War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran's relationship with the West and an expert's estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be. Authors Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay of the Center for the National Interest utilize their years studying and informing America's foreign policy in the Middle East to bring to life the possible outcomes of an American military intervention in Iran. Such a decision would not only have catastrophic consequences on the Persian Gulf, but would also endanger the whole world's delicate economy by heightening instability in a fragile but resource-rich region. Written for anyone with an interest in the future of American foreign policy, War With Iran explores what every player has at stake in the current crisis by analyzing every tension adjacent to it; from America's staunch support of Israel to Iran's own dogged pursuit of advanced nuclear capabilities. Controversial, timely and thoroughly researched, this story stands as a preliminary caution against what would be a devastating meltdown of diplomacy, for which-if peace be the goal-there is always time.

Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS's highly successful 2018 study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report highlights several components of a successful surprise, including exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes illustrating potential future surprises.

This book, first published in 1992, examines defence issues as the twentieth century drew to a close. With the end of the Cold War, many of the threats to European security, such as the threat of nuclear war, disappeared. New ones, however, were emerging. The rise of nationalism, the spread of weapons of mass destruction to politically unstable countries, the increase in world population, the debt crisis - all these contributed to security problems that needed to be resolved. The book assesses the possibilities for future European defence and the role that the United States would play in it: will it be prepared to stay in Europe under European leadership, or must it dominate? It also considers the capabilities offered by new military technology and the need for control of weapons of mass destruction.

In October, 1962, the Cuban missile crisis brought human civilization to the brink of destruction. On the 50th anniversary of the most dangerous confrontation of the nuclear era, two of the leading experts on the crisis recreate the drama of those tumultuous days as experienced by the leaders of the three countries directly involved: U.S. President John F. Kennedy, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, and Cuban President Fidel Castro. Organized around the letters exchanged among the leaders as the crisis developed and augmented with many personal details of the circumstances under which they were written, considered, and received, Blight and Lang poignantly document the rapidly shifting physical and psychological realities faced in Washington, Moscow, and Havana. The result is a revolving stage that allows the reader to experience the Cuban missile crisis as never before-through the eyes of each leader as they move through the crisis. The Armageddon Letters: Kennedy, Khrushchev, Castro in the Cuban Missile Crisis transports the reader back to October 1962, telling a story as gripping as any fictional apocalyptic novel.

When states' survival is at stake, do states behave according to norms, do states refrain from using certain weapons based on norms against their use? Adachi presents a comprehensive analytical framework for analysing norm dynamics, incorporating the existing literature, while expanding the norm life cycle model to address contestation of, resistance to diffusion of, and disappearance of norms. He also examines the changing nature of international society, and how the evolving characteristics of this society change how norms are shared. His focus is on norms relating to the use and non-use of weapons, with examples of how norms developed in different places and at different times with regard to particular types of weapons. From the banning of gun use in Japan under Bushido, to international bans on chemical weapons and the foundation of norms on nuclear weapons, he looks not only at how such norms come about, but how they can become contested or disappear. A valuable contribution to the literature on norms in International Relations, this volume will be of particular interest to scholars and students with an interest in the control of arms.

When states' survival is at stake, do states behave according to norms, do states refrain from using certain weapons based on norms against their use? Adachi presents a comprehensive analytical framework for analysing norm dynamics, incorporating the existing literature, while expanding the norm life cycle model to address contestation of, resistance to diffusion of, and disappearance of norms. He also examines the changing nature of international society, and how the evolving characteristics of this society change how norms are shared. His focus is on norms relating to the use and non-use of weapons, with examples of how norms developed in different places and at different times with regard to particular types of weapons. From the banning of gun use in Japan under Bushido, to international bans on chemical weapons and the foundation of norms on nuclear weapons, he looks not only at how such norms come about, but how they can become contested or disappear. A valuable contribution to the literature on norms in International Relations, this volume will be of particular interest to scholars and students with an interest in the control of arms.

Globalization and technology have created new challenges to national governments. As a result, they now must share power with other entities, such as regional and global organizations or large private economic units. In addition, citizens in most parts of the world have been empowered by the ability to acquire and disseminate information instantly. However this has not led to the type of international cooperation essential to deal with existential threats. Whether governments can find ways to cooperate in the face of looming threats to the survival of human society and our environment has become one of the defining issues of our age. A struggle between renewed nationalism and the rise of a truly global society is underway, but neither global nor regional institutions have acquired the skills and authority needed to meet existential threats, such as nuclear proliferation. Arms control efforts may have reduced the excesses of the Cold War, but concepts and methodologies for dealing with the nuclear menace have not kept up with global change. In addition, governments have shown surprisingly little interest in finding new ways to manage or eliminate global and regional competition in acquiring more or better nuclear weapons systems. This book explains why nuclear weapons still present existential dangers to humanity and why engagement by the United States with all states possessing nuclear weapons remains necessary to forestall a global catastrophe. The terms of engagement, however, will have to be different than during the Cold War. Technology is developing rapidly, greatly empowering individuals, groups, and nations. This can and should be a positive development, improving health, welfare, and quality of life for all, but it can also be used for enormous destruction. This book reaches beyond the military issues of arms control to analyze the impact on international security of changes in the international system and defines a unique cooperative security agenda.

