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This book examines failure in the urbanisation of Northwest China as a result of government industrial policies that have impacted on the economic development of the region. By looking at the under-researched provinces of Gansu, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia, which make up a quarter of China's territory, Zheng and Deng challenge the common story of China's miracle growth and reveal the dark side of the country's pursuit of modernity. Severe weather conditions, chronic drought, permanent lack of oxygen and unforgiving terrain in the Northwest make farming, manufacture and services difficult simply because people tend not to stay. Yet, China's current political system forces growth to take place even though basic conditions and prerequisites for market-based growth are missing. This volume analyses 'ghost cities' and social tension in the process of 'forced urbanisation' in which huge amount of resources are wasted, the local environment is systematically damaged and ordinary people's basic rights are brutally violated in the name of higher GDP and greater government glory.
From Jens Nordvig--named the #1 currency strategist in the 2013 Institutional Investor survey
What does the crisis in the Eurozone mean for our markets--and how can you protect your portfolio against crises in Europe?
Little has been written about the instability of the Euro, but it's a very real threat to investors worldwide, as well as to the global economy. Swings in global asset markets have been increasingly driven by developments in Europe. This is something new: in the past, Europe was one of the most stable parts of the global economy, and its typically minor economic fluctuations would have little bearing on US equity markets.
Now, Europe's economic and political developments will be a persistent source of shocks for global financial markets.
As an investor, you need a roadmap. This book is that roadmap.
"The Fall of the Euro" describes the Eurozone's unstable equilibrium and explains why a breakup of the Eurozone is still a possibility.
Nomura's global head of currency strategy and one of the world's top experts on the Euro, Jens Nordvig gives us a detailed and fascinating explanation of this precarious situation, providing the information, insight, and authoritative analysis you need to make the wisest investment decisions possible.
A riveting analysis of one of the most important currencies in the world--certainly the most unstable of the major currencies--"The Fall of the Euro" covers: The history of the Euro--and how it differs from other global currencies The problematic origins of the Euro--which is grounded more in politics than economics How politics will affect the next crisis in the Eurozone--and what we can do about it What-if scenarios of Eurozone breakup possibilities--with insights that will surprise you
The original version of the Euro was not resilient enough to survive a major crisis. European policymakers are attempting to construct a new version of the currency, but its specific form remains highly uncertain. Will it be a hard currency? Will it be a soft currency? Or will it break up?
If the path ahead involves a disorderly breakup of the Eurozone, the instability to come will be much more intense than what we have seen to date.
Go beyond the rhetoric of the politicians and the journalists who write about them and get a financial expert's assessment of the real issues at hand. Jens Nordvig explains the state of the Euro's present position in the global economy with levels of objectivity and expertise you will find nowhere else.
"The Fall of the Euro" gives you the critical information you need to prepare your investments before the next crisis in the Eurozone--which is, in Nordvig's view, inevitable.
Praise for "The Fall of the Euro"
""Nordvig brings a keen insight into markets and economics that he ably combines with a brisk, no-nonsense narrative. This is essential reading for market players, investors, and prognosticators of the future of the eurozone."" -- Richard Clarida, C. Lowell Harriss Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Columbia University; Global Strategic Advisor, Pimco
""Jens Nordvig's book artfully combines a master economist's framework, a seasoned market participant's advice, an historian's far-reaching perspective, and a European citizen's passionate case for an open discussion of the way forward for the world's largest economic bloc."" -- Scott Bessent, Chief Investment Officer, Soros Fund Management LLC
""Jens Nordvig was one of the first to analyze the economic, legal, and political consequences of the euro splitting asunder. Whether or not you share his pessimism about the future of the euro project, Nordvig's guide to the crisis is a compelling and essential read."" -- Gavyn Davies, Chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, former Goldman Sachs Chief Economist
""In this bold, highly readable book, Jens Nordvig beautifully highlights the tensions between the politics and the economics that are at the heart of the euro crisis. A must read for anyone who cares about the future of Europe."" -- Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
""I learned much from The Fall of the Euro and I thoroughly recommend it."" -- Simon Wolfson, CEO of Next plc and sponsor of the Wolfson Economics Prize
""Needs to be read by all those demanding brave policy from Europe's timid elite."" -- Tom Keene, Editor at Large, Bloomberg Television & Radio; Host of Bloomberg Surveillance
This book describes the ontology structure, types of actors, their potential actions, and ways that actions can affect the things that are part of the conflict. An ontology of unconventional conflict supports the understanding of unconventional conflict in general. It also provides a tool for understanding and investigating a particular unconventional conflict. The ontology specifies the relations among the elements and supports creating a description of a particular situation. Unconventional conflict spans the range from natural disasters through human disagreements to irregular warfare (up to conventional war). Unconventional conflict involves damage to things and injuries to people; however, the critical factors are the actions, reactions, and opinions of people, including political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information components. This ontology supports and will appeal to military strategists, political scientists, economists, and politicians in understanding their planning for, and managing of these conflicts.
