconnected system? And do we really understand how to secure it? After all, cyber security is no longer just a technology problem; the effort to secure systems and society are now one and the same.This book discusses cyber security and cyber policy in an effort to improve the use and acceptance of security services. It argues that a substantive dialogue around cyberspace, cyber security and cyber policy is critical to a better understanding of the serious security issues we face.

This book provides a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of India's strategic culture in the era of globalization. It examines dominant themes that have governed India's foreign and security policy and events which have shaped India's role in global politics. The author Examines the traditional and new approaches to diplomacy and the state's response to internal and external conflicts; Delineates policy pillars which are required to protect the state's strategic interests and forge new relationships in the current geopolitical climate; Compares the domestic and international security policies followed during the tenures of Narsimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh; and Analyzes how the Narendra Modi era has brought on changes in India's security strategy and the use of soft power and diplomacy. With extensive additions, drawing on recent developments, this edition of the book will be a key text for scholars, teachers and students of defence and strategic studies, international relations, history, political science and South Asian studies.

On April 4, 1945, United States Army units from the 89th Infantry Division and the 4th Armored Division seized Ohrdruf, the first of many Nazi concentration camps to be liberated in Germany. In the weeks that followed, as more camps were discovered, thousands of soldiers came face to face with the monstrous reality of Hitler's Germany. These men discovered the very depths of human - imposed cruelty and depravity: rail road cars stacked with emaciated, lifeless bodies; ovens full of incinerated human remains; warehouses filled with stolen shoes, clothes, luggage, and even eyeglasses; prison yards littered with implements of torture and dead bodies; and-perhaps most disturbing of all - the half-dead survivors of the camps. For the American soldiers of all ranks who witnessed such powerful evidence of Nazi crimes, the experience was life altering. Almost all were haunted for the rest of their lives by what they had seen, horrified that humans from ostensibly civilized societies were capable of such crimes. Military historian John C. McManus sheds new light on this often overlooked aspect of the Holocaust. Drawing on a rich blend of archival sources and thousands of first hand accounts-including unit journals, interviews, oral histories, memoirs, diaries, letters, and published recollections - Hell Before Their Very Eyes focuses on the experiences of the soldiers who liberated Ohrdruf, Buchenwald, and Dachau and their determination to bear witness to this horrific history.

The sudden transformation of the Cold War security order in 1989 altered the structure of the European state system, and necessitates the striking of a new balance between the economic, political and military requirements of security. This volume focuses on the most important institutions of European security, the European Union and NATO. Both institutions are expanding, especially eastwards, in terms of their respective roles and membership. This double expansion raises many questions; most crucially, whether Europe will be a two-speed security order, which suggests openess, inclusiveness and the emergence of an anarchical society, or a two-tiered security order, which suggests a continued hierachical security system with all of its associated historical liabilities. -- .

This book focuses on the disagreements which existed in British political and military circles over nuclear strategy during the period from 1945 to 1964. Based on recently released documents, the book argues that British policy in this important area was much more ambiguous and much less coherent than is usually supposed.

- When do individuals radicalise? - Can terrorism be rational? - How can we define terrorism? - What is the role of women in terrorism? - Can states be terrorist? World leading experts answer these questions in Contemporary Terrorism Studies, the first textbook to provide a multi-disciplinary, methodologically plural, and richly diverse introduction to terrorism studies. Contemporary Terrorism Studies covers the main approaches in terrorism studies, and is structured into three comprehensive sections. The first on 'The State of Terrorism Studies' maps the development and historical context of the discipline, and looks to the future of terrorism studies. Part two on 'Issues and Debates in Terrorism Studies' examines key contentious questions and debates such as the role of women, technology, and the media in terrorism. The final part, part three on 'Countering Terrorism' focuses specifically on counterterrorism: it's instruments, foreign policy, legal frameworks, and organisations. Overall, text will engage students, and establish a confident understanding of the subject. The textbook has been developed with pedagogical features to help enhance student learning. Each chapter contains case studies to highlight real world examples of political violence, questions for reflection to encourage critical thinking, and suggestions for further reading which provide useful sources for further reading, essays, and exam preparation. Furthermore, a consistent, accessible tone, and jargon-free writing style makes Contemporary Terrorism Studies the clearest guide to understanding terrorism. Digital formats and resources Contemporary Terrorism Studies is available for students and institutions to purchase in a variety of formats, and is supported by online resources. - The e-book offers a mobile experience and convenient access along with hyperlinks to question pointers, and a library of web links, helping you to broaden your knowledge and understanding terrorism studies: www.oxfordtextbooks.co.uk/ebooks - Student resources: additional case studies, guidance on accessing databases, pointers for tackling the questions for reflection, and suggested web links organised by chapter are available online. - Lecturer resources: customisable PowerPoint slides to adapt and use in teaching