Peaceful War is an epic analysis of the unfolding drama between the clashing forces of the Chinese dream and American destiny. Just as the American experiment evolved, Deng Xiaoping's China has been using "Hamiltonian means to Jeffersonian ends" and borrowed the idea of the American Dream as a model for China's rise. The Chinese dream, as reinvented by President Xi Jinping, continues Deng's experiment into the twenty-first century. With a possible "fiscal cliff" in America and a "social cliff" in China, the author revisits the history of Sino-American relations to explore the prospects for a return to the long-forgotten Beijing-Washington love affair launched in the trade-for-peace era. President Barack Obama's Asia pivot strategy and the new Silk Road plan of President Xi could eventually create a pacific New World Order of peace and prosperity for all. The question is: will China ultimately evolve into a democratic nation by rewriting the American Dream in Chinese characters, and how might this transpire?

Since 1969, the United Kingdom always has always had one submarine armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles underwater, undetected, in constant communication, ready at a set notice to fire at targets anywhere in the world. This is part of its Trident Programme, which includes the development, procurement, and operation of the current generation of British nuclear weapons, as well as the means to deliver them. Operated by the Royal Navy and based at Clyde Naval Base on Scotland's west coast, it is the most expensive and most powerful capability of the British military forces. In 2016, the United Kingdom had to decide on whether to go ahead and build the next generation of nuclear submarines that will allow the UK to remain in the nuclear business well into the second half of this century. The book presents the political, cultural, technical, and strategic aspects of Trident to provide a thoughtful overview of the UK's complex relationship with nuclear weapons. The authors, both scholars and practitioners, bring together diverse perspectives on the issue, discussing the importance of UK nuclear history as well as the political, legal, and diplomatic aspects of UK nuclear weapons-internationally and domestically. Also addressed are the new technical, military, and strategic challenges to the UK nuclear thinking and strategy.

This book explores the possibilities for the smaller nations of Europe to make positive contributions to the verification of reductions in conventional forces and arms, a chemical weapons convention and a comprehensive nuclear test ban. .

For decades, the United States has led the effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons, both among potential adversaries and among its allies and partners. The current state of deterrence and of the nonproliferation regime, however, is open to many doubts. What happens if the nonproliferation regime should break down altogether? What happens if extended deterrence should fail, and allies no longer believe in the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella? What happens when the world has not 9 but 11, 15, 18, or even more nuclear powers? This study explores how such a world might function and what it would mean for our present conceptions of deterrence, for the place of the United States in the international order, and for international order itself.

This book presents a rounded critique of the conventional wisdom about the legality of nuclear weapons by experts in international and constitutional law. Part I addresses the status of nuclear weapons under international law. Scholars on one side of the question draw upon treaties and international custom to argue that most uses of nuclear weapons are illegal and that even mere possession of such weaponry is legally unjustifiable. Others argue that law cannot be imposed on the nuclear weapons states without their consent and that nuclear weapons provide deterrence that binds the superpowers in a peaceful balance of power. Part I concludes with a comprehensive bibliography on nuclear weapons and international law. Part II, the section that focuses on nuclear weapons and American constitutional law, offers widely divergent approaches and conclusions. Although there is no explicit prohibition of such weapons in the United States Constitution, several contributors suggest that the advent of nuclear weapons has so changed the milieu in which constitutional institutions operate that many accepted conclusions must be reexamined. Part III explores the effects of nuclear weapons on the environment and the medical consequences of nuclear war.

The Challenges of Nuclear Non-Proliferation is an exhaustive survey of the many aspects of non-proliferation efforts. It explains why some nations pursued nuclear programs while others abandoned them, as well as the challenges, strengths, and weaknesses of non-proliferation efforts. It addresses key issues such as concerns over rogue states and stateless rogues, delivery systems made possible by technology, and the connection between nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, examining whether non-proliferation regimes can deal with these threats or whether economic or military sanctions need to be developed. It also examines the feasibility of eliminating or greatly reducing the number of nuclear weapons. A broad survey of one of today's great threats to international security, this text provides undergraduates students with the tools needed to evaluate current events and global threats.

Is the world ready for nuclear Jihad?