The objective of the theory of public finance is to determine the optimal scales of government interventions or expenditures in different areas and the optimum modes of financing these expenditures. The theories continuously search for better, more acceptable and easier-to-implement solutions to the problems encountered. This book, in its third edition, continues to present, in detail, the theories of public finance, fundamental principles, and decisions taken by the Government on the basis of the guidelines yielded by these theories. This book exposes the students to various facets of public finance which develops analytical frameworks to: Address the issues of efficient allocation of resources between private, public and mixed goods Ensure equitable distribution of tax burden among individuals Find ways of minimizing inefficiency of the tax structure Study the statutory and economic incidence of different types of taxes Examine the implications of government borrowing Develop the rationale of distributing economic or fiscal responsibilities and tax powers among different tiers of government. The book makes the comprehension of the subject easier by developing simple mathematical models to derive the major results in each of the above areas, and by explaining the economic intuition of the results in detail. The concepts are illustrated with the help of simple examples taken from the Indian economy. Moreover, the book assesses India's economic policies in the light of the theories discussed. Another distinguishing feature of the book is that it contains a large number of review questions and numerical problems on every topic discussed, to help the students apply the tools and techniques learnt, and thereby, develop a sound understanding of the subject. This textbook is designed to serve the needs of undergraduate and postgraduate students of economics for the paper Public Finance/Public Economics. NEW TO THE THIRD EDITION: Introduces a new Chapter 11 on Goods and Services Tax (GST) Incorporates updated data (in the tables) throughout, including the newly revised tax slabs.
In "Honest Numbers and Democracy," Walter Williams offers a revealing history of policy analysis in the federal government and a scorching critique of what's wrong with social policy analysis today. Williams, a policy insider who witnessed the birth of domestic policy analysis during the Johnson administration, contends that the increasingly partisan U.S. political environment is vitiating both "honest numbers" -- the data used to direct public policy -- and, more importantly, honest analysts, particularly in the White House.
Drawing heavily on candid off-the-record interviews with political executives, career civil servants, elected officials and Washington-based journalists, Williams documents the steady deformation of social policy analysis under the pressure of ideological politics waged by both the executive and legislative branches. Beginning with the Reagan era and continuing into Clinton's tenure, Williams focuses on the presidents' growing penchant to misuse and hide numbers provided by their own analysts to assist in major policy decisions.
"Honest Numbers and Democracy" is the first book to examine in-depth the impact of the electronic revolution, its information overload, and rampant public distrust of the federal government's data on the practice of policy analysis.
A hard-hitting account of the factors threatening the credibility of the policymaking process, this book will be required reading for policy professionals, presidential watchers, and anyone interested in the future of U.S. democracy.
This book examines how credit and finance schemes affect the financial lives of vulnerable people around the world. These schemes include payday lending, matched savings, and financial literacy in the Global North, and micro-credit and mobile banking in the Global South. Buckland sets these schemes within the context of financialization and seeks to identify strengths, weaknesses, and ways to enhance the well-being of vulnerable people. This book's coverage of a wide range of financial products and geographic regions makes for a unique and innovative perspective on this topic. It presents a balanced critique of credit and finance schemes under the assumption that reform is the most practical means to improve human well-being.
The Friedman-Lucas Transition in Macroeconomics: A Structuralist Approach considers how and to what extent monetarist and new classical theories of the business-cycle can be regarded as approximately true descriptions of a cycle's causal structure or whether they can be no more than useful predictive instruments. This book will be of interest to upper-division undergraduates, graduate students, researchers and professionals concerned with practical, theoretical and historical aspects of macroeconomics and business-cycle modeling.