"Showdown with Nuclear Iran "is a gripping and detailed expose of Iran's relentless pursuit of atomic weapons and its apocalyptic goal of wiping Israel off the face of the earth. Michael D. Evans, who has been working in the Middle East for the last three decades, cuts through the official lies an ddeceptions of the Iranian government and reveals in terrifying detail:

• how close the radical Islamic republic is to fulfilling its nuclear ambitions
• how Iran's president believes he has a divine mission to destroy Israel and cripple the United States in a nuclear holocaust
• and what America must do to avert this global disaster

With the Middle East poised at the brink, "Showdown with Nuclear Iran "provides much-needed perspective on the current crisis and the dire threat that a nuclear Iran poses to the existence of Israel and global stability.

"The most detailed account of the Iranian regime's determination, policy, and plan to acquire military nuclear capabilities. Mike Evans delves into the roots of the Iranian revolution and explores Iranian history to better understand a major challenge to the western world. he compellingly analyzes policy options for confronting this threat." ―Lt. Gen. Moshe Ya'Alon, red., former Chief of Staff, Israeli Defense Force

The Challenges of Nuclear Non-Proliferation is an exhaustive survey of the many aspects of non-proliferation efforts. It explains why some nations pursued nuclear programs while others abandoned them, as well as the challenges, strengths, and weaknesses of non-proliferation efforts. It addresses key issues such as concerns over rogue states and stateless rogues, delivery systems made possible by technology, and the connection between nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, examining whether non-proliferation regimes can deal with these threats or whether economic or military sanctions need to be developed. It also examines the feasibility of eliminating or greatly reducing the number of nuclear weapons. A broad survey of one of today's great threats to international security, this text provides undergraduates students with the tools needed to evaluate current events and global threats.

Cosmopolitan Dystopia shows that rather than populists or authoritarian great powers it is cosmopolitan liberals who have done the most to subvert the liberal international order. Cosmopolitan Dystopia explains how liberal cosmopolitanism has led us to treat new humanitarian crises as unprecedented demands for military action, thereby trapping us in a loop of endless war. Attempts to normalize humanitarian emergency through the doctrine of the 'responsibility to protect' has made for a paternalist understanding of state power that undercuts the representative functions of state sovereignty. The legacy of liberal intervention is a cosmopolitan dystopia of permanent war, insurrection by cosmopolitan jihadis and a new authoritarian vision of sovereignty in which states are responsible for their peoples rather than responsible to them. This book will be of vital interest to scholars and students of international relations, IR theory and human rights. -- .

Rising concern over the increasing threat of nuclear war impelled the 2017 United Nations (UN) negotiations and adoption by 122 UN member states of a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The Treaty seeks to ban nuclear weapons globally in the same way chemical and biological weapons have already been prohibited. This book provides the first in-depth comprehensive analysis of the implications and possibilities of the new treaty, drawing on the insights of international relations, international laws, and disarmament experts and specialists from Europe, America, the Asia-Pacific, and the UN. In a context where existing nuclear weapon states have so far declined to be party to the new treaty, the book examines not only its emergence and significance but also the prospects and possibilities for its implementation, the challenges associated with verifying the new agreement, the role of both civil society and governments, and the treaty's wider implications in addressing regional and global nuclear threats. This book was originally published as a special issue of Global Change, Peace & Security but additionally includes the special section articles on the treaty in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

In the Treaty of Versailles and the SALT II Treaty, years of painstaking diplomatic effort were lost when the United States Senate refused to provide its consent to ratification. This book provides a comparative assessment of executive-congressional relations and the arms control treaty ratification process. A team of historians, political scientists and policy analysts looks at seven case studies, from Versailles to the INF Treaty, to explore the myriad ways to win and lose treaty ratification battles. This book constitutes a marriage of scholarship and public policy. Michael Krepon is the editor of "Commercial Observation Satellites and International Security". Dan Caldwell has also written "The Dynamics of Domestic Politics and Arms Control: The SALT II Treaty Ratification Debate".

Drawing on data from three different insurgent groups within the Cambodian conflict, the book shows how the social backgrounds of combatants and commanders cause them to pursue different strategies during a decade-long transition into various postconflict settings, thereby creating different "pathways to peace." By highlighting different vertical and horizontal ranks within the insurgent groups and the role of belligerents' resources and networks, this qualitative study tackles an imbalance in the current research on Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR), which tends to focus on top-down planning and the technicalities of reintegration programs. It helps explain why conflict dynamics and path-dependencies differ among various social groups within the field of insurgency. By analyzing the social position, life courses and postconflict trajectories of various groups within the insurgency, the book emphasizes the diversity of transitions to peace and "brings the social back in." The study is grounded in in-depth fieldwork conducted in Cambodia and its diaspora, including 168 firsthand interviews with ex-combatants from groups as diverse as Buddhist monks and Christian converts, intellectuals, powerful warlords, civil servants, and female communist soldiers. Using these details, the book not only builds a theory of the social structure and internal logic of armed groups, but also emphasizes the crucial importance of fighters' own narratives about their roles in society. Therefore, in addition to advancing a sociological perspective on post-conflict transitions, the study also provides the most detailed treatment to date of the social fields of the insurgents who fought in the civil war that followed the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime in 1979. These social fields continue to have a profound influence on Cambodian politics, even today.

Fifty years into the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) regime, the risks of nuclear war, terrorism, and the threat of further proliferation remain. A lack of significant progress towards disarmament will cast doubt upon the viability of the NPT. By recognizing that certain fissile materials are essential to every nuclear weapon and that controlling their usage provides the foundation for international efforts to limit their spread, this book presents a comprehensive framework for nuclear disarmament. Based upon phased reductions, Shea provides a mechanism for the disposal of weapon-origin fissile material and controls on peaceful nuclear activities and non-explosive military uses. He explores the technological means for monitoring and verification, the legal arrangements required to provide an enduring foundation, and a financial structure which will enable progress. This book will be invaluable to professional organizations, arms control NGOs, government officials, scientists, and politicians. It will also appeal to academics and postgraduate researchers working on security studies, disarmament diplomacy and the politics and science of verification.

Weapons proliferation is one of the most pressing global concerns following the end of the Cold War. Despite the absence of an overarching superpower conflict, armaments and related technologies have continued to spread throughout the international system. This has been particularly true in areas like East Asia and the Middle East, where the traditional two party arms races are not readily apparent. This text addresses these concerns and shortcomings using data on fourteen specific military technological innovations that diffused throughout the international system from 1960 to 1997.

First published in 1979. The report of the Labour Party Defence Study Group, which met from early 1975 to mid-1977, represents a unique attempt to portray defence policy in the context of disarmament and the need to restructure and control the institutions of defence - in particular the defence industry. The report presented the fullest study made by any British political party concerning the implications and consequences of its stated defence policy, and embodied an examination of defence from the perspective of approaches of disarmament. At the same time, the search for a new policy in international relations was harmonised with the further development of a new industrial strategy, concentrating upon the potential for converting part of military industry to civil work. This work which presents a distinctive intervention in the general debate concerning defence policy, industrial and technological planning, economic priorities and public policy, will be of considerable relevance to both specialists in each of these fields as well as the general reader.

Water resources and related issues are of great significance in 21st century politics. In Africa, for example, hydropolitics affect politics and policymaking at the local, national, and international levels. To investigate water politics, this unique work focuses on the issue transboundary water governance in Southern and Eastern Africa. Based on extensive field research, it offers a comparative study of the Orange Senqu and Nile basins in Africa, arguing that both causal and behavioral factors (such as localization and trust building) drive the multi-leveled development of cooperative management norms and foster the creation of regional communities of interest. The book combines theory, analysis, and fieldwork within the framework of Constructivism as well as a wide range of examples to identify and analyze the nature of norms in hydropolitics. By doing so, it will help shape the debate on how water conflict and cooperative governance should evolve and will interest anyone studying African politics, hydropolitics, and issues of development.

Drawing on his knowledge of the comparative history of warfare and arms control across preliterate, ancient, medieval, and modern polities, Richard Dean Burns focuses longitudinally on such perennial arms control issues as negotiation, verification, and compliance. Although he does not, for example, allege that war elephants and nuclear weapons are of equal destructive potential, he does discern instructive similarities between Carthage in 202 BCE and Iraq in 1991 AD. Arms control and disarmament measures have been pursued and adopted throughout the history and prehistory of human warfare: sometimes as protocols recognizing evolving humanitarian taboos; sometimes as terms imposed by the victors on the vanquished; and sometimes as accords negotiated between rivals fearful of mutual destruction. Arms control measures ramped up in significance and urgency at the dawn of the 20th century by the introduction of rapid-fire weapons, aircraft, chemical agents, and submarines, and again at mid-century with the advent of weapons of mass destruction-nuclear, chemical, and bacteriological-with sophisticated delivery systems. As Burns makes clear, the enormous increase in destructive potential brought about by thermonuclear weaponry essentially changed the nature of war and, therefore, of arms control.

This book suggests a new bargain between the NPT nuclear weapon states and the non-NPT nuclear weapons possessor states, mainly India and Pakistan, through a regional arrangement to help move towards universalization of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The author analyses nuclear proliferation drivers to understand why states acquire and justify possession of nuclear weapons even though most nuclear weapon states no longer are faced with an existential threat to their national security. This study also identifies various challenges being faced by the NPT based nuclear nonproliferation regime, which if left unaddressed, could unravel the nonproliferation regime. It also offers the history of confidence building measures between India and Pakistan, which could be a useful reference for negotiating a Regional Nonproliferation Regime (RNR) in the future.