As cross-border transactions and economic integration among nations have increased, formerly neglected differences among the domestic economic policies of nations have become progressively exposed to international scrutiny. National governments trying to pursue autonomous polices have found their decisions more difficult and the consequences of their decisions more uncertain. These trends have in turn provoked debate about whether governments should cooperate more fully when making their policy decisions. In this book, part of the Integrating National Economies series, Ralph A. Bryant considers how much national governments might benefit from coordination of their macroeconomic stabilization polices, the circumstances in which they might cooperation; and how ambitious that cooperation should be. Bryant argues that the potential benefits of attempted coordination are often greater than the potential risks. When national decisionmakers take into account the cross-border spillovers of their actions, and especially if the are prepared to consider mutually beneficial adjustments of their policy instruments, each cooperating nation may be able to attain higher levels of welfare. Bryant discusses circumstances in which efforts to coordinate could prove counterproductive. On the whole, however, he contends that efforts to coordinate policies internationally typically deserve examination and, frequently, can be expected to advance the common interests of nations' citizens. Bryant identifies and analyzes different forms of intergovernmental cooperation for monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies. One of the contributors of the book compares and evaluates three different analyticalperspectives: the traditional policy-optimization approach favored by economists, the rule analysis of international regime environments, and the institutional analysis developed by scholars of international relations and political science. The book concludes with an overview of historical experience and practical recommendations for the medium-run and long-run evolution of international macroeconomic cooperation.
American cities continue to experience profound fiscal crises. Falling revenues cannot keep pace with the increased costs of vital public services, infrastructure development and improvement, and adequately funded pensions. Chicago presents an especially vivid example of these issues, as the state of Illinois's rocky fiscal condition compounds the city's daunting budget challenges. In The People's Money, Michael A. Pagano curates a group of essays that emerged from discussions at the 2018 UIC Urban Forum. The contributors explore fundamental questions related to measuring the fiscal health of cities, including how cities can raise revenue, the accountability of today's officials for the future financial position of a city, the legal and practical obstacles to pension reform and a balanced budget, and whether political collaboration offers an alternative to the competition that often undermines regional governance.Contributors: Jered B. Carr, Rebecca Hendrick, Martin J. Luby, David Merriman, Michael A. Pagano, David Saustad, Casey Sebetto, Michael D. Siciliano, James E. Spiotto, Gary Strong, Shu Wang, and Yonghong Wu
"Living with Debt" focuses on how to manage sovereign debt safely and effectively. The report traces the history of sovereign borrowing in Latin America, releases a new data set on public debt, and analyzes the evolution of debt, highlighting the recent trend toward higher levels of domestic debt and lower external borrowing. The report also includes a detailed study of the costs of sovereign defaults such as those that have affected some Latin American countries in recent years.
Drawing from in-depth country studies, the report notes the development of domestic debt markets, which have the potential to increase the availability of finance for the private sector and enhance financial markets' stability more generally. However, the report concludes that safely managing domestic debt presents somewhat different--but not necessarily simpler--challenges. In particular, the broader range of debt instruments interacts with the variety of shocks to which economies are exposed, requiring a more comprehensive approach to debt sustainability analysis, which the report outlines.
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt
Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled "Sovereign Debt." With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference.Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academicsDetails the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risksExplores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt
The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. "Sovereign Debt" examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
This book explores how, through spirituality and the development of character, Islamic financial institutions and Muslim communities can integrate their businesses with contemporary social responsibility initiatives to produce positive social and environmental impact. From the looming environmental crisis to the divide between mainstream and extremist interpretations of Islam, the book addresses significant questions facing Muslim communities - and humanity - and demonstrates why Islam should sit `at the table' with other faiths and ethical traditions discussing humanity's great obstacles. Unlike existing literature, this work explores the intersections between classical Islamic ethics and spirituality, contemporary Islamic finance and economic markets, and select sustainability and impact initiatives (such as the Equator Principles and UN Principles of Responsible Investment) designed to make the worlds of business and finance responsible for the environments in which they operate and the communities that support them. Drawing on his years of experience in Islamic banking, Moghul addresses these applications in light of real-world practices and dilemmas, demonstrating how Islamic organizations and Muslim communities should embrace the broad range of stakeholders countenanced by the Shari'ah in conversations that affect them. By situating his exploration of Islamic finance in the light of the much larger critical issues of balance, justice, and moderation in Islamic praxis, Moghul creates an interdisciplinary book that will appeal to academics and researchers in economics, finance, business, government and policy, and law.
This is a unique insider account of the new world of unfettered finance. The author, an Asian regulator, examines how old mindsets, market fundamentalism, loose monetary policy, carry trade, lax supervision, greed, cronyism, and financial engineering caused both the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and the current global crisis of 2008 2009. This book shows how the Japanese zero interest rate policy to fight deflation helped create the carry trade that generated bubbles in Asia whose effects brought Asian economies down. The study s main purpose is to demonstrate that global finance is so interlinked and interactive that our current tools and institutional structure to deal with critical episodes are completely outdated. The book explains how current financial policies and regulation failed to deal with a global bubble and makes recommendations on what must change.
Johannes E. Schmittat befasst sich mit den verschiedenen Effekten der Verbriefung von Handelsforderungen und untersucht deren tatsachlichen Nutzen auf Basis der bestehenden Corporate Finance Literatur empirisch. Mit Hilfe von Clinical Studies und Case Studies analysiert er einzelne Transaktionen intensiv mit dem Ziel eines umfangreichen Verstandnisses der Verbriefungen und gibt Einblicke in die Finanzierungsentscheidungen der Unternehmen und der hierfur wichtigen Einflussfaktoren."
This project, based on the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) data set, researched how PEFA can be used to shape policy development in public financial management (PFM) and other major relevant policy areas such as anticorruption, revenue mobilization, political economy analysis, and fragile states. The report explores what shapes the PFM system in low- and middle-income countries by examining the relationship between political institutions and the quality of the PFM system. Although the report finds some evidence that multiple political parties in control of the legislature is associated with better PFM performance, the report finds the need to further refine and test the theories on the relationship between political institutions and PFM. The report addresses the question of the outcomes of PFM systems, distinguishing between fragile and nonfragile states. It finds that better PFM performance is associated with more reliable budgets in terms of expenditure composition in fragile states, but not aggregate budget credibility. Moreover, in contrast to existing studies, it finds no evidence that PFM quality matters for deficit and debt ratios, irrespective of whether a country is fragile or not. The report also explores the relationship between perceptions of corruption and PFM performance. It finds strong evidence of a relationship between better PFM performance and improvements in perceptions of corruption. It also finds that PFM reforms associated with better controls have a stronger relationship with improvements in perceptions of corruption compared to PFM reforms associated with more transparency. The last chapter looks at the relationship between PEFA indicators for revenue administration and domestic resource mobilization. It focuses on the credible use of penalties for noncompliance as a proxy for the type of political commitment required to improve tax performance. The analysis shows that countries that credibly enforce penalties for noncompliance collect more taxes on average.
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
This book identifies and explores the mechanisms linking political institutions and variation in capitalist systems. A strong correlation exists between varieties of political regimes and varieties of capitalism: majoritarian political regimes are correlated with liberal market economies (LMEs) and consensus political regimes are correlated with coordinated market economies (CMEs). Still, correlation is not causation. Empirical findings illustrate that partisanship and policy legacies, the number of political parties, electoral rules, and constitutional constraints are significant indicators of LMEs and CMEs. Arsenault finds that majoritarian institutions create an environment of adversarial politics and strong competition between actors, which makes credible commitment to nonmarket coordination mechanisms unlikely. Consensus institutions, on the other hand, promote an atmosphere of cooperation and coordination between actors, thus encouraging credible commitment to nonmarket coordination mechanisms. Qualitative case studies of Germany, Britain, and New Zealand confirm the quantitative findings and suggest that political regimes were instrumental in shaping the economic adjustment paths of these countries during the era of liberalization in the 1980s.
This book upturns many established ideas regarding the economic and social history of Quebec, the Canadian province that is home to the majority of its French population. It places the case of Quebec into the wider question of convergence in economic history and whether proactive governments delay or halt convergence. The period from 1945 to 1960, infamously labelled the Great Gloom (Grande Noirceur), was in fact a breaking point where the previous decades of relative decline were overturned - Geloso argues that this era should be considered the Great Convergence (Grand Rattrapage). In opposition, the Quiet Revolution that followed after 1960 did not accelerate these trends. In fact, there are signs of slowing down and relative decline that appear after the 1970s. The author posits that the Quiet Revolution sowed the seeds for a growth slowdown by crowding-out social capital and inciting rent-seeking behaviour on the part of interest groups.
This state-of-the art collection of papers analyses various aspects of the theory of externalities and public goods. The contributions employ new analytical techniques like the aggregative game approach, and discuss the philosophical underpinnings of the theory. Furthermore, they highlight a range of topical empirical applications including climate policy and counterterrorism. This contributed volume was written in memory of Richard C. Cornes, a pioneer in the theory of externalities and public goods.
In this book, sociologists, philosophers, and economists investigate the conceptual issues around the performativity of economics over a variety of disciplinary contexts and provide new case studies illuminating this phenomenon. In featuring the latest contributions to the performativity debate the book revives discussion of the fundamental questions: What precise meaning can we attribute to the notion of performativity? What empirical evidence can help us recognize economics as performative? And what consequences does performativity have for contemporary societies? The contributions demonstrate how performativity can serve as a powerful conceptual resource in dealing with economic knowledge, as an inspiring framework for investigating performative practices, and as an engine of discovery for thinking of the economic proper.
The Manual on Fiscal Transparency provides an authoritative account and explanation of the revised IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency ('the Code'). It expands and updates the 2001 edition of the Manual, which has been used by countries undertaking assessments of the transparency of their fiscal management practices (including so-called 'fiscal ROSCs'), legislatures, civil society organizations, economists, and financial analysts. Numerous new examples of implementation of the Code by countries in all regions of the world and at different levels of development are included.The Manual, which reflects a public comment process, is also supplemented by the revised ""Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency"". It identifies numerous benefits from fiscal transparency, including providing citizens with information to hold governments accountable for their policy choices, informing and improving the quality of economic policy decisions, highlighting potential risks to the fiscal outlook, and easing a country's access to international capital markets.
This book is an analysis of the specificities of public film funding on an international scale. It shows how public funding schemes add value to film-making and other audio-visual productions and provides a comprehensive analysis of today's global challenges in the film industry such as industry change, digital transformation, and shifting audience tastes. Based on insights from fields such as cultural economics, media economics, media management and media governance studies, the authors illustrate how public spending shapes the financial fitness of national and international film industries. This highly informative book will help both scholars and practitioners in the film industry to understand the complexity of issues and the requirements necessary to preserve the social benefits of film as an important cultural good.
The general review of the European Union's budget scheduled for the years 2008 and 2009 offers a unique opportunity for reflections. Explicitly this review is "without taboos" so that also substantive changes can and should be debated. Without doubt much better budgetary systems can be imagined compared to the status quo of the EU budget which is the outcome of a path-dependent process and where many details are only understandable by taking account of the historical context of past decisions. However, even if much better systems could be designed in theory, each reform suggestion, in the end, must pass the reality check of fi- ing unanimous support from all 27 member countries. This restriction heavily l- its the universe of available reform options. Faced with that difficulty the ZEW project team embarked on the adventure to think about possible reform options for the future EU own resource system. This volume documents the conclusions. At first sight our reform suggestion may - pear to be of a rather piecemeal nature since we recommend a reform model with strong ties to the status quo. Nevertheless, we are convinced that our seemingly minor changes will set the budget on a path towards a more rational European budget which, in the end, will create leeway for financing European policies with a true European value added. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the German Federal Min- try of Finance in conducting this study.
The United States is moving toward a possible catastrophic fiscal collapse. The country may not get there, but the risk is unmistakable and growing. The 'fiscal language' of taxes, spending, and deficits has played a huge and under appreciated role in the decisions that have pushed the nation in this dangerous direction. Part of the problem is that by focusing only on the current year, deficits permit politicians to ignore what is looming down the road. The bigger problem lies in the belief, shared by people on the left and the right alike, that 'tax cuts' and 'spending cuts' lead to smaller government, when in fact the characterization of any new policy as a change in 'taxes' or in 'spending' is purely a matter of labeling. This book proposes a better fiscal language for US budgetary policy, rooted in economic fundamentals such as wealth distribution and resource allocation in lieu of 'taxes' and 'spending'.
This textbook equips instructors and students with an overview of the existing literature so that the latter can attain an overall understanding of macroeconomic and microeconomic public finance. The literature on public finance has grown dramatically with theoretical studies and empirical analysis, and much of the focus has been on macroeconomic effects of public services. The standard textbook offerings, however, are mainly restricted to microeconomic topics of public finance. This text intends to fill this gap by presenting a theoretical-based, comprehensive explanation of public finance. Particular emphasis is directed at developing tools that can be applied theoretically and empirically to clarify essential economic concerns in the current public sector in advanced countries, including Japan. Such concerns include the macroeconomic effect of fiscal policy, the dependence on bonds for covering government deficits, and social security reform. The main text explains the standard concepts of public finance, and the appendix offers various advanced topics. The material will facilitate an understanding of how to investigate changes in the public sector, interpret results, and basically do research on fiscal policy. The textbook will be of value to a broad range of course offerings, including those generally focused on fiscal policy, on social security reform and on tax reform.
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